The whole premise of this blog is that the sports betting market is inefficient compared with financial or other markets. None of this became more apparent then today when many online sites released their NFL season wins totals. NFL season win totals have been available in Las Vegas starting last week. Sadly, for those of us stuck in Middle America, we are relegated to offshore online sports wagering sites. These books, gaining less for their brands by releasing totals early, have the luxury of waiting around to see how the market views the opening Vegas lines before adjusting. The most dramatic example of this has been the Cincinnati Bengals, who opened at o/u 7.5 wins, but moved down to anywhere from 6.5 to 5.5.
The following table compiles the current over/under win totals for all 32 NFL Teams from three separate books. To really put this in perspective I’ve incorporated the changing vigorish (vig) into each price. Common theory holds for season win totals that every -050 increase in vig is equal to 0.5 wins. I’ve incorporated the vig into the “Price with Vig” column to give an accurate comparison.
| Sportsbetting | | Bookmaker | | BetOnline | |||||||
| Vig | Price | | Vig | Price | | Vig | Price | ||||
| Wins | to Over | w/ Vig | | Wins | to Over | w/ Vig | | Wins | to Over | w/ Vig | |
| | | ||||||||||
| Arizona | 6.5 | -125 | 6.60 | | 7 | -105 | 6.90 | | 7 | -110 | 6.95 |
| Atlanta | 10.5 | 115 | 10.20 | | 10 | -150 | 10.35 | | 10.5 | -105 | 10.40 |
| Baltimore | 10.5 | -115 | 10.50 | | 10.5 | -105 | 10.40 | | 11 | -115 | 11.00 |
| Buffalo | 5.5 | -115 | 5.50 | | 5.5 | -105 | 5.40 | | 5 | -130 | 5.15 |
| Carolina | 4.5 | -115 | 4.50 | | 4.5 | -125 | 4.60 | | 4.5 | -115 | 4.50 |
| Chicago | 8.5 | -135 | 8.70 | | 8.5 | -115 | 8.50 | | 9.5 | 100 | 9.35 |
| Cincinnati | 5.5 | -130 | 5.65 | | 5.5 | -145 | 5.80 | | 6.5 | -110 | 6.45 |
| Cleveland | 6.5 | 100 | 6.35 | | 6.5 | -129 | 6.64 | | 6.5 | -115 | 6.50 |
| Dallas | 9 | 100 | 8.85 | | 9 | -115 | 9.00 | | 9 | -110 | 8.95 |
| Denver | 5.5 | -135 | 5.70 | | 5.5 | -125 | 5.60 | | 6 | -110 | 5.95 |
| Detroit | 7.5 | -120 | 7.55 | | 8 | -105 | 7.90 | | 7.5 | -120 | 7.55 |
| Green Bay | 11.5 | 100 | 11.35 | | 11.5 | -105 | 11.40 | | 11.5 | -120 | 11.55 |
| Houston | 8.5 | 100 | 8.35 | | 8.5 | -125 | 8.60 | | 8 | -120 | 8.05 |
| Indianapolis | 9.5 | -135 | 9.70 | | 10 | -105 | 9.90 | | 10 | -110 | 9.95 |
| Jacksonville | 6 | -130 | 6.15 | | 6.5 | -105 | 6.40 | | 6 | -115 | 6.00 |
| Kansas City | 7.5 | -115 | 7.50 | | 8 | 110 | 7.75 | | 8 | -105 | 7.90 |
| Miami | 7.5 | -105 | 7.40 | | 8 | 120 | 7.65 | | 8 | -110 | 7.95 |
| Minnesota | 7 | -115 | 7.00 | | 7.5 | 130 | 7.05 | | 6.5 | -125 | 6.60 |
| New England | 11.5 | -135 | 11.70 | | 11.5 | -125 | 11.60 | | 11.5 | -110 | 11.45 |
| New Orleans | 10 | -105 | 9.90 | | 10 | -129 | 10.14 | | 10 | -115 | 10.00 |
| New York G | 9.5 | 110 | 9.25 | | 9.5 | 115 | 9.20 | | 9.5 | -110 | 9.45 |
| New York J | 10 | -105 | 9.90 | | 10 | -125 | 10.10 | | 10 | -120 | 10.05 |
| Oakland | 7 | 110 | 6.75 | | 7 | -110 | 6.95 | | 7 | -115 | 7.00 |
| Philadelphia | 10.5 | -130 | 10.65 | | 10.5 | -135 | 10.70 | | 10.5 | -130 | 10.65 |
| Pittsburgh | 10.5 | -125 | 10.60 | | 10.5 | -125 | 10.60 | | 11 | -110 | 10.95 |
| San Diego | 10 | 105 | 9.80 | | 10 | -115 | 10.00 | | 10 | -115 | 10.00 |
| San Francisco | 7.5 | -140 | 7.75 | | 8 | 110 | 7.75 | | 8 | -120 | 8.05 |
| Seattle | 5.5 | -135 | 5.70 | | 6 | -130 | 6.15 | | 7 | 100 | 6.85 |
| St. Louis | 7.5 | 100 | 7.35 | | 7.5 | 115 | 7.20 | | 7 | -120 | 7.05 |
| Tampa Bay | 8 | -130 | 8.15 | | 8 | -105 | 7.90 | | 8.5 | -115 | 8.50 |
| Tennessee | 6.5 | -135 | 6.70 | | 7 | 120 | 6.65 | | 6.5 | -120 | 6.55 |
| Washington | 6 | -130 | 6.15 | | 6 | -105 | 5.90 | | 6.5 | 105 | 6.30 |
Next I took the converted prices to find where the biggest discrepancies are between these books. That table is below with the Top 10 discrepancies highlighted.
