NFL Week 4

Today we start using our models for the NFL.  Last year we were pretty successful after digging a hole in the first 3 weeks.  We're hoping for more of the same this year, with a much smaller hole.

3 units

SF -4

2 units

NE -4

CHI +3.5

CFB Week 4

We tweeted a few out to star the week, but here's the full slate.  We may add a few tomorrow.


3 Units

Baylor +11
Penn St. +1
Idaho +27.5
Tx Tech -2.5
W. KY -2.5
TCU -15
MS +30
SDSU +17

2 Units
Baylor/WV under 83
Buffalo +17
Indiana +11
Arkansas/Texas AM under 60.5
Duke/Wake under 61
Buffalo/UConn under 44
Ball St. / Kent St. under 55
IN/NW over 59
N. Texas -7
FSU/USF under 54
Toledo +1.5
MTSU/GT under 62.5
FIU/LA LAF under 54.5
UNVL +21
Lville/S. Miss under 49
TX/OK St. under 65
UTSA/NM under 55
MS/AL under 53.5
SDSU/Fresno under 61

9/27 MLB

Just missed a clean sweep yesterday of both the late night's on 9/25 and the overnights for 9/26, but we'll take 6-1 post all at plus money.  Below is 9/27 with some afternoon delight.

PIT +180
OAK +190
AZ +105

Late Night MLB, NFL Recap and 9/26 Overnights

Week 3 in the NFL wasn't precisely what we were looking for.  We went 4-5 and lost 1.5 units.  For the year we're now 15-18 and down 4.1 units.  Below we have some last night MLB and overnights for tomorrow.

9/25

SD +110
AZ +145

9/26 Overnights

LAD +105
WA +125
MIL +120
OAK +125
AZ +140

Week 4 CFB/MLB Recap and MNF

Not the start we were hoping for with the model in CFB.  We went 11-11 on spreads giving back 2.5 units, 5-8 on totals losing 5.6 units.  For the year in CFB we're now 19-24 and down 11.1 units.  A rough week in MLB as well.  We went 6-12 losing 9.8 units.  For the year we're now 261-293 and down 2.2 units.  We have one MNF position and one MLB position below.

MNF

SEA +3 (posted earlier)
SEA/GB under 46

MLB

Oak +160

NFL Week 3 and MLB 9/23

Here's what we have for the NFL and one over night in MLB.  If you want to know our reasoning just look at the teams we bet and how they match up with our reasoning the last two weeks here and here.

1 unit

SEA +3
CLE +3
STL +9
NYJ -1
KC +9
IN -3
BAL -1.5
JAX/IN over 43

(We'll be looking at a GB/SEA under on MNF)

CFB Week 3 Adds and MLB

We're adding the following to our card in CFB and then our regular card in MLB:

3 units
E. Carolina +14.5
Cal +15

2 units

UConn/W. MI under 44
MO +10
Vandy +14.5
MI +6
Nevada -7
AF/UNLV under 55

MLB (2 units)

OAK +140
CHW +160
ATL +110

CFB Week 3

Tonight we debut our CFB spots based on the model.  For those who weren't with us last year, we take various averages of a teams performance over the last 3 weeks and project a game score.  Depending on how different it is from the actual spread and total we then play it.  Most are 2 unit positions, some are 3.  As always, when playing a dog, don't forget to through a bit on the ML.

3 units
E. MI +32
E. MI / MI ST. under 48.
Temple +7
Memphis +24
Memphis/Duke under 62
Clemson +14.5
Louisiana Tech +3
East Carolina and Cal could make this group, but we think those lines may move in our favor.

2 units

C. MI +15
C. MI / Iowa under 49
UAB +37
UMass +25
VA +18
BG +17.5
FAU/AL over 57
S. AL +34
UT St. -12.5
Fresno +6.5
Akron +35
Akron/TN under 65
Syracuse -1
UT +7
Nevada/Hawaii under 62.5

Week 2 Football Recap 9/20 Overnights

A light week for us in CFB (this will change with the model debuting), but we only had two positions.  We went 1-2, and lost 1.2 units.  For the year we're now 3-5 and down 2.5 units for -28.41% return (we'll argue a small sample).  In the NFL we went 5-4 and picked up a 1/2 unit.  For the year we're now 11-10 and up 0.66 units, for a 2.72% return.

