Conference Tournament Futures (PAC12, SEC, ACC, BIG10)

The last of the conference tournament futures.  In the PAC12 where the Tournament is very wide open we're showing value on California, Arizona and Stanford.  Cal and Arizona are on opposite sides of the bracket so we'll actually be playing both on the ML starting tomorrow and hope they're both in the Championship Game.

In the SEC there's value on Kentucky and Alabama.  We'll be playing AL in the tournament starting on Friday (as they're a heavy favorite against S. Carolina).  Many have seen Kentucky vs. the Field options.  Depending on which of the % you put more faith in (Team Rankings vs. Ken Pom) they're may or may not be value on those.

In the ACC their is some value on VA and Miami FL.  Virginia seems to be fading fast so we'll be playing Miami FL.  There's a bit of value on Roy Williams' Tar Heels, but historically they haven't given maximum effort until the real tournament.

In the Big 10 we're showing two options: Indiana and Michigan St.  We'll likely play both on the ML starting in the quarterfinals and cash in Indiana if they meet Michigan St.  Izzo is one of our favorite coaches to back in the post-season and Indiana has struggled a bit outside of Bloomington this year.

Conference Tournament Futures (A10, Big East, Big 12, CUSA, MAC, MEAC,

Tonight we have our first shot at actually cashing something our analysis has led us to play.  Fairfield plays Loyola MD as 2.5 point favorite and -140 on the ML to represent the MAAC in the NCAA Tournament.  We have 3 units of which to risk or hold on to.  We can risk all 3 and win 2.2 units giving us 5.2 units with a win or we can take one off the table, risk 2 units to win 1.4.  This would essentially give us a risk less bet, by taking our original 1 unit off the table.  These payouts are slightly below the +500 offered before the tournament because we did not bet Fairfield in their first matchup as a heavy favorite.  We're going to choose to take our original one unit off the table and wager 2 units on Fairfield at -140.  This would net us a 3.2 unit profit with a win and no loss either way.

Below we have the same analysis we've been running for the A10, Big East, Big 12, CUSA, MAC, & MEAC.  Based on our analysis in the A10 there's a little bit of value on St. Louis (we'll be passing).  In the Big East there's also a very minuscule amount of value on Syracuse.  Shifting to the middle of the country in the Big 12 Kansas presents some nice value.  Because they will be a favorite in every game, we'll just go ahead and play the future at KS +105 to win the Big 12.  There really isn't any value in CUSA with Memphis as such a dominant force, which is the polar opposite of the MAC.

The MAC is about as wide open as conference can be, there is value appearing from all over the place.  Toledo, Kent St., Bowling Green and Miami OH all show value based on the current odds.  Toledo and Miami OH actually play each other tonight, so we'll likely look to play the winner of this matchup in the next game on the ML.  In addition we like Bowling Green, but its not worth risking a lot for a small payoff to start the tournament as such a heavy favorite.  We'll look to play them in the next round.  Remember, even with these long shots its not necessarily about trying to hit a 200:1 or 125:1 shot, but being able to lock in profit at a later date or take some money off the table and have a "riskless" bet moving forward.  

Back east in the MEAC both Savannah St. and NC Central are showing value.  NC Central is showing the most value based on the below and we'll be playing them when this tournament kicks off tomorrow.

2★
Fairfield -140


1★
Kansas +105 to win Big 12 Tournament

Saturday March 3rd CBB Through 5pm

Here's what we have through 5pm tonight, we'll back back later with the evening card.

2★
Duquesne/ St. Louis under 132
WV +1
WV/SF under 119.5
E. Michigan +5
Nova/Cincy under 138.5
Wofford/W. Carolina under 129.5
St. Bonaventure +3.5
TN +1
Cuse/Louisville under 132
Louisville +8.5


1★
Rider +8.5

Conference Tournament Futures (Big Sky, Summit, Sun Belt)

Below you'll find the analysis we've been doing all week for conference tournaments.  By our analysis below it would appear there is value on Portland St. and Eastern Washington.  Both play today in the quarterfinals.  In the Sun Belt there appears to be some value with Denver. We'll be playing Eastern Washington -500 today and Denver when they tip off in the Sun Belt, both for 1 unit.

Friday March 2 CBB

Last night was a rough one after some stellar work the last 10 days.  Here's what we have for tonight with a breakdown of the Big Sky, Summit and Sun Belt coming later.

4★
ND/Providence under 132

2★
W. MI -2.5

PA/Brown under 130

Yale +6

BYU/SD under 146.5

1★
W. MI -2.5

Thursday March 1st CBB

"It's March!  Take a deep breath!  Here we go!"

The next month should be a blast.  Be sure to checkout our on going conference tournament odds comparison throughout this week and next.  The regular season is beginning to wind down, but we do have a few positions tonight.

3★
La Tech / Fresno under 129


2★
Nova/Rutgers under 138
Jax St. / Morehead under 117.5
OR/Colorado under 137.5
UT St. -4.5


1★
Bradley +7
SD -3.5

Conference Tournament Futures (MAAC, MVC, Northeast).

Tonight we've put together an analysis of the MAAC, MVC and Northeast as we have all week.  As you may or may not know we use TeamRankings.com and Ken Pom who utilizes a Log5 analysis and then compare them to current odds.  You can see a full breakdown of each team conference below.


Based on this analysis you may find value on Manhattan and Fairfiled in the MAAC (we're likely to play both on the ML when they start tomorrow), Wichita St. in the MVC (we'll likely pass) and Quinnipiac and Robert Morris in the Northeast. 


Tonight we'll be playing Quinnipiac on the ML for 1 unit at -150.  If you want to read more about our futures strategy by playing game by game, you can read here.  We did this last night with Jacksonville St. and got a win giving us two total units tonight.  Tonight they're -120 against Morehead St.  We'll be rolling over both of our units tonight.  If the Gamecocks can pull of a win tonight we'll have some flexibility tomorrow.


2★
Jacksonville St. -120


1★
Quinnipiac -150