| SB vs Bmaker | SB vs BOL | Bmaker vs. BOL | |
| Arizona | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| Atlanta | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| Baltimore | 0.10 | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| Buffalo | 0.10 | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| Carolina | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Chicago | 0.20 | 0.65 | 0.85 |
| Cincinnati | 0.15 | 0.80 | 0.65 |
| Cleveland | 0.29 | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| Dallas | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| Denver | 0.10 | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| Detroit | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Green Bay | 0.05 | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| Houston | 0.25 | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| Indianapolis | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| Jacksonville | 0.25 | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| Kansas City | 0.25 | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| Miami | 0.25 | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| Minnesota | 0.05 | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| New England | 0.10 | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| New Orleans | 0.24 | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| New York G | 0.05 | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| New York J | 0.20 | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| Oakland | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| Philadelphia | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Pittsburgh | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| San Diego | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| San Francisco | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Seattle | 0.45 | 1.15 | 0.70 |
| St. Louis | 0.15 | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.25 | 0.35 | 0.60 |
| Tennessee | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| Washington | 0.25 | 0.15 | 0.40 |
What does this have to do with outs? Outs are where you can get down a bet. Spreads, or in this case season win/loss totals, are no more than a price. Do you shop around online for purchases for the best deal on regular items your buying? In most cases you probably do. That should be no different than how you place your bets. Having more outs allows you to shop at more places for better prices.
There are two main advantages to line shopping, first by getting better prices. Assuming you thought the Baltimore over was a good bet this year, wouldn’t you rather bet them over 10.5 wins at Bmaker and lay 5 cents (-105) of vig, than bet them over 11 wins and lay 15 cents (-115) of vig at BOL?
Secondly, when the prices are quite different across books it gives us the ability to arbitrage prices through a “middle bet”. Some example of this are: Cincinnati, Seattle and Chicago. We’ll start with Cincinnati. If you were to bet Cincinnati at under 6.5 -120 at BOL and also bet Cincinnati over 5.5 wins -130 at SB you’re giving yourself a middle of 6 wins. You’re essentially in a worst case scenario risking 30 cents (or -030) that both of your bets win to receive $2 (+200). You get +666 that Cincinnati wins 6 games, or saying you think there is a better than 13.05% chance they land on 6 wins. In Chicago’s case you would do a similar exercise betting under 9.5 -120 at BOL, and over 8.5 -115 at SB. Here you are risking 20 cents to win $2, getting +1000 odds that the Bears win 9 games, saying you think there’s a better than 10% chance they win exactly 9 games.
The best opportunity in this is with Seattle, due to added value from an extra opportunity to push the bet. . By betting the under 7 -130 at BOL and the over 5.5 -135 at SB we’re risking 35 cents to win $2 or +571 odds for the Seahawks to win 6 games. Now we need to combine these two outcomes to see what odds we’re being given that Seattle wins 6 OR 7 games. +571 odds convert to 14.9% and +286 odds convert to 25.91%. By adding these two numbers we’re putting ourselves in a situation that says the chances of Seattle winning 6 OR 7 games is 40.81% or +145. The overlay from the price offered and what the true price should be is massive!
Although I’ve shown these three scenarios provide arbitrage opportunity it is important to quantify what that opportunity is. By knowing the exact odds on what it is we’re betting we can make better decisions. For example we would have to think there’s a better than 13.05% chance Cincinnati wins EXACTLY 6 games, better than 10% chance Chicago wins EXACTLY 9 games, and a better than 40.81% chance Seattle wins 6 OR 7 games. Comparing these percentages to some of last year’s there is some value. 7 of 32 teams were within one game of their win/loss total and 5 finished within a ½ game of their total. This equates to 21.88% and 15.62%, respectively. Obviously, you may want to incorporate your own personal handicapping of each team into your analysis as well. (For instance, I happen to think that Cincinnati is a train-wreck, and would consider playing under 5.5 wins. Therefore I’ll likely take the under 6.5 price and be happy as I feel it provides more value at -120 than EXACTLY 6 at +666 does.)
I hope the previous illustrations show the importance of having multiple outs. If you skip over the various arbitrage scenarios, and focus only on finding the best numbers you will at least give yourself an advantage and increase profitability by playing better numbers over a month, a season, a year.
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