Below are our overnights for 9/20

OAK +135
SD +115
NYM +115
CHW +105
TX +115

MLB 9/19

A bunch of rainouts give us a slightly larger card then normal:

GM1 LAD +135
PIT +135
SD +123
NYM +120

9/18 Overnights and MLB Recap

We had a slightly profitable week in MLB.  We went 11-11 and picked up 3.3u.  For the year we're now 256-281 up 9.81 units for 0.98% return.  Below are the overnights we have for 9/18.

LAD +135
PHI +110
SD +145
TX +130

CFB Week 3

Our last week before we roll the models out.  Just 3 one unit positions, with two moving from where we got the best number last night and earlier in the week.

Ohio St. -16.5 (released earlier)
Listening to Urban Meyer this week, it sounds like he really wants to push the offense to new heights. He spoke about being Top 5 in the Big Ten isnt good enough,and being Top 20 in the country isnt good enough. He expects their offense to be Top 5 in the country. Right now their 14th in points, 14th in rushing and 87th in passing. While we think Meyer wants to see the passing game get better they have a fairly weak defense especially against the run coming into town. Cal has given up 31 points to S. Utah and Nevada - one has to think the Buckeyes have a solid 40+ in them. Even though Meyer would like to see them pass more, one would think the Bucks could run wild. We're fairly confident the defense can take care of things. As always dont forget you have W. Coast team coming east for 12pm start. This combined with the fact Meyer has historically dominated out of conference opponents, we'll be making a pick for the Bucks and backing it with our own cash this week.

Wisconsin -13 (released earlier) - This is pretty simple.  Huge let down spot for UT St. and a western team coming east.

NW -3 - We think NW has performed very well the last two weeks and think Pat Fitzgerald will keep that going this week.

MLB 9/15 Overnights

Here's what we're grabbing for tomorrow on the bases.  We'll put out a few grabs of CFB on Twitter before posting a full card tomorrow.

WA +120

NYM +145

STL +105

NFL Week 2

We'll keep a similar approach to last week's for Week 2.

We'll continue to fade the Super Bowl runner up (NE) by playing AZ +13.5. We'll continue to play ON teams that should experience a regression up by playing KC +3.5, and IN (waiting to see if it can get driven to 3).  We'll also fade teams where an offensive regression is expected by playing CHI in tomorrow's Thurs. night game.  Sadly, we missed +6 today and will wait to see if it can get driven back up through out the day tomorrow.  We'll be ignoring the CAR/NO game as its two teams we would look to fade playing each other.

Like last year we'll play the over of the teams expected to increase their output by playing KC/BUF over 44.5 and IN/MN over 44.5.  We'll play the unders on the teams expected to regress a bit by playing GB/CHI under and CAR/NO under.  With all the over last week along with the talk of it being an "offensive league" we'll wait to see if these numbers get driven up and confirm on game day.

Two spots we like outside of this are TB +7.5 and BAL, which we'll be waiting on.

To summarize here's what we're on with all being 1 unit outside of anything noted.

AZ +13.5
KC +3.5
TB +7.5
IN (waiting) - 2 units
CHI (waiting)
BAL (waiting)

KC/BUF over 44.5
IN/MN over 44.5
GB/CHI under (waiting)
CAR/NO under (waiting)

9/12 Overnights

Overnights for tomorrow.

SD +125
PIT +120
LAD +115
OAK +115

One NFL line we grabbed was KC +3.5.  This is a game we were targeting and wanted to be on the right side of 3.5.

Week 1 Football and MLB Recap

We made it through our first weekend of football.  Sadly, it hasn't come out on the positive side of the ledger, but we're off to a much better start than we did last year (where we went 2-7 and lost 6.2 units, but still finished the season profitably).

We treaded very lightly with the college kids going only playing 2 positions which we missed on.  For the year we're now 2-3, down 1.3 units for a -23.64% return.  On the professional side we went a juicy 6-6.  We lost 0.75 units for a 5.62% return.

After a very hot run in MLB has cooled a bit in the last 5 days.  Since our last recap we've gone 6-9, lost 2.9 units.  For the year we're now 245-270, up 6.5 units for 0.68% return.

