Panic In The Markets - Don't Overreact To The First Game

We move on to Week 1 of the football season and our college football card for this weekend.  We feel the key here is not overreacting to something you saw last week. 

The best comparison we can make to an overreaction to a team’s second game is the overreaction in the market place to what the Down Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 or other stock indexes may do in a certain day.  How often (if you follow financial news) have you seen huge reaction to a large drop in an index in one day?  Alarmist reporting, world coming to the end scenario articles, etc. never seem to play out.  If you’re like most investors with retirement savings in a 401K or a college fund for junior, these ebbs and flows really shouldn’t affect you.  If they do, you should be putting your savings in a different asset class – high daily, weekly, or monthly volatility really only effects short-term investors. 

We here at The Sports Market aren’t that type of sports investor.  We attempt to do our fundamentals and grind out a profitable return over the long haul.  You won’t see us overreact to one bad day or week here (it’s called variance), nor will you see us quote our record over the last 7 or 10 plays, or offer any 500★ stone cold locks to rally your bankroll.  We grind our return out in a conservative approach that aims to win over a season, a year and hopefully into the forseeable future.   

With that being said, we won’t be overreacting and steaming Stanford and Michigan with our full bankrolls this week.  You could argue we’re doing this with our Wisconsin position, however we feel this has more to do with travel, the quarterback situation and a running-back injury to Oregon St., rather than just thinking “Oregon St. got beat by Sacramento St.” 

After cashing in on Oklahoma St. last night we’ve rounded out the rest of our card.  The first two we tweeted out earlier in the week and now provide a full explanation along with a few other positions.

1★ Positions:

Wisconsin -21 vs. Oregon St.: We tweeted this play out earlier in the week and it has subsequently dropped.  This could be the square side here, but we like the Badgers.  Their offense was spectacular last weekend.  Their defense did leave a bit to be desired.  Oregon St will be travelling across the country to meet the Badgers.  They lost last week at home to Sacramento St. and although we don’t expect performances that poor to continue, it’s a tall order to bounce back at Camp Randall in a morning game for a West Coast team. 

You could also argue Oregon St. is in a bit of disarray.  Not only did they lose to Sac St. last week, but they’re looking to rebound amid a quarterback controversy.  Starter Ryan Katz who struggled greatly last week (11/22 – 87yds – 0 TD – 1 INT) will split time with red-shirt freshman Sean Mannion.  The Beavers relied heavily on the one successful part of their offense last week, the running game.  Sadly, leading rusher Malcolm Agnew is out with a bad hamstring.  Oregon St. going cross country, amidst turmoil and without the one reliable part of their offense will prevent them from staying with this potent Badger offense.

Utah +9 @ Southern Califonria: This line is down to 8.5 in some places after opening at 10.5.  Southern California looked less than spectacular last week in staving off a Minnesota team that will be near the basement of the Big 10 this year.  Although they out gained the Gophers, USC had less yards per pass attempt and yards per rush than Minnesota.  We think Utah will pose a more difficult challenge for the Trojans.  The Utes were very successful on the ground, while struggling a bit through the air.  You have to think Norm Chow returning to USC will make the Utes very motivated.  This line feels almost a TD too high for us.  Had we been able to get on the other side of 10, we likely would have upgraded this to a 2 ★ position.

UNLV +14 @ Washington St.:  UNLV showed us something last weekend.  They moved the ball a bit against Wisconsin in a tough environment.  Washington St.’s environment won’t be nearly as difficult, nor will their offense.  Washington St. has been one of the worse teams for the better part of the last 5 years.  While we know you can probably add UNLV to that category as well, how either team would be a 14 point favorite is beyond us.  Washington St. has won 5 games in the past 3 years, and hasn’t been a favorite against an FBS school since 2007.  Until they prove they can beat anyone on a regular basis, let alone win by double digits – we’ll take the points.

Brigham Young +7 @ Texas: BYU Quarterback Jake Heaps came on at the end of last year for the Cougars as they won 4 of their last 5 and blew UTEP out in their Bowl Game.  In addition to having Heaps back, they also return 4 starters on their offensive line and their running back.  On the opposite side of the ball their defensive line dominated Ole Miss allowing only 64 yards rushing.  As Texas installs a new offense we see these teams as fairly equal and think taking the points is a good position.  

IPOs and Week Zero Football (Week 1 CFB)

An IPO (Initial Public Offering) is a very exciting and anxious time for a business. While you have a general idea of what the company is worth and how it is expected to perform in the future,   with no trading history it is impossible to pinpoint exactly what will happen when the market gets a hold of it.

