Week 8 CFB Recap and MNF

It took us 3 weeks, but we're back on the positive side of the ledger after "Raging Horrible Variance Saturday." Let that be a lesson, what goes down can come up and that also works the other way.  The key is maintain your focus and approach and not letting something too bad or too good knock you off your game.  A wise man once told me, "Stay medium."  There's no better lesson when dealing with variance.

This week we went 13-7-2 in college football and picked up 6.4 units.  For the year that brings us to 88-77 and +3.45 units for a 1.09% return.

For Monday Night Football tonight, we have one position:

2 ★

San Diego -3

Week 8 - NFL

What games last night!  Stanford/USC and Ohio St. / Wisconsin were epic. The Buckeyes got a big outright win, and we got a push with Southern Cal on one of the baddest of beats this year.  Not quite as crazy, as the USC/Utah game, but a tough push nonetheless. Hopefully, you line shopped and got the best of the line there no matter what side you were on (Stanford was -7.5 to 8.5 at certain times). Pretty sure we got juiced yesterday, but will do a full recap on Monday.  For today here's what we like:

2 ★
Cincinnati -1
Indianapolis +9
NO -13.5
Baltimore -12
MN +3.5
Jacksonville / Houston under 41
Jacksonville +10
Pittsburgh +3
Dallas +3.5


We may have a few more through out the day, so don't forget to follow us on Twitter @TheSportsMarket.

Week 8 - CFB Early Afternoon

Some additions for the afternoon, dont forget to follow us on Twitter at @TheSportsMarket as we may have a few more throughout the day.


2 ★
Mississippi +13
South Carolina / TN under 55
Nevada -15.5

1★
Southern California +8

Week 8 - CFB Morning

Here's some additions from last night for this AM:

2 ★
Northwestner -8.5
UAB +5.5
UAB/Marshall under 52

Week 8 CFB

This week we look to continue the last two weeks of profitability.  We've put the following positions in today, and will likely add some through out the day tomorrow.   We start with our model plays:

2 ★
Arizona +4
Iowa St. +15
Boston College +7.5
Hawaii / Idaho under 56.5
Syracuse / Louisville under 44
Air Force / New Mexico under 63
Clemson / Georgia Tech under 63.5
Iowa / Minnesota under 55
Northwestern / Indiana under 60.5
Iowa St. / Texas Tech under 66.5

And the following are based on our own handicapping:



2 ★


Nebraska -4:  Can you say let down game?  After Michigan State's enormous win last week against Wisconsin in an emotional last second fashion, they are prime for big let down.  When you combine that with some of their struggles outside of East Lansing, where they scored only 10 points against Ohio St. and 13 against Notre Dame, this is a good spot for the Huskers.


1 ★


Ohio St. +7.5: The Buckeyes have had an extra week to prepare for Wisconsin, and some may think Wisconsin will be angry and take it out on the hapless Buckeyes, we don't think so.  Last week Wisconsin was finally exposed for its weak schedule.  It finally played its first away game and now must go on the road again.  We think this is a perfect spot for the Buckeyes, a night game where their defense should be amped up under the lights to stop Wisconsins "vaunted' offense.  Also, the Buckeye's have to be very low in market value right now.  Everyone will point to their offense ineptitude this season, and 1 of 4 passing effort in their last game against Illinois.  We however, don't share this sentiment.  Bauserman is finally where about 90% of his passes ended up, on the sidelines.  The real key here is Dan "Boom" Herron's return.  He showed against IL that he helps the offense immensely rolling up 114 yards, and finally helping to give Miller the running game he's so desperately needed to rely on the first several weeks.  Additionally, the WI offense has looked impressive, but so is the Buckeye defense.  We know WI offense can score, but we think they can be slowed down just enough for the OH St. offense to stay with them in game that stays around a FG and in the mid/high 20s.  We'll take the points and say Wisconsin 27 Buckeys 24.

Week 7 Recap and Wednesday Night CFB

A good college football weekend for us, as we've almost completely eliminated our horrendous Week 5 Saturday in two weeks time.  On the non-paid players (allegedly) slate we went 13-8, and added 8.6 units back into our pockets.  For the year this brings us to 75-70, -2.95 units and a -1.08% return.

