5/30 MLB

The overnights for 5/30.

CHW +133 ITGTeam
STL +110 ITGTeam
DET +135
HOU +140
NYY +110 ITGTeam

5/29 MLB

Overnights for 5/29, all ITGTeam plays.

BAL +130
SEA +180
AZ +115

Week 7 Recap

We came back to earth a bit after an outstanding Week 6.  For the week we were 17-19 and essentially broke almost dead even.  The team totals we've been playing (albeit at a lower unit) helped us out.  For the year we're now 87-100 up 25.2u for an 8.01% return.

We'll likely be dialing things back at some point this week.  We've found lines to tighten up and be more difficult in the summer months.  You'll probably see us playing less in both number of plays and in unit size.  We'll be sure to specify precisely when we do this.

5/28 MLB

We'll have our weekly recap tomorrow (5/27).  We had a rough end of this week, but are hoping this bounces us back.  A bit of a large card, and we also have a lean to Cincy, SF TT, CHC TT and possibly Houston.

WA +105
STL +105
DET +110
CHW +105
BAL +130
SEA +190
LAD+105

5/26 MLB

4-4 yesterday and ended up sneaking out a small profit.  Here's what we have on a gorgeous Memorial Day Weekend.  We'll be getting back to posting the overnight lines today or tomorrow.  Got a bit busy with the holiday, but look for that to return.

TOR +170 (ITGTeam)
SF +110 (ITGTeam)
TB +110 (ITGTeam)
HOU +110

5/25 MLB

Rough stretch that past few days going 0-4, but that was inevitable after the hot streak we're on.  Here's what we have tonight.


TB +150 (ITG)
WA +140 (ITG)
TOR +120 (ITG)
CLE +110
SEA +115

1 Unit 
SD  TT u3.5 -110
SF TT u3 +100
CH TT u3.5 -115

5/23 MLB

Quite a large card for us tomorrow.  To help with some confusions we'll start designating our #ITGTeam plays here as well so you don't get confused.  Also, everything we play is currently two units unless otherwise designated so.  

When we say we're "leaning" on playing something, it means just that.  We're "leaning" on playing it at the price as of this blogs publishing.  We think one of two things: Either A) We think we'll get a  better price later, or B) It may move to a dog price and therefore fit in our parameters.  We try and give you a heads up so you can keep an eye out on Twitter to see if we make it official, or if its something you were thinking about you know its close for us.

The list for 5/23:

BAL +105

TOR +105 (ITGTeam)

SF +120

SEA +140

KC +185 (ITGTeam)

CLE +110

CIN +105

LAD +100 (ITGTeam)

Week 6 Recap and 5/22 MLB

Our best week of the season by far.  For the week we went 18-12 playing all moneyline dogs and picked up 22.5 units.  For the year we're now 70-81 and up 25 units.

If you'd like to see what our "best" plays are we narrow them down just a bit more and submit them as part of the "ITG Team".  These are independently tracked and verified by @ITGLife.  You can read more about his endeavor to create a team of handicappers at http://itglife.com/.  Our success rates on the "ITG Team" plays can be found there.  If you search #ITGTeam on Twitter, you'll see which positions get that designation from us each night along with the plays the rest of the team has selected.

As always these are what we are grabbing over night for 5/22:

BAL +115
TOR +125
SF +105
LAD +135

We also have leans to Atlanta, St. Louis RL (again for 1 unit), and SD TT under (same).

5/21 MLB

Ended up a very solid week 2-1 on this Sunday with one pending, so we're guaranteed a profitable day and week.  We'll recap the whole week with the profit/loss, return % and where we stand year to date tomorrow (5/21).  We're grabbing these early and may have a few more to add depending on where prices shake out.

BAL +105
TOR +140

5/20 MLB

A solid day yesterday.  The one's we added on Twitter held us a back a bit, but a profitable day, nonetheless.  Here's what we have for the gorgeous Sunday.

CIN +150
HOU +150
SEA +135
LAD +115

Good luck!

5/19 MLB

3-0 last night (5/17).  We haven't had a first pitch yet, but again we're going to continue to try and grab early lines.  This is what we're on for tomorrow, Saturday, May 19th.

CIN +145

HOU +165

CHW +130

We'll also be looking at adding the following at the right prices, much like we've added Miami tonight, NYM, Oakland, a team at the Trop, and Baltimore.

5/18 MLB

2-1 on 5/16 and 2-1 so far tonight, 5/17.  Only two for tomorrow so far, but depending on how things move we may have more at The Jake, Kauffman Stadium, Dodger Stadium and AT&T Park.

