Week 3 - CFB Version and Model Debut

This week we debut our long awaited model.  Ok, maybe not that long awaited.  You’re probably longingly awaiting our NFL Model since so far our own handicapping hasn’t gone so well with the guys who get paid to play.  Either way, we’ll be upgrading our one-unit plays, as we are more confident in our model.

For those of you who listen to Chad Millman’s “Beyond The Bets” podcast (and for those of you who don’t, you should), you may have heard him comment on some “public bettors” in this week’s podcast.  He said, "There are starting to be two kinds of public bettors now. There are the public bettors who are a little more aggressive, and if they lived in Vegas and be doing this they'd be called wise guys, but they're lawyers or doctors or finance guys. They go to websites and are starting to make decisions based on the trends they're seeing and they're own algorithms for all we know. These are 10% of bettors, these middle ground, very tapped-in bettors, who don't live in Las Vegas, but take advantage of the information that’s out there.“  We like to think we fit into this category, being a finance professional and using algorithms. 

This is the basis of our model and our betting approach: In its simplest form, our model takes a team’s last three games, normalizes their performance for which teams they played vs. who they’re going to play utilizing various formulas and projects a score.  We’ve done this for every college football game since 2007, giving us enough data to find out which systems are profitable and which aren’t.  We’ve found the following criteria to be worthy of a 2 ★ or 2 unit play.  

1. Each individual year covers the spread at over 55% for all years observed (so you don’t play something that was 80% one year and 30% the next – we like consistency and predictability).
2. There have been at least 100 observations, so the percentages are statistically significant.

Now, you may be asking how we came upon these models or who built them, or did we hire a math genius who’s going to create the next Facebook, but built this instead?  The answer is none of the above.  This is what happens when you have finance professionals with too much time and excel skills on their hands who love sports.

Our model has been more successful based on the back testing with away teams, rather than home teams in terms of spreads.  These are the away teams at 2 ★we are taking this weekend. We may add a few more based on where they line moves and will tweet those Saturday via twitter @TheSportsMarket  

UAB +14 @ E. Carolina – 2 algorithms liked this position

Fresno St. -2.5 @ Idaho – 2 algorithms liked this position

LA-Lafayette +17 @ Florida International

Our model has been successful in predicting both overs and unders.  Our 2 ★ total positions we are taking this weekend.  Again we may add a few more positions depending on how lines move.

UCLA / Oregon St. under 50 – 2 algorithms liked this position

Arizona St. / Southern California under 54  – 2 algorithms liked this position

Ohio St. / Colorado under 45

Georgia / Ole Miss under 54

LA Tech / Miss St. under 59

Syracuse / Toledo under 54

South Carolina / Vanderbilt under 52

Temple / Maryland under 52.5

LA – Monroe / Iowa under 50.5

Rice / Baylor under 67

California / Washington over 58.5

Now our standard handicapping positions that are 1 ★:

BYU -2.5  We think BYU is very undervalued after a lackluster performance against rival Utah.  The score was deceptive with the Utes picking up over 30 points off of turnovers.  UCF really hasn’t played anyone, yet, and sneaked by FIU last week.  This is really a good spot for BYU to bounce back, at home in a nationally televised game.

Notre Dame -7 We didn’t get it tweeted out that we got this at 6.5 today, so we’ll officially list this at -7.  At 6.5 it was a 2 ★ play for us, but officially we’re going to try to keep the numbers here at where you can get them.  If it gets to 6.5, assume we added another unit because we did.  We like the Irish in this spot on the road, as their offense finally proved what it can do when it’s not shooting itself in the foot.   Pittsburgh barely snuck by Maine and blew a big lead against Iowa last week.  Their pass defense has been suspect all year, giving a great matchup for ND.

Eastern Michigan / Penn St. under 45  Both these offenses were born to struggle.  Penn St. is favored by 28.5 points in this game and one makes you think if Penn St. can even score 28 points.  Eastern Michigan was able to move the ball against Michigan last week, but we just don’t foresee them being able to do it against a Penn St. defense that allowed 10 to a pretty good Temple team and 27 to a very good Alabama team that capitalized on a bunch of turnovers.  First to 21 here is likely the victor.

Texas A&M / Oklahoma St. under 70 – We see Texas A&M utilizing their good running game to try and play keep away with Oklahoma St.  At home and favored we would think they can and will control their game.  Combine this with their great defense and we think this is almost a TD too high.

There’s one game we’re currently waiting on and that’s Colorado +16.5 @ Ohio St.   We have one more week to fade the Buckeyes before the return of Posey, Herron and Adams.  We just don’t think the oddsmakers have adjusted low enough on the Buckeyes.  Braxton Miller won’t make that much of a difference.  We’re waiting to see if this line hits 17, because it dropping to anything but 14.5 shouldn’t make that much of a difference.