We struggled a bit more in the NFL, mostly due to our teaser round robin coming up completely empty.  We were 4-7, losing 6.8 units.  For the year we're now 29-32 and down 7.5 units for a -6.67% return.  We'll keep grinding through as our models usually improve as more data in inputted.

Tonight we have one position in the college football match up, and not just because its Wednesday night.  We try and only play weekday games if we would play them on the weekend.  With that being said,

2 ★
UConn / Pittsburgh under 42

Good luck, and we'll be posting some interesting analysis regarding how sharp lines really are tomorrow.

Week 7 - NFL MNF

Tonight, we have our first Monday Night Football position.  We usually try to approach these like any other game.  Playing MNF because its MNF is never a good idea.  Our algorithms (two actually) like the Ravens -10.  This is a two unit position for us.  We probably should have been smarter and played it earlier in the week at 9 or 9.5.  Although we're not getting the best of the number, this is a position our model likes regardless.

We're gonna try and get something posted recapping our CFB weekend and NFL tomorrow.  At some point we're going to discuss a very interesting article passed along on Twitter by @ToddFuhrman who runs Caesars' Sportsbook.  He's a great follow.

Good luck tonight.

Week 7 - NFL

Here's what we're on in the NFL Today in addition to the teaser we gave out earlier this week.  We gave some of these out on Wednesday when we did our weekly visit with @BurnRiverSports on his radio show.  We'll be with him tomorrow live from the Muni-Lot before the Browns game.  We may hop on and discuss any big line moves.  We'll tweet a link as soon as its available.

2 ★
Seattle +3
Chicago -1
PIttsburgh -3.5
GB -9.5
SD +1
Houston +3

Week 7 - CFB Evening

A profitable start to the day, this round out our night:

2 ★
Tulsa +10
Army / Vandy under 46.5
Oregon St. +3
New Mexico St. +22.5

Slight lean to MI St. and USC, but passing on the main games.

Week 7 - CFB Version

Good morning to everyone.  We got hurt on two positions last night, but are hoping for a profitable Saturday.  We'll have a more extensive blog next week regarding standard deviation from closing numbers that was released by some Harvard smart people.  Until then, here's what we're on in College football today.

2 ★
UC/USF under 55
N. IL / Buffalo under 63
Arkansas / Missouri under 56.5
La Tech / UTah St. under 57.5
Maryland +18
East Carolina +12
NC St. / VA under 52
NW +4.5
MTSU/FAu under 50.5
UTEP / CO St. under 54


2 ★
KS St. -10
IL -3.5
OK St. -6.5

As always, please follow us on Twitter @TheSportsMarket.  We probably won't be posting additional blogs, but may have a few more positions to release.

Week 6 - Recap

We were able to bounce back pretty good after a horrible CFB Week 5.  We went 17-11 and got back 14.1 units in one weekend.  We hope to keep it going strong and finish digging out of this hole.  We've brought our record back to even, and are down 11.5 units with a return of -5.00%.

In the NFL we went 8-5, adding 3 second half plays via our Twitter account @TheSportsMarket that went 2-1.      We'll continue to try and look for blowouts to play the under.  For the year we've come almost completely back from an ugly Week 1.  We're 25-25 and down just 0.5 units for a -0.56% return.

Nothing on MNF for us, we maybe back tomorrow if there's something in the Sun Belt Conference that offers value.

Week 6 - NFL

Here's what we're on today in the NFL.  We posted some of these earlier in the week, so the lines have changed, but they were available when we first posted.

2 ★
Carolina +4
MN +3
Baltimore -6.5
NO -5
Oakland -6.5
Cincy -6
GB -14
Pittsburgh -12.5
Pittsburgh / Jax under 42 (we got this locally, but would play the widely available 40)
New Orleans / Tampa under 50

We may have one more at 4, check our twitter for that.