9/10 MLB

We'll wrap up football and baseball later today. Until then here's what we have on the bases today:

MIL +100
SD +105
OAK +145

We may add Detroit as well, depending on if the price rises.

9/9/2012

First football Sunday is tomorrow, but here's what we have for MLB.

NYM +115
MIL +120
DET +135

9/8 MLB Overnights

Here's what we have on the bases - very likely to have a light card tomorrow in football until we get the model going in Week 4.

LAD +145
MIL +120
SD +125

9/7 MLB

Getting close to the start of the first games, but here's tonight MLB>

ATL +110
TEX +100
MIL +125
AZ +110

We'll and LAD if we can get +105

Week 1 NFL

As we've stated with CFB, we won't have any model plays until Week 4.  We also do some of our own handicapping and are reliant upon that in the first three weeks.  We usually try and take a contrarian approach to the NFL with a few exceptions.  We've used some initial thoughts and then done some backtesting to arrive at these positions.  Note all positions are 1 unit.

Defending Super Bowl Champs
Defending Super Bowl Champions are 12-0 straight up and 8-2-2 ATS since 1999.  Our first position is NYG -3.5

Now begins what are mostly contrarian positions.  Since most of the information we have is based on last year we will look to fade good teams (as they're overvalued) and bet against teams that were bad (as they're undervalued).

Super Bowl Runner-Up
We found this position (and the above) while testing the Super Bowl participants the year before.  We found that the SB Runner-Ups are 0-12 ATS and 3-9 SU since 1999.  Therefore we'll be playing TEN +6.5

10 Win Swing Team
Joe Fortenbaugh (@JoeFortenbaugh) wrote a very interesting article about teams that have made a "jump" and how they often comeback to earth the next year.  We did some back testing and found that fading these teams in Week 1 is profitable.  Therefore we will be playing STL and MIA.  We're actually going to wait on these two as we expect the line to be driven up closer to kick-off.  Technically, playing on GB would fall into this, however there's another approach that would indicate to play against GB and therefore are passing on this game.

Big Offensive Swing
Again Joe Fortenbaugh (@JoeFortenbaugh) wrote another very interesting article about teams that have a big swing in offenses up or down and how they often correct themselves in the next year.  We decided to test these teams both against the spread and there totals.  We found that fading teams that experienced a big jump in the past year (CAR, GB, NO) and betting on teams that experienced a big decline (IND, KC) is profitable.  Additionally, playing UNDER teams that had a big jump and are expected to come back down (CAR, GB, NO) and playing OVER on teams that declined and are expected to bounce back (IN, KC) to be profitable.  Therefore, we're playing the following TB +3 -130, WA, KC +3 -120, TB/CAR under 47, SF/GB under 45, WA/NO under 50, ATL/KC over 41.5, IND/CHI over 43.

Above is what and why we'll be playing Week 1.  Below is a recap to help summarize.

NYG -3.5
TEN +6.5
TB +3 -130
KC +3 -120
WA (waiting)
STL (waiting)
MIA (waiting)
TB/CAR under 47
SF/GB under 45
WA/NO under 50
ATL/KC over 41.5
IND/CHI over 43

MLB and Week 0 Football Recap

We've been very successful since our last recap on both the bases and the gridiron.  Since the last recap on the bases we went 21-13 and pick up 11.3 units. For the year on the bases we're now 239-261 and up 9.5 units for a 1.0% return.

We treaded lightly in our first week of college football with only 3 positions.  Those spots went 2-1 and we picked up 0.9 units for a very early 27.27% return.

9/4 Overnights

Overnights for tomorrow 9/4.

PHI +165
NYM +140
OAK +110

9/3 MLB

Still no football for us again till Week 1.  We'll recap both baseball and football tomorrow.  In the meantime we have a few on the bases today:

2 Units

NYM +150

SD +150

1 unit

MIL -135

MLB 9/2

A solid football start yesterday and ok on the base paths.  Here's baseball for Sept. 2nd.

2 units

TX -1.5 +105
NYM +130
SD +100

1 unit

TX 1st 5 -155
CLE TT u3.5 -110

MLB 9/1

Profitable night on the bases last night, here's what we have tonight.

PHI +105
STL +105
NYM +135
PIT +120
SD +110
AZ +130
BOS +150