CFB Week 9

4 Units

Virginia +10.5

3 Units

Tulsa +9

Missouri +17.5

W. MI -1

Akron +20

Nebraska -2

Texas St. +26.5

AZ St./OR St under 56

2 Units

GT -8

Texas AM -7

N. Mex St. +22.5

Cuse/Cincy under 57.5

Temple/Lville under 51

MI/MN over 46.5

TX AM/MS St over 60

Memphis +20

KS +17

FIU/S. AL under 52

Neb/MSU under 44.5

CO St +7.5

NM/UNLV under 53.5

UConn +8

SMU +10

Ok St./KU over 66

SDSU +15

AZ St. +3.5

Week 8 CFB

3 units
Texas Tech +7.5
Boise St. -15.5
E. MI +15
Duke +27
Ohio St. +1

2 units
NC St. +7.5
MS/Arkansas over 64.5
Memphis +21.5
Colorado +47
Akron +7.5
TCU +7
Ohio _7
TCU/OK St. under 64
Texas Tech/Kansas St. over 60.5
Boise St / WY over 51.5
Baylor +3
S. AL +22.5
S. AL /La Monroe under 54
Texas AM/Auburn under 53.5
UNLV +18.5
UCF -1.5
UCF/Marshall under 68
ND/Oklahoma over 47.5

CFB Week 7

A nice start to the week picking up both Seattle and Oregon.  Here's what CFB looks like, and dont forget a sprinkle on the ML with the dogs.

3 Units
PD +18
Nebraska -6.5
IN +3
UNLV +28
S. CAR +3.5
Rice +21
Pit/Buffalo u54.5

2 units
MN +17
Iowa St. +14
FIU +6.5
SJSU -11.5
Stanford -2.5
N. Mexico St. +31
UNLV/Boise u44
Idaho +30.5
Idaho/LT u72.5
FAU +4.5
IN/Navy under 61
Colorado +40.5
MTSU +19
KS +35
Marshall +4
Marsh/S. Miss over 65
FSU/Miami over 57
WA +7.5
Utah +10
SDSU/NV under 69.5

Week 6 NFL

Here's what we have this week.  There's two we'll be looking for later in the week to see if we can get a better number.  Those are the Jets, Eagles, and Texans.  We won't lie and say the Bengals game doesn't makes us a nervous, but we've learned to trust our numbers.  Just try and get the best of the number, and we're confident our numbers will take care of the rest. The full card:

4 units
Cincinnati -1

3 units
Dallas +3.5

2 units
Seattle +3.5
SF -6.5
Denver +1
Buffalo +4.5

CFB Week 6

A rough one last week, we may have to look at that in the future.  Had a really bad Week 5 last year as well and then rallied from there.  Perhaps we need a bit more data to make the models run better.  In any case, here's what we have in Week 6.

3 Units
Buffalo +14.5
Oregon St. +5.5
Stanford +7
Fresno +7.5
Air Force/Wyoming under 61.5

2 Units
Lville -2.5
cuse +7.5
Kent/Army over 57.5
SMU -17.5
Toledo/E. MI under 57.5
W. MI +3
MD/VA over 45
UTSA/Rice over 57.5
IL +25
BC +28.5
UT ST. +3
MEmphis/E. Carolina under 50.5
FAU/La Monroe under 56
FAU +24
FL -9
MTSU/FIU under 58
S. AL +21
S. AL/Ark St. over 52
AF -3
USC/WA over 54.5
S. Miss +17
TN +3
NM/Hawaii under 52

NFL Week 5

Week 5 NFL below, been having more success here than with the college kids.  Started the same way last year, but we got CFB corrected by year end.

3 Units
Buffalo +10
NO -3

2 Units
GB -6.5
Miami +3.5
PHI +3.5
Houston -8

We're waiting on Denver to see if it hits 7, and may add an additional unit to Houston before kickoff tomorrow.

CFB Week 5

Here's what we have for Week 5, including our biggest play of the year.

4 units
Illinois +14
NW +2.5

3 units
UMass +17
Hawaii +21.5


2 units
Arkansas +8
Buffalo +14.5
Michigan St. -15
KS +24.5
UConn +7
USF -3.5
Kent/E. MI under 48.5
BG -4
C. MI +11.5
LSU -2.5
OK -4.5
Tulsa -5
MI -3
VA/Duke under 56
AZ +9
MI/PD under 58.5
BC/Army under 57
WA St. /OR ST under 58.5
GA +1.5

N. TX +11.5
UNLV/LT under 70
GA/SC under 53.5
Fresno/CO St. under 59.5
N. Mexico St. +10

CFB Recap and MLB for 10/1

We're holding off on our typical MLB recap as the season will finish up Wed. and we can recap the whole season there.  A very very middling week as we hopped in the juicer for CFB.  We went a solid 9-9 sides and 7-7 on totals and dropped 2.5u.  For the year we're now 35-40 and down 13.2u.  Our MLB positions are below:

PHI +125
NYM +140
SD +145
TEX +135

We may look to add the Giants as well.

NFL Week 4

Today we start using our models for the NFL.  Last year we were pretty successful after digging a hole in the first 3 weeks.  We're hoping for more of the same this year, with a much smaller hole.

3 units

SF -4

2 units

NE -4

CHI +3.5

CFB Week 4

We tweeted a few out to star the week, but here's the full slate.  We may add a few tomorrow.


3 Units

Baylor +11
Penn St. +1
Idaho +27.5
Tx Tech -2.5
W. KY -2.5
TCU -15
MS +30
SDSU +17

2 Units
Baylor/WV under 83
Buffalo +17
Indiana +11
Arkansas/Texas AM under 60.5
Duke/Wake under 61
Buffalo/UConn under 44
Ball St. / Kent St. under 55
IN/NW over 59
N. Texas -7
FSU/USF under 54
Toledo +1.5
MTSU/GT under 62.5
FIU/LA LAF under 54.5
UNVL +21
Lville/S. Miss under 49
TX/OK St. under 65
UTSA/NM under 55
MS/AL under 53.5
SDSU/Fresno under 61

9/27 MLB

Just missed a clean sweep yesterday of both the late night's on 9/25 and the overnights for 9/26, but we'll take 6-1 post all at plus money.  Below is 9/27 with some afternoon delight.

PIT +180
OAK +190
AZ +105

Late Night MLB, NFL Recap and 9/26 Overnights

Week 3 in the NFL wasn't precisely what we were looking for.  We went 4-5 and lost 1.5 units.  For the year we're now 15-18 and down 4.1 units.  Below we have some last night MLB and overnights for tomorrow.