Week 6 - CFB Evening

Rounding out our card:

2 ★
N. Texas / La - Laf under 55.5
Boise St. -32
GA -13
E. Carolina -13.5
NW +6.5
GA / Vandy under 42
FL / Auburn under 50.5
UAB +21.5
Idaho +1

Week 6 - CFB Afternoon

Looks like we're bouncing a back in these early games.  Here's what we're on for the afternoon games:

2 ★
Rice/Marshall under 51.5
E. MI / C. MI under 51
Ok St. / TX under 64.5
Georgia Tech / Virginia under 56
Oregon St. -2.5
Ball St. +14.5
Colorado +17
Ohio St. +4
Rice +5
UTEP +1.5



1 ★
Georgia Tech -7.5
S. FL -7
OK St. -7.5

Week 6 - CFB Early Games

We finally got a win last night.  Let's hope we can continue the bounce back today.  Here's what we're on in the early games.  We'll be back around 3:00 for the afternoon ones.

2 ★

Penn St. / Purdue under 41

Miami FL +3 @ North Carolina

South Carolina / MS St. under 47

Iowa St. +16

Navy +4

Navy / Rutgers under 54

UNLV / WY under 55

Week 6 - Thursday CFB

A 1 unit position for us tonight:

California +3.5 vs USC.  If you read our blog or tweets often you know we love Thursday night home teams, especially dogs.  This is a good spot for Cal having played last Thursday and given a full week to rest up.  This is USC's only 2nd road game.  They struggled mightily on defense against AZ St.  Cal should be able to run rough shod over the Trojans and have enough defense from being pumped up at home on National TV for a likely straight up win.  They were a sliver away from covering last week, and we don't see that happening again.  A nice number at +3.5 is enticing as well.

Week 5 - Recap Variance and Bankroll Management

Saturday was not a great day.  The day was filled with both bad beats and bad capping, and we apologize to anyone we led astray this past Saturday.  We went 4-21 lost 36.3 units, giving back everything we earned over the first few weeks of the college football season.  Our only comfort was we didn't make stupid mistakes.  We didn't chase.  We didn't increase our bet size.  We didn't try to bail ourselves out.  You do this long enough and days like Saturday happen.  A day like Saturday is a great reminder of the importance of understanding variance and proper bankroll management.  Without the latter, we probably wouldn't be able to wager after last weekend.

Variance:

Negative variance is the cruel reminder as to why we never can get too overconfident during a hot streak.  We don't want to get to overly statistical, but we're likely to bet over 2,000 units in a year.  Some days are good, some days are bad, some days are horrible, and some days are unbelievable.  The idea is to win enough to provide ourselves an adequate return.  Most people who do this for a living play games where you have to lay 11 to win 10, and are winning 55-60% of their wagers over a long period of time.  The key being a long period of time. If anyone says they're hitting over 60% they're a) lying or b) did so over a statistically insignificant number of wagers.  The point in variance is that you sometimes have big highs and sometimes you have deep lows, you can't look at it in a vacuum.  The real key is not letting the short-term (i.e. Saturday) influence the long-term.  It is a marathon, not a sprint.  So when we say we didn't make any huge mistakes, it’s because despite the bad results, we used or same approach which we have confidence in, but at the same time are willing to slightly adjust as the market does.  As miserable as bad variance can be, or as high as you can get during a good run, the key is to maintain the same focus and approach and make sure you have the bankroll to support it.

Bankroll Management:

First, one must determine how large a bankroll is necessary for the wagers you are going to make.  Determine a bankroll you're comfortable with, then determine how much you’re willing to wager as a unit, AND DON'T STRAY FROM IT.  If you want to increase your units based on the confidence you have in a position, that makes sense.  Constantly varying how much your unit is (and the greater you vary it) the more you expose yourself to ruin.  There is a great principle known as the Kelly Criterioni, which is a great guide to how much of your bankroll you should wager.  There's even a convenient  calculator.  Our only issue is often people over estimate their statistical advantage.  Some people use a Fractional Kelly Criterion (i.e. 25% of the output it produces, 50%, etc.).  There are other similar ideologies out there, but this is a good basis.

