Looking back at this past weekend, we could not have been more wrong. We had a theory about how the Lockout would effect the first few weeks of the season and it would appear we're a bit off. Overs cashed at a high rate (12-3-1) as clearly defenses were not ahead of the offenses like we expected. We went 2-7 and lost 6.2 units for a 66% loss. This is one of only seventeen weeks so we're not going to over react and try to dig it all out in one day or week. In all likelihood we maybe even more selective until we get a better handle on where this season is going. The only positive was we beat the closing line on a consistent basis, getting "the best" part of the side we wanted. This didn't help us out, but over the long haul beating the closing number is going to always be a key to successfully beating the market. Where we went wrong this week:
Atlanta -1.5: Turnovers really hurt the Falcons in the game. They turned it over three times to Chicago's one. They had much more success than Chicago on the ground and had they not turned the ball over so much and been able to rely more on the running game we might have had a different result. The Falcons also struggled to defend the pass more than we thought. It will be interesting to see where both these teams go moving forward.
Cleveland / Cincinnati under 37: We can attribute a loss here to many a bone-headed play by the Browns. They quickly went down 13 points due to some poor special teams and punting. Cincinnati started three of their first four drives barely outside of FG range starting at the Cleveland 41, 41 and 38 yard lines. Neither team looked very crisp on offense, averaging less than 6 yards per pass attempt and under 4.5 per rush. Cincincinnati's averages were inflated by two big plays at the end of the game when the Browns fell asleep at the wheel. We already indicated we're on the Browns in Week 2 at Indy as the elimination of just a few mental mistakes and Cincinnati likely wouldn't have scored 17 points let alone 27 points.
New York Giants -3: As we indicated, we grabbed this line before the rash of injuries to the Giants thinking we were ahead of the market. We probably should have bought back on the Redskins and just taken a loss on the vigorish. Clearly, the Giants depleted defense could not stay with the Redskins.
Carolina / Arizona under 37: We'll have to look at these teams moving forward more for their defenses than their offenses. The amount of yardage given up by both teams is something we'll have to look at and remember moving forward. These will likely be two "stay away" teams until we get a better handle on just how good their offenses are.
Minnesota +9: Finally, a winner. Frankly, you could argue we were a little right and a little lucky. Minnesota looked like crap for most of the game and without a special teams touchdown from Percy Harvin we wouldn't have covered. Not exactly benefiting from a late backdoor cover, but Minnesota certainly wasn't impressive and we were a little off on Donovan McNabb being better than some expected. Fortunately, we were correct with San Diego coming out flat and being slightly overvalued.
Oakland / Denver under 40.5 and Denver -2: We overrated Denver, and their defense. The Broncos had many missed tackles in the run game. They had no running game to speak of themselves and their offense was manhandled much of the game. Thankfully, (or not so thankfully) Oakland committed enough boneheaded penalties to keep Denver in the game. A relaxed defense and a special teams touchdown were the only reason Denver scored two touchdowns. Oakland's 15 penalties for 131 yards were just enough of a tease to keep Denver close and allow them to score enough to go over the total. Not a good result for us.
Pittsburgh / Cleveland Teaser: We already covered Cleveland's issues. Pittsburgh had 7 turnovers. That will always do you in. Hopefully, Big Ben realizes Ed Reed wears purple by now. It will be interesting to see what Pittsburgh does going forward. Likely, another "stay away" team until we see if this defense is as they showed.
Tennessee +3: We were able to win this 1/2 unit play by beating the closing number and firing quickly after the David Garrard news. The TN offense appeared to be more stifled than we thought and Luke McCown did not look as bad as we thought. Luckily, we got the best of the number here.
We'll be looking to improve in Week 2 and are considering the following:
Cleveland -1 (already taken)
Dallas -3
Tampa Bay +3
Buffalo -3.5
Cincinnati +5.5
Cincinnati / Denver under 40 (we'll wait till Sunday if we move on this as I think this total could get bet up)
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