The Notre Dame Fightin' Irish are one of America's most publicly bet teams. Chalk them up with the New York Yankees, Dallas Cowboys and LA Lakers as one of the teams America loves to bet, no matter the price. It can be very difficult to make money betting on the boys from South Bend. In the last 10 years they've only had 3 winning seasons against the spread ('00, '02, '05) and were an unprofitable 56-61-2. However, in the last 5 years it has gotten much worse ATS for the Irish. ZERO profitable seasons and a 25-33-2 record.
Early this week CFB season win totals were released both in brick n' mortar shops in Las Vegas and the offshore books. The numbers on the Irish ranged from 8.5 to 9.5 wins. Upon seeing 9.5 wins, I personally channeled my inner Major League and shouted, "It’s too high!" The number has since been pounded out by the market to either over 8.5 -160/+130 or over 9 +100/-130. You may find something different, but let’s go with that for now.
At the same time, many individual college football game lines have been released. As I paged through them I noticed Notre Dame was a favorite in almost all of them and in most cases, a fairly heavy favorite. This made wonder if there is some kind of inefficiency in the way the market is viewing Notre Dame, and if so, how can I take advantage of it?
The best opportunity required you to jump on this number early. If you bet under 9.5 when it opened and over 8.5 now, you create a nice middle opportunity, which is equivalent to being offered +1900 for Notre Dame to finish with exactly 9 wins, an incredible value. The 9.5 o/u is now gone, eliminating this opportunity, but there must be some other way we can find some value in this wager?
The table shows the Notre Dame schedule with the available spreads, the moneyline conversion and the conversion to the win probability. Total the probabilities and see how the market views their win total. I had to make a few assumptions, for games where the lines weren't available I assumed a 90% chance to win, which might be a tad high, but only lends more credence to my point. The South Florida game isn’t listed but I've read through social media outlets that many sharps view the South Florida game at a -1.
Opponent | Notre Dame Spread | Moneyline Conversion | Win Probability |
vs. South Florida | -1 | -116 | 51% (est.) |
@ Michigan | -3 | -151 | 57% |
vs Michigan St. | -8.5 | -280 | 70% |
@ Pittsburgh | -4.5 | -195 | 63% |
@ Purdue | -10 | -427 | 77% |
vs. Air Force | -11.5 | -543 | 81% |
vs Southern California | -4.5 | -195 | 63% |
vs Navy | NA | NA | 90% (est.) |
@ Wake Forest | NA | NA | 90% (est.) |
vs Maryland | -10 | -427 | 77% |
vs Boston College | NA | NA | 90% (est.) |
@ Stanford | 5 | 166 | 36% |
Total Wins | 8.46 |
You might be asking about how this table projects Notre Dame’s odds at 8.5 and that's the line? Yes, but over 8.5 wins is -160, so its not true equality, it’s heavily shaded to the over. What all this analysis is telling me is the current market views Notre Dame as WINNING games straight up, but not covering the spread. The market is willing to back Notre Dame to win games at a higher rate than the current lines would suggest. Additionally, recent history would suggest Notre Dame is not a good "bet on" team against the spread.
How can we take advantage of this knowledge? I will be trying to find spots where Notre Dame is likely to win the game straight up, but not against the spread. The three that stick out at me are -4.5 at Pittsburgh (road favorites against a team with a veteran Offensive line and expected to contend in the Big East), -11.5 vs. Air Force (a well disciplined team also with a veteran offensive line, a unique offense, and 8 returning starters) and -8.5 vs. Michigan St. (an 11 win team from last year, with a great returning backfield).
This post should help you to understand a different way to approach to your handicapping. By stumbling on what appeared to be a discrepancy in the market, digging down to see if it was there, I think I've identified a few situations where playing against the Irish would be a great idea.