If you're looking to protect a bankroll, your unit size should be 1%-2% of your bankroll.  This would allow you to lose 50-100 units over a short-term period and still stay above water.  It sounds crazy, but it happens.  Black swans (insert links) exist.  You likely shouldn't ever go above 5% of your bankroll on one single wager.  This goes back to what we were talking about earlier, when we said we didn't chase.  Often this can be one of the biggest mistakes bettors make.  You have a bad weekend and try to earn it back on Monday Night Football.  It may work now and again, but putting that much risk out there on one game is never a good idea.  The only way we could recommend betting a larger amount of your bankroll is if it is something that is of disposable income, that you don't mind replenishing.  For instance say your bankroll is $1,000.  We recommend betting $10, $20 per unit.  However, say you're willing to replenish that $1,000 as part of your disposable income each month.  Then being more aggressive and using 7%-10% of your bankroll makes sense, as you have other income and ways to replenish your bankroll.

When would you vary your unit size you may ask?  Some people look at it on a week by week or month by month basis.  Since all of our models are tested on a seasonal basis, making a position in Week 6 the same value as one in Week 17, we tend to look at our bankroll at the end of each season.  For instance we determined our unit size going into this football season as MLB wrapped up.  We'll likely do this again in mid-late December as we go full force into College Basketball.

We hope that helps explain how to survive a horrible day.  The bottom line is variance happens.  We won't lie, it blows.  It’s pretty miserable.  The key is to remember it’s a marathon, not a sprint.  Keep your proper approach and bankroll management and you'll be able to take advantage of the upswing as everything regresses to the mean.

Rather than our college football leans, we'll give out a few of our 2 ★ positions in the NFL this week.  We put some of these out when we joined @BurningRiverSports on his radio show.

Carolina +4

Minnesota +3

Baltimore -7.5 (although we're waiting to submit int he hopes it gets down to 7).

New Orleans -4.5 (a move to 5, doesn't hurt we'll be watching this one as well).

Week 5 - NFL Version

Yesterday was one of the worst betting days in our career and probably the worst in CFB.  We want to apologize to anyone we led astray and will be looking deeper into our models to see if there's something we're missing.  We'll just grind on further and work harder this week.  We didn't make any "dumb" or "stupid" mistakes by chasing, so we still believe we were using the right approach.  We caught a few bad beats, and you'll have that, so we're hopefully chalking up yesterday to some rough variance.

If you've done this for any extended period of time, you know days like yesterday happen.  This week in the blog we'll cover variance and money management.  Proper use of the latter allows you to survive days like yesterday.

Today we grind on to the NFL and are on the following:

2 ★


Cincinnati -1 (3 algorithms like this)
AZ +3
SF -2.5 (2 algorithms like this)
Denver +4
GB -5.5
NYJ +7.5
TN +3
KC +1
NO -6.5
NO/Carolina under 51
MN/AZ under 45

Good luck today and let's bounce back.

Week 5 - CFB Version (Nightcappers)

Rough day so far.  It has to get better, right?

FAU +4
Iowa/Baylor under 64
MI/NW under 60

Earlier we added
NW +8

Good luck, we could use some nice night games.

Week 5 - CFB Version (Afternoon Games)

We're on the following in the afternoon:

2 ★

Arizona -1.5 @ Oregon St.
Central Michigan +10.5 @ NC St.
OH -8.5 @ Buffalo
Kansas / Ok St. under 74.5

1★
Air Force +14 @ Notre Dame

Week 5 - CFB Version

Thursday was a bit tough going 1-2.  We had two chances for Cal to swing in the backdoor and got beat in overtime with W. KY and MTSU.  Disappointing, yet watching the games it seemed like we were on the right track, which is all you can hope for.

This week we have a lot of positions that are borderline, so please follow us on Twitter @TheSportsMarket.  We may actually try and put them in a blog.  Look for a post before the 3:30 games and another before the night games.  Now on to our plays with a write-up for the models this week, and be write-up we mean Yeungling infused obnoxious comments (sorry, it just got to OH).  Yes, the models did get run before Yeungling got here.

2 ★

MS St. -19.5 @ UAB (Last time we dance Bulldogs, last time we dance)

FL St. -10 @ Wake Forest (We fear the trap game with Duke next week)

Temple -9 @ Ball St. (Sorry Whitlock, Jeff George exhausted his eligibility)

E. MI +21 @ Toledo (The opposite of HBO's Michigan / OH St: The Rivalry)

AZ / OR St. under 59.5 (The Pac-12 Basement Slap Fight Championship, you thought we'd take the over?)

Ohio St. / Nebraska under 45 (Have you seen OH St. play offense? Start the Justin Zwick chants!)