9/25

SD +110
AZ +145

9/26 Overnights

LAD +105
WA +125
MIL +120
OAK +125
AZ +140

Week 4 CFB/MLB Recap and MNF

Not the start we were hoping for with the model in CFB.  We went 11-11 on spreads giving back 2.5 units, 5-8 on totals losing 5.6 units.  For the year in CFB we're now 19-24 and down 11.1 units.  A rough week in MLB as well.  We went 6-12 losing 9.8 units.  For the year we're now 261-293 and down 2.2 units.  We have one MNF position and one MLB position below.

MNF

SEA +3 (posted earlier)
SEA/GB under 46

MLB

Oak +160

NFL Week 3 and MLB 9/23

Here's what we have for the NFL and one over night in MLB.  If you want to know our reasoning just look at the teams we bet and how they match up with our reasoning the last two weeks here and here.

1 unit

SEA +3
CLE +3
STL +9
NYJ -1
KC +9
IN -3
BAL -1.5
JAX/IN over 43

(We'll be looking at a GB/SEA under on MNF)

CFB Week 3 Adds and MLB

We're adding the following to our card in CFB and then our regular card in MLB:

3 units
E. Carolina +14.5
Cal +15

2 units

UConn/W. MI under 44
MO +10
Vandy +14.5
MI +6
Nevada -7
AF/UNLV under 55

MLB (2 units)

OAK +140
CHW +160
ATL +110

CFB Week 3

Tonight we debut our CFB spots based on the model.  For those who weren't with us last year, we take various averages of a teams performance over the last 3 weeks and project a game score.  Depending on how different it is from the actual spread and total we then play it.  Most are 2 unit positions, some are 3.  As always, when playing a dog, don't forget to through a bit on the ML.

3 units
E. MI +32
E. MI / MI ST. under 48.
Temple +7
Memphis +24
Memphis/Duke under 62
Clemson +14.5
Louisiana Tech +3
East Carolina and Cal could make this group, but we think those lines may move in our favor.

2 units

C. MI +15
C. MI / Iowa under 49
UAB +37
UMass +25
VA +18
BG +17.5
FAU/AL over 57
S. AL +34
UT St. -12.5
Fresno +6.5
Akron +35
Akron/TN under 65
Syracuse -1
UT +7
Nevada/Hawaii under 62.5

Week 2 Football Recap 9/20 Overnights

A light week for us in CFB (this will change with the model debuting), but we only had two positions.  We went 1-2, and lost 1.2 units.  For the year we're now 3-5 and down 2.5 units for -28.41% return (we'll argue a small sample).  In the NFL we went 5-4 and picked up a 1/2 unit.  For the year we're now 11-10 and up 0.66 units, for a 2.72% return.

Below are our overnights for 9/20

OAK +135
SD +115
NYM +115
CHW +105
TX +115

MLB 9/19

A bunch of rainouts give us a slightly larger card then normal:

GM1 LAD +135
PIT +135
SD +123
NYM +120

9/18 Overnights and MLB Recap

We had a slightly profitable week in MLB.  We went 11-11 and picked up 3.3u.  For the year we're now 256-281 up 9.81 units for 0.98% return.  Below are the overnights we have for 9/18.

LAD +135
PHI +110
SD +145
TX +130

CFB Week 3

Our last week before we roll the models out.  Just 3 one unit positions, with two moving from where we got the best number last night and earlier in the week.

Ohio St. -16.5 (released earlier)
Listening to Urban Meyer this week, it sounds like he really wants to push the offense to new heights. He spoke about being Top 5 in the Big Ten isnt good enough,and being Top 20 in the country isnt good enough. He expects their offense to be Top 5 in the country. Right now their 14th in points, 14th in rushing and 87th in passing. While we think Meyer wants to see the passing game get better they have a fairly weak defense especially against the run coming into town. Cal has given up 31 points to S. Utah and Nevada - one has to think the Buckeyes have a solid 40+ in them. Even though Meyer would like to see them pass more, one would think the Bucks could run wild. We're fairly confident the defense can take care of things. As always dont forget you have W. Coast team coming east for 12pm start. This combined with the fact Meyer has historically dominated out of conference opponents, we'll be making a pick for the Bucks and backing it with our own cash this week.

Wisconsin -13 (released earlier) - This is pretty simple.  Huge let down spot for UT St. and a western team coming east.

NW -3 - We think NW has performed very well the last two weeks and think Pat Fitzgerald will keep that going this week.

MLB 9/15 Overnights

Here's what we're grabbing for tomorrow on the bases.  We'll put out a few grabs of CFB on Twitter before posting a full card tomorrow.

WA +120

NYM +145

STL +105

NFL Week 2

We'll keep a similar approach to last week's for Week 2.

We'll continue to fade the Super Bowl runner up (NE) by playing AZ +13.5. We'll continue to play ON teams that should experience a regression up by playing KC +3.5, and IN (waiting to see if it can get driven to 3).  We'll also fade teams where an offensive regression is expected by playing CHI in tomorrow's Thurs. night game.  Sadly, we missed +6 today and will wait to see if it can get driven back up through out the day tomorrow.  We'll be ignoring the CAR/NO game as its two teams we would look to fade playing each other.

Like last year we'll play the over of the teams expected to increase their output by playing KC/BUF over 44.5 and IN/MN over 44.5.  We'll play the unders on the teams expected to regress a bit by playing GB/CHI under and CAR/NO under.  With all the over last week along with the talk of it being an "offensive league" we'll wait to see if these numbers get driven up and confirm on game day.

Two spots we like outside of this are TB +7.5 and BAL, which we'll be waiting on.

To summarize here's what we're on with all being 1 unit outside of anything noted.

AZ +13.5
KC +3.5
TB +7.5
IN (waiting) - 2 units
CHI (waiting)
BAL (waiting)

KC/BUF over 44.5
IN/MN over 44.5
GB/CHI under (waiting)
CAR/NO under (waiting)

9/12 Overnights

Overnights for tomorrow.

SD +125
PIT +120
LAD +115
OAK +115

One NFL line we grabbed was KC +3.5.  This is a game we were targeting and wanted to be on the right side of 3.5.

Week 1 Football and MLB Recap

We made it through our first weekend of football.  Sadly, it hasn't come out on the positive side of the ledger, but we're off to a much better start than we did last year (where we went 2-7 and lost 6.2 units, but still finished the season profitably).