Here at The Sports Market we feel this is similar to Week 1 wagering.  Most of our wagering is based on models incorporating how a team has performed over the past three or four weeks and projects a score and total.  We then back test over a 3-5 years period how our model has done and then take a position.  In Week 1, like an IPO, we don’t have a history to look at.  We clearly have a lot of information on each team, such as who is returning and coming in, who is coaching, how they performed last year, etc.  It’s like we can see what a company did privately before its IPO, but don’t know how its valuation will react in the open market.

If you visit us throughout the year, you will start seeing our model based picks in Week 4.  Most of these they will be 2 unit or 2★ plays and rarely if ever vary.  Some people prefer to vary their bet, and some people prefer to bet              flat, and we prefer the ladder option in regards to our models. This is because based on our back testing, we are playing a discrepancy our model has found that equates to a profitable percentage throughout the year that doesn’t vary from game to game.

We also incorporate a bit of our own handicapping.  We are more likely to vary the units on this as we feel different positions have different strengths.  Most of the positions will be 1 unit or 1★ and from time to time upgrade them based on market discrepancies or other information we feel warrants an upgrade.

With all that being said you’ll find our Week 1 thoughts below.  We have approached almost all of these as 1★ plays.  Week 1, like an IPO, can have high variance.  An IPO can take off and then quickly crash.  Therefore, we’ve treaded lightly on the following positions. (note: some lines have moved since we’ve placed our bets.  If you can’t find the same number, then tough shit)

Also, follow us on Twitter @TheSportsMarket we'll likely post any 2nd half plays, hedges or middles here as its easier than the blog.

1★ Plays:

Wisconsin -32.5 vs. UNLV (We would still play this at the widely available -35):  UNLV has one of the worst teams in the FBS.  The players Wisconsin has are head and shoulders above UNLV, whose defense returns no starting LBs and only 2 on the Defensive Line from a defense that was one of the worst in the NCAA last year.  Wisconsin should run all over this team. Wisconsin may also look to show off Russell Wilson in this game for the home crowd who hasn’t seen him.  Combine that with the big play ability of Wisconsin’s running backs and Wisconsin will likely score 50+, and I don’t see UNLV getting to double digits.

Akron +34 @ Ohio St.  Although Akron is nowhere close to the talent level of Ohio St. (even with the suspensions), we believe there has been too much turmoil in Columbus to start the season.  Listing both Senior Joe Bauserman and True Freshman Braxton Miller as 1^st on the depth chart shows that new coach Luke Fickell is nervous about both options.  Bauserman has never been impressive in his little play for the Buckeyes.  Miller at one point said, "I've got most of the running plays down pat, the passing plays I get confused sometimes on the routes because there's a lot of them. ... It'll probably take years to get everything down pat."  The QB situation certainly makes us nervous.

 In the past, when Ohio St. was breaking in a young or new QB, they always had a great defense and running game to rely on. For this game, they will be missing their starting RBs from last year due to suspension (Herron) and graduation (Saine).  They’ll also be missing a starting Offensive Lineman and their best WR (which will only matter if there is even a QB capable of throwing to him). Their great defense from last year lost a lot to graduation.  Ohio St’s talent gap will easily allow them to win this game, but with all things considered, 34 points seems about a TD too high.

James Madison +18 @ North Carolina. James Madison returns 18 starters from last year.  Yes, they only went 6-5, however they clearly showed they can get up for a game against the big boys after beating Virginia Tech last year and taking Maryland to OT in ‘09.  Also, combine that with North Carolina’s the dismissal of Butch Davis and overall turmoil the last two years, and this seems like a good spot to take the points.

South Florida +10 @ Notre Dame.  We’re not the type of handicapper who likes to play trends.  However, from time to time something will present itself that we like to take advantage of.  If you read our first blog, The Notre Dame Discrepency (despite being way off in the expected spread for this game – it’s not like you could have bet it), you know we think the evidence supports that Notre Dame is often overrated and would look at spots to fade them.  This we feel is one of them.  There’s a few interesting trends that we’ve noticed. 

1)      Notre Dame is typically a slow starter: In the last five years ND is 4-11 against the spread.  They've never had a profitable first three weeks in the time period.

2)      Notre Dame’s lines are inflated especially when they’re expected to be much better than their opponent.  Going back to 2006, ND is 4-10-1 against the spread as a double digit favorite.  In 2006 they went 3-3 under this situation, since then they’ve fallen off even more as a double digit favorite going 1-7-1.

3)      The public perception inflates Notre Dame’s home games since they are nationally televised on NBC.  People who like or are alumni of ND want to bet them when they can watch them on TV, driving the line up.  The Irish are 16-34 against the spread at home since 2003.