Week 5 - CFB Version (Nightcappers)

Rough day so far.  It has to get better, right?

FAU +4
Iowa/Baylor under 64
MI/NW under 60

Earlier we added
NW +8

Good luck, we could use some nice night games.

Week 5 - CFB Version (Afternoon Games)

We're on the following in the afternoon:

2 ★

Arizona -1.5 @ Oregon St.
Central Michigan +10.5 @ NC St.
OH -8.5 @ Buffalo
Kansas / Ok St. under 74.5

1★
Air Force +14 @ Notre Dame

Week 5 - CFB Version

Thursday was a bit tough going 1-2.  We had two chances for Cal to swing in the backdoor and got beat in overtime with W. KY and MTSU.  Disappointing, yet watching the games it seemed like we were on the right track, which is all you can hope for.

This week we have a lot of positions that are borderline, so please follow us on Twitter @TheSportsMarket.  We may actually try and put them in a blog.  Look for a post before the 3:30 games and another before the night games.  Now on to our plays with a write-up for the models this week, and be write-up we mean Yeungling infused obnoxious comments (sorry, it just got to OH).  Yes, the models did get run before Yeungling got here.

2 ★

MS St. -19.5 @ UAB (Last time we dance Bulldogs, last time we dance)

FL St. -10 @ Wake Forest (We fear the trap game with Duke next week)

Temple -9 @ Ball St. (Sorry Whitlock, Jeff George exhausted his eligibility)

E. MI +21 @ Toledo (The opposite of HBO's Michigan / OH St: The Rivalry)

AZ / OR St. under 59.5 (The Pac-12 Basement Slap Fight Championship, you thought we'd take the over?)

Ohio St. / Nebraska under 45 (Have you seen OH St. play offense? Start the Justin Zwick chants!)

Air Force / Notre Dame under 55 (Defenses be stomping in their Air Force Ones - Yes, we're that cheesy)


FL/LSU under 42.5 (We've got nothing, go defense)


1 ★

Luckily, we wrote these before Yeungling reached OH.


Nebraska -10 Feel free to take a look at our comments above.    At the beginning of the week, we had this game pegged around this #, assuming the return of the Tattoo 4/5.  With the further suspensions, we see no reason Ohio St. can produce more than about 14 points.  When you combine that with Nebraska being embarrassed on national TV and coming home?  You'd have to think the Huskers will be focused and giving an intense effort.  We swear we're not trying to piggy back and ride @beyondthebets #FadeFickell, and thought this would be the week to hop off the #FadeFickellBandwagon.  However, value is value.

Pittsburgh -7 @ Rutgers  This is Pittsburgh's second road game, however Rutgers good performances  one could argue are based on smoke and mirrors.  Both Rutgers yards per pass and yards per rush have been skewed higher by their performance against North Carolina Central, its been ugly otherwise. Pit beats them in YPA, YPR both offensively and defensively (save for defensively against the rush) against much better competition.  Have to like the Panthers on that basis, with a long week to prepare.

Three more games we're going to wait on.  Air Force @ Notre Dame, NW vs. MI, and FL @ LSU.  All are dogs playing public teams.  We think we can get at least a 1/2 point by waiting.

Week 5 - Thursday CFB

Not a long blog write-up tonight.  We have two model plays, and may have one more to add via Twitter a little closer to game time.  With Oregon being a favorite at home, in a night game its likely to be a public play along with the over.  If you wait closer to game time you may be able to get an extra half point.

We wanted to get this posted at least, but will be waiting ourselves.  We'd still play this down to +23 and under 64.5, but will wait in the hopes of getting to +24.5 and 66.

2 ★


California +24
California / Oregon under 65.5


Follow us @TheSportsMarket for any possible in game wagers and if we move on the W. KY / MTSU game.

Week 4 Recap - NFL Version

First we want to apologize for not getting out some positions we took Sunday morning.  We went to the Cleveland Browns game, and apparently our Tweets didn't post.  We won't be including them in any of our recording tracking, as we want to keep everything as open and honest as possible.

On what we were able to post here we came through on the positive side of the ledger.  We went 3-2 and picked up 1.6 units.  We're slowly digging out of our hole from week one.  For the season we're now 11-13 and down 2.1 units,  for a -6.71% return.

We usually would go into some leans we have for this week, however we'll be joining our friends @BurnRiverSports on their weekly Fantasy Football internet radio show. You can find it here: http://www.clevelandsportsforums.com/forums/forums/137-Fantasy-Focus.  The show goes from 8pm-10pm EST on Wednesdays, and they're very good at what they do.  We'll be joining them for a segment a few minutes after 9pm, and will discuss our approach to sports investing and our early week leans.  We hope you tune in.

Week 4 Recap - CFB Version

The market came back against us this week.  We did well in our own handicapping, but the model wasn't quite as successful.  We went 14-14, and lost 4.7 units.  Luckily, we did pass on a middle in the Nebraska/Wisconsin game and cashed our Wisconsin -2 ticket (not included in the totals).  For the year we're 41-30 and +7.1 units, with a 5.79% return.  Let's hope we can bounce back this week.

Some early leans:
Minnesota +10 @ Purdue
Temple -9.5 @ Ball St.
Toledo -20.5 vs E. Michigan
Air Force +16 @ Notre Dame (definately if it hits 17)
AZ St. -3.5 @ Utah
Nebraska -10.5 vs. Ohio St.

Week 4 - NFL Version

This week we introduce our NFL Model.  It works much in the way the CFB Model does with various algorithms narrowing games down for us.  Let's hope it truly is better than our own handicapping, as that didn't go so well, the first few weeks.  Our positions for Week 4.

2 ★


Spreads:
New Orleans -7
PIT +3.5
TN -1
AZ +1


Totals:
SD/MIA under 44.5


As always, don't forget to follow us on Twitter @TheSportsMarket.  We'll likely have a few more adds tomorrow, as we think some lines may improve.