We treaded very lightly with the college kids going only playing 2 positions which we missed on.  For the year we're now 2-3, down 1.3 units for a -23.64% return.  On the professional side we went a juicy 6-6.  We lost 0.75 units for a 5.62% return.

After a very hot run in MLB has cooled a bit in the last 5 days.  Since our last recap we've gone 6-9, lost 2.9 units.  For the year we're now 245-270, up 6.5 units for 0.68% return.

9/10 MLB

We'll wrap up football and baseball later today. Until then here's what we have on the bases today:

MIL +100
SD +105
OAK +145

We may add Detroit as well, depending on if the price rises.

9/9/2012

First football Sunday is tomorrow, but here's what we have for MLB.

NYM +115
MIL +120
DET +135

9/8 MLB Overnights

Here's what we have on the bases - very likely to have a light card tomorrow in football until we get the model going in Week 4.

LAD +145
MIL +120
SD +125

9/7 MLB

Getting close to the start of the first games, but here's tonight MLB>

ATL +110
TEX +100
MIL +125
AZ +110

We'll and LAD if we can get +105

Week 1 NFL

As we've stated with CFB, we won't have any model plays until Week 4.  We also do some of our own handicapping and are reliant upon that in the first three weeks.  We usually try and take a contrarian approach to the NFL with a few exceptions.  We've used some initial thoughts and then done some backtesting to arrive at these positions.  Note all positions are 1 unit.

Defending Super Bowl Champs
Defending Super Bowl Champions are 12-0 straight up and 8-2-2 ATS since 1999.  Our first position is NYG -3.5

Now begins what are mostly contrarian positions.  Since most of the information we have is based on last year we will look to fade good teams (as they're overvalued) and bet against teams that were bad (as they're undervalued).

Super Bowl Runner-Up
We found this position (and the above) while testing the Super Bowl participants the year before.  We found that the SB Runner-Ups are 0-12 ATS and 3-9 SU since 1999.  Therefore we'll be playing TEN +6.5

10 Win Swing Team
Joe Fortenbaugh (@JoeFortenbaugh) wrote a very interesting article about teams that have made a "jump" and how they often comeback to earth the next year.  We did some back testing and found that fading these teams in Week 1 is profitable.  Therefore we will be playing STL and MIA.  We're actually going to wait on these two as we expect the line to be driven up closer to kick-off.  Technically, playing on GB would fall into this, however there's another approach that would indicate to play against GB and therefore are passing on this game.

Big Offensive Swing
Again Joe Fortenbaugh (@JoeFortenbaugh) wrote another very interesting article about teams that have a big swing in offenses up or down and how they often correct themselves in the next year.  We decided to test these teams both against the spread and there totals.  We found that fading teams that experienced a big jump in the past year (CAR, GB, NO) and betting on teams that experienced a big decline (IND, KC) is profitable.  Additionally, playing UNDER teams that had a big jump and are expected to come back down (CAR, GB, NO) and playing OVER on teams that declined and are expected to bounce back (IN, KC) to be profitable.  Therefore, we're playing the following TB +3 -130, WA, KC +3 -120, TB/CAR under 47, SF/GB under 45, WA/NO under 50, ATL/KC over 41.5, IND/CHI over 43.

Above is what and why we'll be playing Week 1.  Below is a recap to help summarize.

NYG -3.5
TEN +6.5
TB +3 -130
KC +3 -120
WA (waiting)
STL (waiting)
MIA (waiting)
TB/CAR under 47
SF/GB under 45
WA/NO under 50
ATL/KC over 41.5
IND/CHI over 43

MLB and Week 0 Football Recap

We've been very successful since our last recap on both the bases and the gridiron.  Since the last recap on the bases we went 21-13 and pick up 11.3 units. For the year on the bases we're now 239-261 and up 9.5 units for a 1.0% return.

We treaded lightly in our first week of college football with only 3 positions.  Those spots went 2-1 and we picked up 0.9 units for a very early 27.27% return.

9/4 Overnights

Overnights for tomorrow 9/4.

PHI +165
NYM +140
OAK +110

9/3 MLB

Still no football for us again till Week 1.  We'll recap both baseball and football tomorrow.  In the meantime we have a few on the bases today:

2 Units

NYM +150

SD +150

1 unit

MIL -135

MLB 9/2

A solid football start yesterday and ok on the base paths.  Here's baseball for Sept. 2nd.

2 units

TX -1.5 +105
NYM +130
SD +100

1 unit

TX 1st 5 -155
CLE TT u3.5 -110

MLB 9/1

Profitable night on the bases last night, here's what we have tonight.

PHI +105
STL +105
NYM +135
PIT +120
SD +110
AZ +130
BOS +150

8/31 MLB

Nice win last night with BYU and if you ended up playing Vandy, well done.  Here's what we have on the bases tonight, all 2 units.

PIT +115
SD +105
AZ +105
BOS +170

8/29 MLB Overnights

Overnights for tomorrow Wed. August 29th.

2 units

OAK -1.5 +125
TEX -155
DET -135
MN -110
LAA -165

1 unit
MIL -120

We'll also be looking to play OAK 1st 5, CLE TT under and BAL.

FOOTBALL! FOOTBALL! FOOTBALL!

Ittttsssss bbaaaackkkkk!!! Football season!  We're back to try and build off last year's successful CFB season.  We take a two pronged approach to CFB.  You'll see our two unit positions starting in Week 4 which are based on our models which use the last 3 weeks data.  We also do our own handicapping which are usually 1 unit places, but from time to time can range all the way up to 3 units.  We usually try to add an explanation to these positions, whereas the model positions will not have an explanation.    Below is what we're on and a position we're hoping to get a number on closer to kick.

CFB (1 units)

OH St. -22.5 This is mostly a play on Urban Meyer.  He's been one of the best ATS coaches in all of CFB while coaching.  In addition, this is his debut in his absolute dream job, the only job he probably would have returned to coaching for.  Meyer is also 6-2 ATS in Week 1 (or the first lined game - a few week ones were unlined) at Florida and Utah (we doubt Bowling Green was ever a 3 TD favorite in Week 1).  You have to think he's going to push the envelope in his first game and his team will want to give maximum effort in their first performance for him.

Penn St. -6 There's a theory out there on how to bet on injury news.  The theory goes that most people overreact to the injury, and the best position is to play the adjusted line on the team with the injury.  That's our theory here.  The line opened at -10.5 and has since dropped to -6.  At some point a line falls too far, and under 7 was that number for us.  Ohio will also face a raucous crowd who will really look to support their team in their first game back since the Sandusky Scandal.  Something says Ohio maybe unprepared for playing in front of 107,000+ who are treating this game as more than the typical warm-up, Week1 game against a MAC team it was scheduled as.

