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Friday, October 28, 2011

Week 8 CFB

This week we look to continue the last two weeks of profitability.  We've put the following positions in today, and will likely add some through out the day tomorrow.   We start with our model plays:

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Arizona +4
Iowa St. +15
Boston College +7.5
Hawaii / Idaho under 56.5
Syracuse / Louisville under 44
Air Force / New Mexico under 63
Clemson / Georgia Tech under 63.5
Iowa / Minnesota under 55
Northwestern / Indiana under 60.5
Iowa St. / Texas Tech under 66.5

And the following are based on our own handicapping:



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Nebraska -4:  Can you say let down game?  After Michigan State's enormous win last week against Wisconsin in an emotional last second fashion, they are prime for big let down.  When you combine that with some of their struggles outside of East Lansing, where they scored only 10 points against Ohio St. and 13 against Notre Dame, this is a good spot for the Huskers.


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Ohio St. +7.5: The Buckeyes have had an extra week to prepare for Wisconsin, and some may think Wisconsin will be angry and take it out on the hapless Buckeyes, we don't think so.  Last week Wisconsin was finally exposed for its weak schedule.  It finally played its first away game and now must go on the road again.  We think this is a perfect spot for the Buckeyes, a night game where their defense should be amped up under the lights to stop Wisconsins "vaunted' offense.  Also, the Buckeye's have to be very low in market value right now.  Everyone will point to their offense ineptitude this season, and 1 of 4 passing effort in their last game against Illinois.  We however, don't share this sentiment.  Bauserman is finally where about 90% of his passes ended up, on the sidelines.  The real key here is Dan "Boom" Herron's return.  He showed against IL that he helps the offense immensely rolling up 114 yards, and finally helping to give Miller the running game he's so desperately needed to rely on the first several weeks.  Additionally, the WI offense has looked impressive, but so is the Buckeye defense.  We know WI offense can score, but we think they can be slowed down just enough for the OH St. offense to stay with them in game that stays around a FG and in the mid/high 20s.  We'll take the points and say Wisconsin 27 Buckeys 24.



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