Going into June we're going to back off a little bit. Both in number of plays and how much. Unless otherwise noted everything will be a 1 unit position moving forward. However, with that being said we have our first 3 unit play and our first play on a favorite. Both come in MN/CLE game tonight at Jacob's Field (yes, Jacob's).
You may have noticed we've been playing team totals here and there over the last few weeks. We've been doing this mostly (and with some success) based on ground ball pitcher facing some of the most ground ball friendly teams (SD, SF, MN and CHC). Tonight we have the pitcher who induces the highest number of ground balls (Derek Lowe) facing the team who hits the most ground balls (MN).
Last time out Lowe pitched a complete game shutout without a strikeout and induced 4 double play balls. One would expect that at least part of this may continue. Mr. Lowe might not have the same amount of success he had last time out, but under 4 runs at -105 looks quite appealing.
Two other components that look appealing are the Indians at -125 facing a right handed pitcher (Pavano) who's FIP is 63 points higher against left handed batters (despite a lower BABIP) and who's K/BB is 7.5 against right-handers compared to 3.2 against left-handers. The Tribe features a lineup almost completely full of lefties.
The final component we are going to play is something we rarely do, and that Runs + Hits + Errors. Despite playing the under with MN team total, we like the R+H+E to go over 28 tonight. We fully expect Lowe to allow some hits and base runners, but get out of jams with the double play ball. (It also is a slight hedge on our bigger position of the MN TT.
Our official card for 6/1:
3 Units
MN TT u4 -105 (ITGTeam)
2 Units
CLE -125 (ITGTeam)
1 Unit
MN/CLE R+H+E over 28 -115
BOS +105 (ITGTeam)
LAA +105