BYU -12.5  BYU opens up against a Washington St. team now led by Mike Leach.  This feels like a horrible matchup for WA St..  BYU has a stabilized its QB situation that should only improve after going on a 9 game winning streak to end the year.  What's most notable is the seven starters they return from last years #14 defense.  Leach debuting his "uncoventional" offense, with guys he didn't recruit for it, and haven't had time to become fully immersed in it, against what could be one of the country's best defenses this year, smells like trouble.

We'll also be looking to play Vanderbilt at a TD or more on Thursday.

8/28 MLB

Clean sweep yesterday.  We've now hit 12 straight and havent had a losing day in over week.  Here's what we have for tonight.

2 units
Oak -1.5 +140
TX -125
LAA -185

1 unit
Oak 1st 5 -120
CLE TT u3.5 -115

MLB Update 8/27 MLB

Since our last update we've gone 75-56 and picked up 13.7 units.  For the year we're now 218-248 and down 1.8 units for a -0.21% return.  After a really nice run here the last 2 weeks (+28 units) here's what we have today.

3 units

Oak -1.5 +120

2 units

Bal -115

1 unit

Oak 1st 5 -135

Oak/CLE u8

8/26 MLB

Third straight winning day.  Here's what we have for 8/26:

DET -145
BAL -150
BOS -135
CHW -155

8/25 MLB

Nice run on the 2 units yesterday.  Probably laying off the team totals for awhile (other than CLE facing LHP).  

TB -150

BAL -110

CHW -175

KC -105

8/24 MLB

Today's slate:

2 Units

DET -115
BAL -110
BOS -175
NYY -1.5 -140

1 Unit

PIT TT u3.5 -105
MIL 1st 5 -115
CLE TT u3.5 -125
NYY 1st 5 -1/2 -150

8/21 MLB

A handful for tonight:

2units
LAA -110
TX -180
OAK -155

1unit
LAA TT o5 -110

8/20 Overnights

Nice 2-0 Sunday.  Overnights for Monday:

TB -175
TX -170
OAK -150

MLB 8/18

Made a bit profit with Oakland last night.  Here's have for tonight, all 2.

TX -125
NYY -110
LAA -145
SEA -120
PHI TT u3.5 -105

8/17 MLB

Been a few days.  We're back at it today with the following:

2units

TEX -165
NYY -130
OAK -1.5 +185
LAA -150
SEA -135

1unit

OAK 1ST 5 -120
CLE TT U3 +120

8/14 MLB

Here are Tuesday's overnights.  We're unlikely to add anything tomorrow.

BAL -115
CHW -130
OAK -120

8/13 MLB Overnights

A solid Sunday to wrap up the week.  We'll do a recap tomorrow.  Here are our overnights for Monday, with the Indians facing LHP again.

DET -135
TB -130
LAA -1.5 +115

We'll also look to add LAA 1st 5, CLE TT under, and COL TT under when they're released.

8/12 MLB

Rough one yesterday, looking to bounce back today.

2 UNITS

NYY -165
BAL -120
TX -135
BOS -1.5 +110

1 UNIT

BOS 1ST 5 -150
CLE TT U3.5 +100

8/11 MLB

A very nice 4-1 night last night.  Here's what we have for Saturday.

2 UNITS
NYY -145
BOS -1.5 +130
BAL -130
CHW -145
DET -135

1 UNIT
BOS 1ST 5 -135
CLE TT U3.5 -105

8/10 Overnights

A nice night last night and two later tonight (Boston and Baltimore), here are the overnights for Friday.

BAL -130
NYY -130
TX -135
CHW -120
TB -110

We may add LAA depending on price.

8/8 MLB

Here's what we have with our typical "Fade the Indians every way possible when facing LHP."

2 units
TX -110
BAL -125
NYY -135
TB -130

1 units
MN -1.5 +160
MN 1st 5 +105
CLE TT u4.5 -125

8/7 Overnights

A very nice start with the Twins, lets hope everything comes in.  The overnights for tomorrow, will be looking to play the CIN TT under as well.

CLE -115
BAL -120
BOS -115
LAA -130

8/6 MLB

Our standard moneylines and a few TT today:

2units

BAL -135

DET -165

LAA -145

1units

MN -1.5 +175

MN 1st 5 +100

CLE TT u4

SD TT o3.5 +100

KC TT o3.5 +105

Will look at ATL for some 2nd half action in-game as well.

8/4 MLB

Today's slate, a nice one yesterday.

OAK -175
TX -150
TB -135
CHW -120

8/3 Overnights

Overnights for 8/3:

DET -140
BOS -165
TEX -170
OAK -130

Will look to bet LAD and SF on the in games.

MLB 8/2

Here's what we have for today, including the usual "Fade the Indians when playing a left handed pitcher" position:

BOS -175

TX -110

KC -125

CLE TT u4.5

8/1 MLB

New month, turn the page on July.   Here's to knowing August will be better.

NYY -185

TOR -110

TX -145

7/31 MLB Overnights

Decent start to the night, hopefully the D'Backs can end us on the positive side of the ledger.  Here's what we have for tomorrow (7/31)

NYY -175
DET -125
SD +160
KC -110
CHW -135
AZ +115

7/30 Recap

As we're sure you've all come to realize, its been a rough July here at The Sports Market.  Since our last update we're 21-31 and gave back 13.2 units.  For the year we're now 143-192 and down 15.5 units.  There's still two months baseball left and we expect turn this around with a few tweaks we've made moving forward.

7/30 MLB

Here's what we have today, we're expanding into favorites as there's alot of regression with the underdogs here in late July/August.  We'll have a recap later today.

CHC +125
AZ +115
NYY -170
BOS -115
TX -145
CHW -125

7/27 MLB and Early Overnights for 7/28

We have two for tonight:

SD +140
ATL +105
Will look to fade Houston and Lyles in the in game wagering.

For 7/28:

CHC +106
SD +128
Possibly PHI, MIL and LAD.

MLB 7/23 and In Game Wagering

We have four for tomorrow (7/23) below.  Additionally, we've been looking at some data on pitchers who struggle the third time through the lineup + bad bullpen's for in game betting.  The idea is to try and get a better price then the game offered knowing that hopefully be an advantage as the starter struggles and then gives way to a poor pen.  We've listed two games we've found that we'll be targeting tomorrow, and will tweet what/if anything we do.

