Ittttsssss bbaaaackkkkk!!! Football season! We're back to try and build off last year's successful CFB season. We take a two pronged approach to CFB. You'll see our two unit positions starting in Week 4 which are based on our models which use the last 3 weeks data. We also do our own handicapping which are usually 1 unit places, but from time to time can range all the way up to 3 units. We usually try to add an explanation to these positions, whereas the model positions will not have an explanation. Below is what we're on and a position we're hoping to get a number on closer to kick.
CFB (1 units)
OH St. -22.5 This is mostly a play on Urban Meyer. He's been one of the best ATS coaches in all of CFB while coaching. In addition, this is his debut in his absolute dream job, the only job he probably would have returned to coaching for. Meyer is also 6-2 ATS in Week 1 (or the first lined game - a few week ones were unlined) at Florida and Utah (we doubt Bowling Green was ever a 3 TD favorite in Week 1). You have to think he's going to push the envelope in his first game and his team will want to give maximum effort in their first performance for him.
Penn St. -6 There's a theory out there on how to bet on injury news. The theory goes that most people overreact to the injury, and the best position is to play the adjusted line on the team with the injury. That's our theory here. The line opened at -10.5 and has since dropped to -6. At some point a line falls too far, and under 7 was that number for us. Ohio will also face a raucous crowd who will really look to support their team in their first game back since the Sandusky Scandal. Something says Ohio maybe unprepared for playing in front of 107,000+ who are treating this game as more than the typical warm-up, Week1 game against a MAC team it was scheduled as.
BYU -12.5 BYU opens up against a Washington St. team now led by Mike Leach. This feels like a horrible matchup for WA St.. BYU has a stabilized its QB situation that should only improve after going on a 9 game winning streak to end the year. What's most notable is the seven starters they return from last years #14 defense. Leach debuting his "uncoventional" offense, with guys he didn't recruit for it, and haven't had time to become fully immersed in it, against what could be one of the country's best defenses this year, smells like trouble.
We'll also be looking to play Vanderbilt at a TD or more on Thursday.