Week 2 - CFB Version

Louisiana State’s defense is for real.  Mississippi St. did everything they could, but it was almost impossible to move the ball on that defense.  We still buy the theory on Thursday nights, but can’t hit them all, on to the rest of our action.

1★ Positions:

Boise St. -20:  Feel free to call us square here, but we really like Boise St.  Some people have postulated that Toledo could keep it close after a nice performance at Ohio St. where they almost won the game.  While we think Toledo is a solid MAC school and bowl team, the Broncos are a step-up from the depleted Buckeyes.  We think they’re may be a bit of a letdown factor with Toledo almost taking out their in state “Big Brother.”  The Rockets knew they were coming home for a second big game, but we think t hey may have trouble getting up for the Broncos after likely dumping everything they had into the Buckeye game.  On the Bronco side of the ledger, Kellen Moore is not Joe Bauserman.  Bauserman missed open receivers left and right, and Kellen Moor is one of the most accurate quarterbacks in college football.  Combine that with the Bronco’s underrated defense and their knack for running up the score and we see value with the Broncos.

Miami -2.5:  Speaking of Mr. Bauserman, he’s not very good.  It appeared sometimes he thought receivers’ hands were attached to their ankles.  There’s been a lot of talk on if/when Braxton Miller should play against Miami.  Although he may get in, we don’t really trust him.  A freshman on the road, at night is not a situation we want to be in, even if playing in Miami isn’t like playing at Camp Randall or The Big House.  We continue to think the Buckeye’s will struggle offensively until Dan “Boom” Herron, Devier Posey and offensive lineman Mike Adams return.  There’s just too much pressure being put on the quarterbacks of the Buckeyes to carry the team, which we think they can’t handle.  The main reason or excuse we’re hearing around Ohio that the Buckeyes can go into Miami and take one is Jacory Harris and his turnovers.  Although he has, in the past been a turnover machine, turnovers are not something we’re going to bank on when handicapping. 

We also see value in a correlated parlay of Miami and the under based on Ohio St.’s offense struggling.  We see the total at 46, but will wait until game time. A night ESPN game will probably allow public bettors to push the total up.  If we can get Miami at -3 or less and the total at 47 (or maybe even 48) we’ll be playing the correlated parlay for a ½ unit.  We’ll tweet this out game day if the opportunity presents itself.

BYU/Utah under 46: You actually can get this at 46.5, now.  If it rises to 47.5 or 48 we’ll be adding another unit to this play.  BYU’s defense has really controlled the game in their first two matchups and we don’t see why this wouldn’t continue.  They Cougar defense is allowing only 3.2 yards per rush and 5.6 yards per pass attempt.  These numbers aren’t largely skewed by beating up on cupcakes.  Neither Ole Miss or Texas are BCS teams, but they’re not a Sun Belt for FCS school either.  BYU’s offense has been, well how could we put this, okay.  They’ve struggled mightily to run the ball and Jake Heaps hasn’t been as stellar as some would hope with 2 TDs and 3 INTs.  Utah meanwhile has done decent running the ball, but struggled in the passing game.  They’re having a bit of trouble familiarizing themselves with Norm Chow’s offense.  They’re averaging less than 5 yards per attempt and those stats include the game against Montana St.  We really see this as a low scoring game.  It’s a big rivalry and both teams may take some time to feel each other out.  We would be surprised if more than one team got into the 20s.

Washington +17: Nebraska has been less than impressive so far this year.  Taylor Martinez can be flashy, but he’s struggled here and there.  Martinez has accounted for almost 80% of the Husker offense.  Their young offensive line has struggled at times leading to inconsistencies.  Nebraska has relied heavily on the big play, leading to the afore mentioned inconsistency when they can’t produce them.  Washington’s new quarterback, Keith Price has acquitted himself well so far with 7TDs and only 1 interception.  Washington has proved in the past they can run the ball against the Blackshirts with Chris Polk.  Polk ran for 177 yards in the bowl game against Nebraska last year, and is averaging over 100 yards in their first two games.  Meanwhile, the vaunted Blackshirts of Nebraska are bordering on possibly being overrated after surrendering over 400 yards and 29 points to Fresno St. at home.  Seventeen points just seems too high here.  If Washington can contain Martinez and move the ball themselves they should have no problem staying within two touchdowns of the Huskers. This game has the potential with Nebraska being a big public team to go to 17.5, however this was at 16.5 at one point this week so we’ll take Washington at 17, just in case it came back to 16.5.

These next three games are positions we’re likely to take, however we feel the number could go up before kickoff, so we’re waiting.  We’ll tweet out on Saturday if we officially move on them, but we expect Navy to possibly go to 17 or higher, Tennessee to go back to 10 and Arizona to go back to 10.

Navy +16.5 (will confirm via Twitter at hopefully 17 or higher): South Carolina’s offense has been less than impressive.  Stephen Garcia is completing less than 50% of his passes and has as many TDs as interceptions.  They’ve relied heavily on turnovers to capitalize in their last two games.  Navy is one of the most disciplined teams in the country and are unlikely to turn it over often.  Part of this is their non-traditional offense where they run the ball as much if not more than any other team in the nation.  Additionally, this could allow them to keep the ball away from South Carolina.  Navy is heading into a major step-up in completion, but taking the points here in a game where Navy can grind the ball and play keep away makes sense to us.  This feels more like a two touchdown game rather than a seventeen point game.

Tennessee +9.5 (will confirm via Twitter at hopefully 10 or higher): Tyler Bray has looked good in the Vols first two games including against Cincinnati, who has fallen off over the last two years, but certainly not on the same level of Florida’s first two opponents, UAB and Florida Atlantic.  We felt Florida was a bit overrated coming into this year and think this their first real challenge, and is the right place to exploit it.

Arizona +9.5 (will confirm via Twitter at hopefully 10 or higher): After getting blown out last Thursday Arizona is likely one of the least liked teams in the Sports Market.  They’re currently getting ready to play one of the more public teams in the market in Stanford.  Most people are very high on Stanford because of Andrew Luck, but he does not have the same team he had around him last year.  They’ve yet to really play anyone and have little at receiver and on their offensive line.  Mike Stoops is 10-1 against the spread at home against ranked teams, so he knows how to get his teams ready to play.  This is the least confident of the three positions we think will move, so we won’t play it unless it does move.  The only way we play this at 9 or 9.5 is if Juron Criner is confirmed to be playing.