Regular full game positions (2):

ATL +115
NYM +110
COL +180
SD +155

In Game Wagering Targets (1):

PIT better then -145 (when Samardzija faces lineup the 3rd time through)

MIL/PHI over 6.5 or better (both Wolf and Halladay have struggled in their 3rd time through along with having mediocre bullpens)

7/22 MLB

Three today:

ATL +125
MIA +105
SD +105

7/21 MLB

A fairly nice sized slate today, here's what we've got:

NYM +120
CHC +133
SF +125
MIA +143

MLB 7/20 Overnights

Nothing from us today, for tomorrow we're playing the following and may add a few others:

SF +113
MIl +125
CHC +140

MLB 7/18

Two overnights and we may add a few more tomorrow.

NYM +143
CHC +115

MLB 7/17 Overnights

We got a jump on some early lines for tomorrow (7/17):

NYM +118
SF +138

We may add a few in Chicago, Milwaukee and Colorado.  It depends how the lines will move between now and tomorrow.

MLB 7/16

No recap this week, we only had a weekends worth of action.  Here's what we have today:

AZ +120
PIT +105

MLB 7/15

Three for today, may have a few add in Atlanta and on the North Side of Chicago.

PIT +135
COL +120
STL +110

MLB 7/14

Only one game, but a good start to the second half.

Here's what we have on the over nights for Saturday 7/14:

COL +115

NYM +105

AZ +120

PIT +130

SD +125

Independence Day MLB

3 today, all are #ITGTeam plays.

NYM +115

MIL +115

SD +185

Two Week Recap and 7/3 MLB

We got a bit behind on our tracking, so this is more of a two week recap.  Sadly, it wasn't a pretty two weeks as we dip below the profitable line.  Over the last two weeks we were 18-25 and lost 12.7u.  For the year we're now 122-161 and down 2.4u.  We've upped our units as we think this is where the regression turns and hope to build off of last night's win.

Here's four for today all are #ITGTeam positions:

SF +120
PHI +105
CHC +180
SD +145

7/1 MLB

Welcome to a new month all.  We'll be upping everything back to two unit positions (like we were doing in May) other than where we specifically say something is 1 unit.  Today here is hat we have.  4 positions with the 2 unit positions all being #ITGTeam positions.  We will be looking to play the CLE TT under against a LHP who dominates lefties when that is released later today.

AZ +140
PIT +160
SD +145
CIN +135

6/30 MLB

We have four positions today and all are #ITGTeam positions except for LAD.

LAD +130
CHW +130
OAK +155
DET +105
CLE TT u4.5 +105

6/29 MLB

3-2, bit of a bounce back yesterday.  Will try to keep it rolling today:

PHI +100
WA +110 #ITGTeam
MIL +115 #ITGTeam
TOR +115 #ITGTeam
CHW +110
OAK +175 #ITGTeam

6/28 MLB

Been a rough two days and month.  Looking to turn the page here:

AZ +110 #ITGTeam
NYM +120 #ITGTeam
Oak +170 #ITGTeam
CHW +170 #ITGTeam
Cle TT u4 -115

6/20 MLB

Four for today, all are #ITGTeam positions. We swear a recap will be going up this evening.

SEA +145

TB +175

MN +115

PIT TT u4 +100

MLB 6/18

We'll have  recap tonight, but here's what we're on today.  All are #ITGTeam positions.

KC +105

SEA +160

SF TT u3.5 

6/17 MLB

1-2 yesterday.  A few today, with 4 being #ITGTeam positions.

BAL +115 #ITGTeam
TB +110 #ITGTeam
CHW +105 #ITGTeam
MN TT u3.5 -115#ITGTeam
PIT TT u4 +100

6/16 MLB

Three for today, all are #ITGTeam positions:

CHW +120

PHI TT u3.5 +110

PIT u3.5 +100

6/13 MLB

Two for today, as we turn this ship around.  Both are #ITGTeam positions.

NYY +100
CHW +120

Week 9 Recap

A very middling week from us.  We went 5-8 and lost 1 unit.  For the year we're now 104-126.  We're up 10.38 units for a 2.72% return.  We'll continue to hope to turn it around this week.  

6/9 MLB

A tough two days.  Here's what we have today, all are #ITGTeam positions

TOR +130
CLE +130
TB +105

6/6 MLB

Lost our only play yesterday.  Here's what we have today.

TB +130 (ITG)
SEA +140 (ITG)
SD/SF u6 +105 (ITG)
CHC TT u3 -125

Week 8 Recap and 6/5 MLB

A rough week with a bit of regression.  We went 12-18 and lost 13.75 units.  For the year we're now 99-118 up 11.4 for a 3.12% return.  Below we have on position for today an ITGTeam position as well.

SEA +140 (ITGTeam)

We may have an add on the South Side of Chicago tonight, so check us on Twitter in case that happens.

6/4 MLB

Only one position over night for 6/4 MLB.  We'll be back tomorrow to post our Week 8 recap, its highly unlikely we will be adding anything to this one position.

SEA +140 (ITGTeam)

6/3 MLB

A real nice Friday and Saturday.  We're back again today with two of the highest ground ball pitchers (Masterson and Cahill) against the highest ground ball teams (MN and SD).  We also like the under in CLE/MN because anytime you can put up a middle/end of the order that goes S. Duncan, M. LaPorta, A. Cunningham, L. Marson, you have to do it.  You don't do it to win of course, but give us teh opportunity to bet the under.  With that being said here's our card:

2 Units
MN TT u3.5 +105

1 Unit
SD TT u3.5 +100
CLE/MN u8.5

6/2 MLB

A nice start to the night looking at CLE/MN and Boston.  These are our two overnights for 6/2 MLB.  Both are ITGTeam positions and again 1 unit, unless otherwise noted moving forward.

SEA +160
LAA +105

6/1 MLB

Going into June we're going to back off a little bit.  Both in number of plays and how much.  Unless otherwise noted everything will be a 1 unit position moving forward.  However, with that being said we have our first 3 unit play and our first play on a favorite.  Both come in MN/CLE game tonight at Jacob's Field (yes, Jacob's).

You may have noticed we've been playing team totals here and there over the last few weeks.  We've been doing this mostly (and with some success) based on ground ball pitcher facing some of the most ground ball friendly teams (SD, SF, MN and CHC).  Tonight we have the pitcher who induces the highest number of ground balls (Derek Lowe) facing the team who hits the most ground balls (MN).

