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Wednesday, September 12, 2012

NFL Week 2

We'll keep a similar approach to last week's for Week 2.

We'll continue to fade the Super Bowl runner up (NE) by playing AZ +13.5. We'll continue to play ON teams that should experience a regression up by playing KC +3.5, and IN (waiting to see if it can get driven to 3).  We'll also fade teams where an offensive regression is expected by playing CHI in tomorrow's Thurs. night game.  Sadly, we missed +6 today and will wait to see if it can get driven back up through out the day tomorrow.  We'll be ignoring the CAR/NO game as its two teams we would look to fade playing each other.

Like last year we'll play the over of the teams expected to increase their output by playing KC/BUF over 44.5 and IN/MN over 44.5.  We'll play the unders on the teams expected to regress a bit by playing GB/CHI under and CAR/NO under.  With all the over last week along with the talk of it being an "offensive league" we'll wait to see if these numbers get driven up and confirm on game day.

Two spots we like outside of this are TB +7.5 and BAL, which we'll be waiting on.

To summarize here's what we're on with all being 1 unit outside of anything noted.

AZ +13.5
KC +3.5
TB +7.5
IN (waiting) - 2 units
CHI (waiting)
BAL (waiting)

KC/BUF over 44.5
IN/MN over 44.5
GB/CHI under (waiting)
CAR/NO under (waiting)

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