CIN +125
HOU +145

5/17 MLB

Tuesday was rough, and we're hoping for a split tonight here as we're 1-1 with two pending.  We have 4 games for tomorrow that are possible, so be sure to check Twitter, or another post in the morning, as we're likely to add to these for Thursday.

OAK +175
BOS +120
HOU +135
LAD +115

5/16 MLB

Lost our afternoon action, but have two more pending.  We've found grabbing things earlier has given us more value, so we're going to attempt to get down on things the night before as much as possible moving forward.  Here's what we have for tomorrow, along with a few we'll be checking back on in the AM.

TOR +115
BOS +125
BAL +120
CHW +120

The others that may happen, depending on what the price does are: Houston, St. Louis and Arizona.

May 15th MLB

2-1 last night, another solid day.  Only three today, including some late afternoon action for east coasters and pure afternoon delight for west coasters.

SEA +160
OAK +150
CIN +105

Week 5 Recap and MLB 5/14

We had a really nice week going until last night.  Two blown saves really hurt us, but it happens from time to time.  For the week we were 19-24 and lost 0.6 units.  For the year we're now 52-69, up 2.5 units for a 1.32% return.  We look to start out this week well by playing the following:

TB +130
SEA +160
CIN +125

Depending on what price we can get we may end up adding CHW and BAL.

May 13th MLB

AMLBANOTHER real nice day yesterday. Let's hope it continues and Happy Mothers Day. SEA +180 BAL +105 CLE +115 HOU +110 ATL +135 COL +125 LAA +120 NYM +135

May 12th MLB

Another 3-3 night, but we were on the positive side. Today's card s a bit bigger than usual for us, but it's what we got. LAA +130 SEA +175 BAL +120 CLE +120 OAK +125 HOU +125 WA +125 ATL +115 COL +120

May 11th MLB

2-2 yesterday.  We'll take that all year long.  Here's what we have for today:

BAL +115
HOU +120
SEA +125
CLE +110
AZ +110
COL +160

5/10 MLB

A bit of a bounce back to profitability last night after a few tough days.  Today, we have the following including carrying over the Baltimore game that was rained out yesterday.

GM 1 BAL +115
GM 2 BAL +110
TB +135
CLE +140

Betting MLB 60/60/42 and May 9th MLB

In previous posts, we’ve described various models and algorithms we use to handicap football and basketball.  In baseball we don’t use models.  We start with the basic premise that the worst team is going to win 60 games and the best team is going to lose 60 games, it’s the other 42 games that determines its season.  Therefore we use a criterion to find when the underdogs are going to win their 60 games and the favorite is going to lose their 60 games at the right price.

Before we get into discussing the specifics around the criterion one MUST understand prices when betting a money line sport.   Obviously, each money line converts to a different win percentage to be profitable.  For example a bet at +145 has to win at a much lower percentage to be profitable than +105.  An easy way to illustrate why price is important is to maybe compare a 5 cent difference on each bet (say +145 vs. +140) when played in 600 games over a baseball season.  If you hit at 50% you would earn an extra +1500 (300 wins x 5 cents).  At $100 a game, that would be an extra $1,500 in your pocket, and an extra 2.5% return on your bets.  In a business where a 10% return is considered outstanding (and maybe even unsustainable) getting a few extra cents each day can make an enormous difference.  If you don’t understand this it won’t matter what criteria or approach you use, it will be extremely difficult to make a profit betting on baseball. 

The following is the specific measures we use in our criteria and how we use them.  Our back testing has shown that each of these increases profitability.   We’ve described what basic concept we use and some details around it. 

Underdogs:  We only play underdogs.  If you’re a favorite, you’re not on our card.  To start most people don’t like playing underdogs.  They don’t win as much.  They are not as good as their opponent, and people simply don’t understand the pricing of underdogs.  This leads to mispriced underdogs across the board.  There has been a multitude of articles and even an academic study showing that betting on underdogs can be profitable.

Run Differential: After compiling the list of all the days’ underdogs, the next thing you want to do is throw out the super shitty teams.  Even though underdogs are profitable, not all are.  This is what we use to screen out betting on teams that are going to lose more than their fair share (maybe even more that they don’t win 60).  Run differential (“run dif”) is the amount of runs scored – runs allowed.   Run dif is widely considered to be a good predictor of a teams quality.  The way we screen using run differential is we throw out any team who has a negative run differential that is a great than a certain percentage of their games played.  For example if you wanted to use 60% as the screen and a team has played 30 games, if their run differential is worse than -18 (30 x .60) than you would throw them out.

Above Average Pitchers:  Pitching is a huge determinant in both price and outcome.  We want to eliminate teams playing above average pitchers.  There’s a multitude of stats and advanced stats you can use.  In the past we’ve used Jeff Sagarin’s power rankings.  You can use ERA, FIP (fielding independent pitching) or whatever you want.  You can throw out teams playing the best 15, 20 or 25 pitchers in MLB or a giving league based on any of the measures above.  The idea is to determine some sort of ranking that eliminates teams facing above average pitchers. 