Last time out Lowe pitched a complete game shutout without a strikeout and induced 4 double play balls.  One would expect that at least part of this may continue.  Mr. Lowe might not have the same amount of success he had last time out, but under 4 runs at -105 looks quite appealing.

Two other components that look appealing are the Indians at -125 facing a right handed pitcher (Pavano) who's FIP is 63 points higher against left handed batters (despite a lower BABIP) and who's K/BB is 7.5 against right-handers compared to 3.2 against left-handers.  The Tribe features a lineup almost completely full of lefties.

The final component we are going to play  is something we rarely do, and that Runs + Hits + Errors.  Despite playing the under with MN team total, we like the R+H+E to go over 28 tonight.  We fully expect Lowe to allow some hits and base runners, but get out of  jams with the double play ball.  (It also is a slight hedge on our bigger position of the MN TT.

Our official card for 6/1:

3 Units
MN TT u4 -105 (ITGTeam)

2 Units
CLE -125 (ITGTeam)

1 Unit
MN/CLE R+H+E over 28 -115
BOS +105 (ITGTeam)
LAA +105
    

5/30 MLB

The overnights for 5/30.

CHW +133 ITGTeam
STL +110 ITGTeam
DET +135
HOU +140
NYY +110 ITGTeam

5/29 MLB

Overnights for 5/29, all ITGTeam plays.

BAL +130
SEA +180
AZ +115

Week 7 Recap

We came back to earth a bit after an outstanding Week 6.  For the week we were 17-19 and essentially broke almost dead even.  The team totals we've been playing (albeit at a lower unit) helped us out.  For the year we're now 87-100 up 25.2u for an 8.01% return.

We'll likely be dialing things back at some point this week.  We've found lines to tighten up and be more difficult in the summer months.  You'll probably see us playing less in both number of plays and in unit size.  We'll be sure to specify precisely when we do this.

5/28 MLB

We'll have our weekly recap tomorrow (5/27).  We had a rough end of this week, but are hoping this bounces us back.  A bit of a large card, and we also have a lean to Cincy, SF TT, CHC TT and possibly Houston.

WA +105
STL +105
DET +110
CHW +105
BAL +130
SEA +190
LAD+105

5/26 MLB

4-4 yesterday and ended up sneaking out a small profit.  Here's what we have on a gorgeous Memorial Day Weekend.  We'll be getting back to posting the overnight lines today or tomorrow.  Got a bit busy with the holiday, but look for that to return.

TOR +170 (ITGTeam)
SF +110 (ITGTeam)
TB +110 (ITGTeam)
HOU +110

5/25 MLB

Rough stretch that past few days going 0-4, but that was inevitable after the hot streak we're on.  Here's what we have tonight.


TB +150 (ITG)
WA +140 (ITG)
TOR +120 (ITG)
CLE +110
SEA +115

1 Unit 
SD  TT u3.5 -110
SF TT u3 +100
CH TT u3.5 -115

5/23 MLB

Quite a large card for us tomorrow.  To help with some confusions we'll start designating our #ITGTeam plays here as well so you don't get confused.  Also, everything we play is currently two units unless otherwise designated so.  

When we say we're "leaning" on playing something, it means just that.  We're "leaning" on playing it at the price as of this blogs publishing.  We think one of two things: Either A) We think we'll get a  better price later, or B) It may move to a dog price and therefore fit in our parameters.  We try and give you a heads up so you can keep an eye out on Twitter to see if we make it official, or if its something you were thinking about you know its close for us.

The list for 5/23:

BAL +105

TOR +105 (ITGTeam)

SF +120

SEA +140

KC +185 (ITGTeam)

CLE +110

CIN +105

LAD +100 (ITGTeam)

Week 6 Recap and 5/22 MLB

Our best week of the season by far.  For the week we went 18-12 playing all moneyline dogs and picked up 22.5 units.  For the year we're now 70-81 and up 25 units.

If you'd like to see what our "best" plays are we narrow them down just a bit more and submit them as part of the "ITG Team".  These are independently tracked and verified by @ITGLife.  You can read more about his endeavor to create a team of handicappers at http://itglife.com/.  Our success rates on the "ITG Team" plays can be found there.  If you search #ITGTeam on Twitter, you'll see which positions get that designation from us each night along with the plays the rest of the team has selected.

As always these are what we are grabbing over night for 5/22:

BAL +115
TOR +125
SF +105
LAD +135

We also have leans to Atlanta, St. Louis RL (again for 1 unit), and SD TT under (same).

5/21 MLB

Ended up a very solid week 2-1 on this Sunday with one pending, so we're guaranteed a profitable day and week.  We'll recap the whole week with the profit/loss, return % and where we stand year to date tomorrow (5/21).  We're grabbing these early and may have a few more to add depending on where prices shake out.

BAL +105
TOR +140

5/20 MLB

A solid day yesterday.  The one's we added on Twitter held us a back a bit, but a profitable day, nonetheless.  Here's what we have for the gorgeous Sunday.

CIN +150
HOU +150
SEA +135
LAD +115

Good luck!

5/19 MLB

3-0 last night (5/17).  We haven't had a first pitch yet, but again we're going to continue to try and grab early lines.  This is what we're on for tomorrow, Saturday, May 19th.

CIN +145

HOU +165

CHW +130

We'll also be looking at adding the following at the right prices, much like we've added Miami tonight, NYM, Oakland, a team at the Trop, and Baltimore.

5/18 MLB

2-1 on 5/16 and 2-1 so far tonight, 5/17.  Only two for tomorrow so far, but depending on how things move we may have more at The Jake, Kauffman Stadium, Dodger Stadium and AT&T Park.

CIN +125
HOU +145

5/17 MLB

Tuesday was rough, and we're hoping for a split tonight here as we're 1-1 with two pending.  We have 4 games for tomorrow that are possible, so be sure to check Twitter, or another post in the morning, as we're likely to add to these for Thursday.

OAK +175
BOS +120
HOU +135
LAD +115

5/16 MLB

Lost our afternoon action, but have two more pending.  We've found grabbing things earlier has given us more value, so we're going to attempt to get down on things the night before as much as possible moving forward.  Here's what we have for tomorrow, along with a few we'll be checking back on in the AM.

TOR +115
BOS +125
BAL +120
CHW +120

The others that may happen, depending on what the price does are: Houston, St. Louis and Arizona.

May 15th MLB

2-1 last night, another solid day.  Only three today, including some late afternoon action for east coasters and pure afternoon delight for west coasters.