Air Force / Notre Dame under 55 (Defenses be stomping in their Air Force Ones - Yes, we're that cheesy)


FL/LSU under 42.5 (We've got nothing, go defense)


1 ★

Luckily, we wrote these before Yeungling reached OH.


Nebraska -10 Feel free to take a look at our comments above.    At the beginning of the week, we had this game pegged around this #, assuming the return of the Tattoo 4/5.  With the further suspensions, we see no reason Ohio St. can produce more than about 14 points.  When you combine that with Nebraska being embarrassed on national TV and coming home?  You'd have to think the Huskers will be focused and giving an intense effort.  We swear we're not trying to piggy back and ride @beyondthebets #FadeFickell, and thought this would be the week to hop off the #FadeFickellBandwagon.  However, value is value.

Pittsburgh -7 @ Rutgers  This is Pittsburgh's second road game, however Rutgers good performances  one could argue are based on smoke and mirrors.  Both Rutgers yards per pass and yards per rush have been skewed higher by their performance against North Carolina Central, its been ugly otherwise. Pit beats them in YPA, YPR both offensively and defensively (save for defensively against the rush) against much better competition.  Have to like the Panthers on that basis, with a long week to prepare.

Three more games we're going to wait on.  Air Force @ Notre Dame, NW vs. MI, and FL @ LSU.  All are dogs playing public teams.  We think we can get at least a 1/2 point by waiting.

Week 5 - Thursday CFB

Not a long blog write-up tonight.  We have two model plays, and may have one more to add via Twitter a little closer to game time.  With Oregon being a favorite at home, in a night game its likely to be a public play along with the over.  If you wait closer to game time you may be able to get an extra half point.

We wanted to get this posted at least, but will be waiting ourselves.  We'd still play this down to +23 and under 64.5, but will wait in the hopes of getting to +24.5 and 66.

2 ★


California +24
California / Oregon under 65.5


Follow us @TheSportsMarket for any possible in game wagers and if we move on the W. KY / MTSU game.

Week 4 Recap - NFL Version

First we want to apologize for not getting out some positions we took Sunday morning.  We went to the Cleveland Browns game, and apparently our Tweets didn't post.  We won't be including them in any of our recording tracking, as we want to keep everything as open and honest as possible.

On what we were able to post here we came through on the positive side of the ledger.  We went 3-2 and picked up 1.6 units.  We're slowly digging out of our hole from week one.  For the season we're now 11-13 and down 2.1 units,  for a -6.71% return.

We usually would go into some leans we have for this week, however we'll be joining our friends @BurnRiverSports on their weekly Fantasy Football internet radio show. You can find it here: http://www.clevelandsportsforums.com/forums/forums/137-Fantasy-Focus.  The show goes from 8pm-10pm EST on Wednesdays, and they're very good at what they do.  We'll be joining them for a segment a few minutes after 9pm, and will discuss our approach to sports investing and our early week leans.  We hope you tune in.

Week 4 Recap - CFB Version

The market came back against us this week.  We did well in our own handicapping, but the model wasn't quite as successful.  We went 14-14, and lost 4.7 units.  Luckily, we did pass on a middle in the Nebraska/Wisconsin game and cashed our Wisconsin -2 ticket (not included in the totals).  For the year we're 41-30 and +7.1 units, with a 5.79% return.  Let's hope we can bounce back this week.

Some early leans:
Minnesota +10 @ Purdue
Temple -9.5 @ Ball St.
Toledo -20.5 vs E. Michigan
Air Force +16 @ Notre Dame (definately if it hits 17)
AZ St. -3.5 @ Utah
Nebraska -10.5 vs. Ohio St.

Week 4 - NFL Version

This week we introduce our NFL Model.  It works much in the way the CFB Model does with various algorithms narrowing games down for us.  Let's hope it truly is better than our own handicapping, as that didn't go so well, the first few weeks.  Our positions for Week 4.

2 ★


Spreads:
New Orleans -7
PIT +3.5
TN -1
AZ +1


Totals:
SD/MIA under 44.5


As always, don't forget to follow us on Twitter @TheSportsMarket.  We'll likely have a few more adds tomorrow, as we think some lines may improve.