Yesterday was one of the worst betting days in our career and probably the worst in CFB. We want to apologize to anyone we led astray and will be looking deeper into our models to see if there's something we're missing. We'll just grind on further and work harder this week. We didn't make any "dumb" or "stupid" mistakes by chasing, so we still believe we were using the right approach. We caught a few bad beats, and you'll have that, so we're hopefully chalking up yesterday to some rough variance.
If you've done this for any extended period of time, you know days like yesterday happen. This week in the blog we'll cover variance and money management. Proper use of the latter allows you to survive days like yesterday.
Today we grind on to the NFL and are on the following:
2 ★
Cincinnati -1 (3 algorithms like this)
AZ +3
SF -2.5 (2 algorithms like this)
Denver +4
GB -5.5
NYJ +7.5
TN +3
KC +1
NO -6.5
NO/Carolina under 51
MN/AZ under 45
Good luck today and let's bounce back.
If you've done this for any extended period of time, you know days like yesterday happen. This week in the blog we'll cover variance and money management. Proper use of the latter allows you to survive days like yesterday.
Today we grind on to the NFL and are on the following:
2 ★
Cincinnati -1 (3 algorithms like this)
AZ +3
SF -2.5 (2 algorithms like this)
Denver +4
GB -5.5
NYJ +7.5
TN +3
KC +1
NO -6.5
NO/Carolina under 51
MN/AZ under 45
Good luck today and let's bounce back.
Cant remember if I asked you guys before if your models could catch teams that are showing a sudden trend reversal or not, just curious.
ReplyDeleteAlso wonder your take on what seems to me a trend for 'top' teams to beat the spread and perhaps the total in CFB, no research done on my part.
Could there be at the end of the year multiple undefeateds that make the case for the superconferences and eventual playoff? Just seems to me that everyone in the NCAA hates the BCS now and that would be a great argument to consolidate all these conferences once and for all and get a playoff system. Does anyone else get this feeling or have I enjoyed too many libations again?
Your approach looks much like mine. I treat the lines as though all known information is reflected in the odds/price. Like Technical Analysis of financial markets. I got hurt with Den +4 last week, too. This week, I'm liking Minnesota and Miami..
ReplyDeleteGood luck to you in Week 6!
-Tanya