SEA +160
OAK +150
CIN +105

Week 5 Recap and MLB 5/14

We had a really nice week going until last night.  Two blown saves really hurt us, but it happens from time to time.  For the week we were 19-24 and lost 0.6 units.  For the year we're now 52-69, up 2.5 units for a 1.32% return.  We look to start out this week well by playing the following:

TB +130
SEA +160
CIN +125

Depending on what price we can get we may end up adding CHW and BAL.

May 13th MLB

AMLBANOTHER real nice day yesterday. Let's hope it continues and Happy Mothers Day. SEA +180 BAL +105 CLE +115 HOU +110 ATL +135 COL +125 LAA +120 NYM +135

May 12th MLB

Another 3-3 night, but we were on the positive side. Today's card s a bit bigger than usual for us, but it's what we got. LAA +130 SEA +175 BAL +120 CLE +120 OAK +125 HOU +125 WA +125 ATL +115 COL +120

May 11th MLB

2-2 yesterday.  We'll take that all year long.  Here's what we have for today:

BAL +115
HOU +120
SEA +125
CLE +110
AZ +110
COL +160

5/10 MLB

A bit of a bounce back to profitability last night after a few tough days.  Today, we have the following including carrying over the Baltimore game that was rained out yesterday.

GM 1 BAL +115
GM 2 BAL +110
TB +135
CLE +140

Betting MLB 60/60/42 and May 9th MLB

In previous posts, we’ve described various models and algorithms we use to handicap football and basketball.  In baseball we don’t use models.  We start with the basic premise that the worst team is going to win 60 games and the best team is going to lose 60 games, it’s the other 42 games that determines its season.  Therefore we use a criterion to find when the underdogs are going to win their 60 games and the favorite is going to lose their 60 games at the right price.

Before we get into discussing the specifics around the criterion one MUST understand prices when betting a money line sport.   Obviously, each money line converts to a different win percentage to be profitable.  For example a bet at +145 has to win at a much lower percentage to be profitable than +105.  An easy way to illustrate why price is important is to maybe compare a 5 cent difference on each bet (say +145 vs. +140) when played in 600 games over a baseball season.  If you hit at 50% you would earn an extra +1500 (300 wins x 5 cents).  At $100 a game, that would be an extra $1,500 in your pocket, and an extra 2.5% return on your bets.  In a business where a 10% return is considered outstanding (and maybe even unsustainable) getting a few extra cents each day can make an enormous difference.  If you don’t understand this it won’t matter what criteria or approach you use, it will be extremely difficult to make a profit betting on baseball. 

The following is the specific measures we use in our criteria and how we use them.  Our back testing has shown that each of these increases profitability.   We’ve described what basic concept we use and some details around it. 

Underdogs:  We only play underdogs.  If you’re a favorite, you’re not on our card.  To start most people don’t like playing underdogs.  They don’t win as much.  They are not as good as their opponent, and people simply don’t understand the pricing of underdogs.  This leads to mispriced underdogs across the board.  There has been a multitude of articles and even an academic study showing that betting on underdogs can be profitable.

Run Differential: After compiling the list of all the days’ underdogs, the next thing you want to do is throw out the super shitty teams.  Even though underdogs are profitable, not all are.  This is what we use to screen out betting on teams that are going to lose more than their fair share (maybe even more that they don’t win 60).  Run differential (“run dif”) is the amount of runs scored – runs allowed.   Run dif is widely considered to be a good predictor of a teams quality.  The way we screen using run differential is we throw out any team who has a negative run differential that is a great than a certain percentage of their games played.  For example if you wanted to use 60% as the screen and a team has played 30 games, if their run differential is worse than -18 (30 x .60) than you would throw them out.

Above Average Pitchers:  Pitching is a huge determinant in both price and outcome.  We want to eliminate teams playing above average pitchers.  There’s a multitude of stats and advanced stats you can use.  In the past we’ve used Jeff Sagarin’s power rankings.  You can use ERA, FIP (fielding independent pitching) or whatever you want.  You can throw out teams playing the best 15, 20 or 25 pitchers in MLB or a giving league based on any of the measures above.  The idea is to determine some sort of ranking that eliminates teams facing above average pitchers. 

We happen to like using FIP as a measure and eliminate top pitchers from the previous month.   Why FIP and the previous month?  For one FIP is a better measure than ERA and for 2 you can search top pitchers by month from previous years at www.fangraphs .com.   This aided with back testing and knowing when we actually go to bet we can use the previous months ranking.  We had used Sagarin’s rankings in the past, but you can only back test against previous year’s FINAL standings.  This can be difficult when you’re in the current year  because you don’t know if that pitcher your betting will be in the top 15, 20, 25, etc. that year.

Pricing: The last metric is around pricing.  We did some back testing to see if there was a certain minimum and maximum price where the rest of the criteria started to see less of a return.  From 2009-2011 playing underdogs greater than +180 (i.e. +190) led to less of a return.  Playing teams at less than +110 made a difference in some years, but not in others so we go ahead and play any dog less than +180.

Once you’ve written down all the underdogs, scratched off the crappy teams and eliminated any team playing an ace pitcher, you’re left with who we usually bet on.  Who is that you may ask?  Well it often ends up being mediocre or better teams, against mediocre or worse pitchers at prices where you may not even need to hit 50% to turn a profit.  What you’ve also probably ended up with is a team that is likely playing in one of its 60 games it should win, 60 games it opponent should lose, or even if its in one of the 42 games that’s 50/50 you’re still getting +$$$.  Leave thoughts or questions in the comments or on Twitter.  What other criteria makes sense to you?

MLB for May 9th


COL +115
OAK +125
TB +125
BAL +120
SEA +115
SF +120

May 8th MLB and 1,500 Followers Contest

We promised a contest and here it is.  For Tuesday May 8th retweet us whatever tweet got you here and your best 3 bets for Tuesday May 8th.  Whoever nets the most (assuming each bet is $100) will win a 3 team $50 parlay where you get the winnings if it cashes.  If for some reason there's a tie whoever tweeted first will win.

For Tuesday here's what we have:

BAL +125
CHW +130
TB +105
ATL +105
CIN +125

Week 4 Recap and May 7th MLB

A tough 1-4 day to end the week, but overall it was a quite successful one.  For the week we went 14-9 and picked up 13.1 units.  We has a bit of a rough patch in Week 2, but 2 weeks later and we've grinded back to the positive side of the ledger.  For the year we're now 33-45, up 3.1 units for a 3.00% return.

