Tonight we have our first shot at actually cashing something our analysis has led us to play. Fairfield plays Loyola MD as 2.5 point favorite and -140 on the ML to represent the MAAC in the NCAA Tournament. We have 3 units of which to risk or hold on to. We can risk all 3 and win 2.2 units giving us 5.2 units with a win or we can take one off the table, risk 2 units to win 1.4. This would essentially give us a risk less bet, by taking our original 1 unit off the table. These payouts are slightly below the +500 offered before the tournament because we did not bet Fairfield in their first matchup as a heavy favorite. We're going to choose to take our original one unit off the table and wager 2 units on Fairfield at -140. This would net us a 3.2 unit profit with a win and no loss either way.
Below we have the same analysis we've been running for the A10, Big East, Big 12, CUSA, MAC, & MEAC. Based on our analysis in the A10 there's a little bit of value on St. Louis (we'll be passing). In the Big East there's also a very minuscule amount of value on Syracuse. Shifting to the middle of the country in the Big 12 Kansas presents some nice value. Because they will be a favorite in every game, we'll just go ahead and play the future at KS +105 to win the Big 12. There really isn't any value in CUSA with Memphis as such a dominant force, which is the polar opposite of the MAC.
The MAC is about as wide open as conference can be, there is value appearing from all over the place. Toledo, Kent St., Bowling Green and Miami OH all show value based on the current odds. Toledo and Miami OH actually play each other tonight, so we'll likely look to play the winner of this matchup in the next game on the ML. In addition we like Bowling Green, but its not worth risking a lot for a small payoff to start the tournament as such a heavy favorite. We'll look to play them in the next round. Remember, even with these long shots its not necessarily about trying to hit a 200:1 or 125:1 shot, but being able to lock in profit at a later date or take some money off the table and have a "riskless" bet moving forward.
Back east in the MEAC both Savannah St. and NC Central are showing value. NC Central is showing the most value based on the below and we'll be playing them when this tournament kicks off tomorrow.
2★
Fairfield -140
1★
Kansas +105 to win Big 12 Tournament
Below we have the same analysis we've been running for the A10, Big East, Big 12, CUSA, MAC, & MEAC. Based on our analysis in the A10 there's a little bit of value on St. Louis (we'll be passing). In the Big East there's also a very minuscule amount of value on Syracuse. Shifting to the middle of the country in the Big 12 Kansas presents some nice value. Because they will be a favorite in every game, we'll just go ahead and play the future at KS +105 to win the Big 12. There really isn't any value in CUSA with Memphis as such a dominant force, which is the polar opposite of the MAC.
The MAC is about as wide open as conference can be, there is value appearing from all over the place. Toledo, Kent St., Bowling Green and Miami OH all show value based on the current odds. Toledo and Miami OH actually play each other tonight, so we'll likely look to play the winner of this matchup in the next game on the ML. In addition we like Bowling Green, but its not worth risking a lot for a small payoff to start the tournament as such a heavy favorite. We'll look to play them in the next round. Remember, even with these long shots its not necessarily about trying to hit a 200:1 or 125:1 shot, but being able to lock in profit at a later date or take some money off the table and have a "riskless" bet moving forward.
Back east in the MEAC both Savannah St. and NC Central are showing value. NC Central is showing the most value based on the below and we'll be playing them when this tournament kicks off tomorrow.
2★
Fairfield -140
1★
Kansas +105 to win Big 12 Tournament
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