Betting MLB 60/60/42 and May 9th MLB

In previous posts, we’ve described various models and algorithms we use to handicap football and basketball.  In baseball we don’t use models.  We start with the basic premise that the worst team is going to win 60 games and the best team is going to lose 60 games, it’s the other 42 games that determines its season.  Therefore we use a criterion to find when the underdogs are going to win their 60 games and the favorite is going to lose their 60 games at the right price.

Before we get into discussing the specifics around the criterion one MUST understand prices when betting a money line sport.   Obviously, each money line converts to a different win percentage to be profitable.  For example a bet at +145 has to win at a much lower percentage to be profitable than +105.  An easy way to illustrate why price is important is to maybe compare a 5 cent difference on each bet (say +145 vs. +140) when played in 600 games over a baseball season.  If you hit at 50% you would earn an extra +1500 (300 wins x 5 cents).  At $100 a game, that would be an extra $1,500 in your pocket, and an extra 2.5% return on your bets.  In a business where a 10% return is considered outstanding (and maybe even unsustainable) getting a few extra cents each day can make an enormous difference.  If you don’t understand this it won’t matter what criteria or approach you use, it will be extremely difficult to make a profit betting on baseball. 

The following is the specific measures we use in our criteria and how we use them.  Our back testing has shown that each of these increases profitability.   We’ve described what basic concept we use and some details around it. 

Underdogs:  We only play underdogs.  If you’re a favorite, you’re not on our card.  To start most people don’t like playing underdogs.  They don’t win as much.  They are not as good as their opponent, and people simply don’t understand the pricing of underdogs.  This leads to mispriced underdogs across the board.  There has been a multitude of articles and even an academic study showing that betting on underdogs can be profitable.

Run Differential: After compiling the list of all the days’ underdogs, the next thing you want to do is throw out the super shitty teams.  Even though underdogs are profitable, not all are.  This is what we use to screen out betting on teams that are going to lose more than their fair share (maybe even more that they don’t win 60).  Run differential (“run dif”) is the amount of runs scored – runs allowed.   Run dif is widely considered to be a good predictor of a teams quality.  The way we screen using run differential is we throw out any team who has a negative run differential that is a great than a certain percentage of their games played.  For example if you wanted to use 60% as the screen and a team has played 30 games, if their run differential is worse than -18 (30 x .60) than you would throw them out.

Above Average Pitchers:  Pitching is a huge determinant in both price and outcome.  We want to eliminate teams playing above average pitchers.  There’s a multitude of stats and advanced stats you can use.  In the past we’ve used Jeff Sagarin’s power rankings.  You can use ERA, FIP (fielding independent pitching) or whatever you want.  You can throw out teams playing the best 15, 20 or 25 pitchers in MLB or a giving league based on any of the measures above.  The idea is to determine some sort of ranking that eliminates teams facing above average pitchers. 

We happen to like using FIP as a measure and eliminate top pitchers from the previous month.   Why FIP and the previous month?  For one FIP is a better measure than ERA and for 2 you can search top pitchers by month from previous years at www.fangraphs .com.   This aided with back testing and knowing when we actually go to bet we can use the previous months ranking.  We had used Sagarin’s rankings in the past, but you can only back test against previous year’s FINAL standings.  This can be difficult when you’re in the current year  because you don’t know if that pitcher your betting will be in the top 15, 20, 25, etc. that year.

Pricing: The last metric is around pricing.  We did some back testing to see if there was a certain minimum and maximum price where the rest of the criteria started to see less of a return.  From 2009-2011 playing underdogs greater than +180 (i.e. +190) led to less of a return.  Playing teams at less than +110 made a difference in some years, but not in others so we go ahead and play any dog less than +180.

Once you’ve written down all the underdogs, scratched off the crappy teams and eliminated any team playing an ace pitcher, you’re left with who we usually bet on.  Who is that you may ask?  Well it often ends up being mediocre or better teams, against mediocre or worse pitchers at prices where you may not even need to hit 50% to turn a profit.  What you’ve also probably ended up with is a team that is likely playing in one of its 60 games it should win, 60 games it opponent should lose, or even if its in one of the 42 games that’s 50/50 you’re still getting +$$$.  Leave thoughts or questions in the comments or on Twitter.  What other criteria makes sense to you?

MLB for May 9th


COL +115
OAK +125
TB +125
BAL +120
SEA +115
SF +120