We happen to like using FIP as a measure and eliminate top pitchers from the previous month.   Why FIP and the previous month?  For one FIP is a better measure than ERA and for 2 you can search top pitchers by month from previous years at www.fangraphs .com.   This aided with back testing and knowing when we actually go to bet we can use the previous months ranking.  We had used Sagarin’s rankings in the past, but you can only back test against previous year’s FINAL standings.  This can be difficult when you’re in the current year  because you don’t know if that pitcher your betting will be in the top 15, 20, 25, etc. that year.

Pricing: The last metric is around pricing.  We did some back testing to see if there was a certain minimum and maximum price where the rest of the criteria started to see less of a return.  From 2009-2011 playing underdogs greater than +180 (i.e. +190) led to less of a return.  Playing teams at less than +110 made a difference in some years, but not in others so we go ahead and play any dog less than +180.

Once you’ve written down all the underdogs, scratched off the crappy teams and eliminated any team playing an ace pitcher, you’re left with who we usually bet on.  Who is that you may ask?  Well it often ends up being mediocre or better teams, against mediocre or worse pitchers at prices where you may not even need to hit 50% to turn a profit.  What you’ve also probably ended up with is a team that is likely playing in one of its 60 games it should win, 60 games it opponent should lose, or even if its in one of the 42 games that’s 50/50 you’re still getting +$$$.  Leave thoughts or questions in the comments or on Twitter.  What other criteria makes sense to you?

MLB for May 9th


COL +115
OAK +125
TB +125
BAL +120
SEA +115
SF +120

May 8th MLB and 1,500 Followers Contest

We promised a contest and here it is.  For Tuesday May 8th retweet us whatever tweet got you here and your best 3 bets for Tuesday May 8th.  Whoever nets the most (assuming each bet is $100) will win a 3 team $50 parlay where you get the winnings if it cashes.  If for some reason there's a tie whoever tweeted first will win.

For Tuesday here's what we have:

BAL +125
CHW +130
TB +105
ATL +105
CIN +125

Week 4 Recap and May 7th MLB

A tough 1-4 day to end the week, but overall it was a quite successful one.  For the week we went 14-9 and picked up 13.1 units.  We has a bit of a rough patch in Week 2, but 2 weeks later and we've grinded back to the positive side of the ledger.  For the year we're now 33-45, up 3.1 units for a 3.00% return.

A quite extensive card for us on Monday, but it fits in our parameters.  Here's what we have, and may add Colorado later in the day.  Please note all our wagers are based on the listed pitcher for the OPPOSING team and if he's a scratch so is our position.  Usually these are easy to find and are uncommon to change, but with the doubleheader tomorrow in CLE (and a greater likelihood for a scratch) we've listed the two pitchers to be clear.  Tomorrow or Wed. we'll be going through the "parameters" in how we handicap MLB.

GM 1 CHW +105 (McCallister)
GM 2 CHW +130 (Tomlin)
BAL +140
CIN +115
AZ +110
SF +130
SEA +130

May 6th MLB

Our 5th straight winning day yesterday, with the loss coming in extras.  Have a bit of large card for us today with 4 positions and possibly a 5th on the LAD.

CHW +160
BAL +140
TOR +125
HOU +130

Cinco De Mayo MLB

Another nice night going 2-0.  We have three more for sure and may add the Red Legs later if the right price presents itself.  Enjoy Cinco De Mayo, the fight and the Derby today.

BAL +105
CHW +120
CLE +135

May 4th MLB

I nice 2-0 yesterday for us with our first 2 unit positions.  We have two more today, and may add Colorado and/or the White Sox.

CLE +135
BAL +145

Thursday May 3rd MLB

Well in the last week it appears we're finally pulling ourselves out and variance has corrected itself.  A very solid 2-1 night last night.  After looking back at all of our testing it appears our most consistent and productive months are April, May and September.  This actually makes sense based on our approach (full details on that early next week).  So with that being said all of our positions will be 2 units through the end of May.  We might be taking off June-August, but thats yet to be decided.

Therefore today our positions at 2 units are as follows:

PHI +110
CLE +110

Wednesday May 2nd MLB

A nice clean sweep last night.  Today we have three positions, including one for the afternoon crowd.  We may begin upping our positions to two units here shortly as it appears the tide has turned, but for now we'll still only using one unit.

TX +115
BAL +165
CLE +120

May 1st MLB

2-3 yesterday with a tough loss on Seattle.  Here's what we've got for today:

BAL +175
TOR +130
LAD +100