A quite extensive card for us on Monday, but it fits in our parameters.  Here's what we have, and may add Colorado later in the day.  Please note all our wagers are based on the listed pitcher for the OPPOSING team and if he's a scratch so is our position.  Usually these are easy to find and are uncommon to change, but with the doubleheader tomorrow in CLE (and a greater likelihood for a scratch) we've listed the two pitchers to be clear.  Tomorrow or Wed. we'll be going through the "parameters" in how we handicap MLB.

GM 1 CHW +105 (McCallister)
GM 2 CHW +130 (Tomlin)
BAL +140
CIN +115
AZ +110
SF +130
SEA +130

May 6th MLB

Our 5th straight winning day yesterday, with the loss coming in extras.  Have a bit of large card for us today with 4 positions and possibly a 5th on the LAD.

CHW +160
BAL +140
TOR +125
HOU +130

Cinco De Mayo MLB

Another nice night going 2-0.  We have three more for sure and may add the Red Legs later if the right price presents itself.  Enjoy Cinco De Mayo, the fight and the Derby today.

BAL +105
CHW +120
CLE +135

May 4th MLB

I nice 2-0 yesterday for us with our first 2 unit positions.  We have two more today, and may add Colorado and/or the White Sox.

CLE +135
BAL +145

Thursday May 3rd MLB

Well in the last week it appears we're finally pulling ourselves out and variance has corrected itself.  A very solid 2-1 night last night.  After looking back at all of our testing it appears our most consistent and productive months are April, May and September.  This actually makes sense based on our approach (full details on that early next week).  So with that being said all of our positions will be 2 units through the end of May.  We might be taking off June-August, but thats yet to be decided.

Therefore today our positions at 2 units are as follows:

PHI +110
CLE +110

Wednesday May 2nd MLB

A nice clean sweep last night.  Today we have three positions, including one for the afternoon crowd.  We may begin upping our positions to two units here shortly as it appears the tide has turned, but for now we'll still only using one unit.

TX +115
BAL +165
CLE +120

May 1st MLB

2-3 yesterday with a tough loss on Seattle.  Here's what we've got for today:

BAL +175
TOR +130
LAD +100

Week 3 Recap

We've certainly rallied since our last recap in the middle of last week.  Over the weekend and since Thursday we went 8-5 and picked up 4.5 units.  We sure hope this is a good indicator for May.  For the year we're now 19-36, down 10 units for a 14.81% return.  

April 30th MLB

We wrap up what may have been a tough month today.  Last week things began to turn and we hope that continues through May.  We'll recap all of last week later today.  For now this is what we're on.

AZ +160
BAL +160
SEA +125
HOU +105
LAD +120

Sunday April 29th MLB

Came back to earth a bit yesterday with an 0-2.  Still a pretty good week so far.  Today we have 4 positions for sure and are waiting to see if we can get a better price with Baltimore, Philadelphia (need to get +100) and Colorado.  Here's what we have today:

CLE +105
SEA +135
HOU +180
TB +120

Friday April 27th MLB

A nice sweep yesterday.  Hopefully the rally continues today.  We have two thus far and may have an add in the CHW/BOS game and in the SD/SF game.

SEA +180
HOU +131

Week 2 MLB Recap

An ugly start for us if you been following along the last two weeks.  Its a long season and are hoping to turn it around.  We try and keep everything above board so we'll run the harrowing last few weeks.  Going into today April 26, 2012 we went 7-27 (is that possible??!!???) and lost 17.5 units.  For the year we're now 11-31and down 14.6 units.  Until we get a bit larger of a sample size we'll chalk this rough patch up to variance (read more here) and keep moving along.

Sunday April 22nd MLB

A rough start so far, but we'll keep grinding.  Here's our full card for today:

CLE +105
CHW -115
CHW/SEA under 7 +100

Friday 4/20 MLB

A bit of a bigger card then yesterday.  If you've noticed we've joined the ITG Team over at http://itglife.com/  You'll be able to find some of our positions over there.  Should help to provide some good independent tracking and having interacted with a lot of the people you should find some more good info.  Here's what we have today:

MIA +115
SF +125
HOU +120
CO +120
AZ +110
BAL +135
OAK +110
SEA +115

Toronto and Texas are also under consideration for the time being.  

Thursday April 19th

Another rough one yesterday.  Only two today, again with some afternoon action.

LAD +115
AZ +105

Wednesday April 18th MLB

Rough day yesterday, lost a few one run games.  Here's what we have today including some afternoon delight.  We'll be waiting to see what happens with DET/CHW.

NYM +110
BAL +138
CLE +109

Tuesday April 17th MLB

2-1 last night.  Anytime you're over .500 play all dogs, you have to be happy.  A bit larger card today.  Baltimore almost made the cut, but we went ahead and passed.  We may add the Mets later.

TB +133
CHC +160
TX +108
KC +100
LAD +115
CIN +110
SD +108

Monday April 16th MLB

A bit of a rough patch yesterday.  Today we have the following:

TB +105
SD +120
Pittsburgh +125

Major League Baseball 2012 Season

Today is our first post for Major League Baseball.  If you've been following us on Twitter @TheSportsMarket, you've gotten the first few of our positions.  We'll be posting here, on Twitter and utilizing Wagerminds for some independent tracking as well.  You can find our profile for them here.  Our tracking may vary slightly from theirs as we utilize a few books to get the best lines.  At Wagerminds you'll be able to see that we're successful against widely available market lines (or at least we hope) and how we should get a little boost by shopping for better lines.

Our approach is fairly simple.  We try to get mediocre or better teams, at dog prices against mediocre or worse pitching.  We play things a little differently earlier in the season, but for the most part you'll see us playing only dogs all year long. The only other thing we change is sometimes playing the under in widely or nationally televised games. With that being said, here's what we're on today, all 1 unit:

Houston +183
NYM +180
SD +185
LAA/NYY under 10 -120

Conference Tournament Futures (PAC12, SEC, ACC, BIG10)

The last of the conference tournament futures.  In the PAC12 where the Tournament is very wide open we're showing value on California, Arizona and Stanford.  Cal and Arizona are on opposite sides of the bracket so we'll actually be playing both on the ML starting tomorrow and hope they're both in the Championship Game.

In the SEC there's value on Kentucky and Alabama.  We'll be playing AL in the tournament starting on Friday (as they're a heavy favorite against S. Carolina).  Many have seen Kentucky vs. the Field options.  Depending on which of the % you put more faith in (Team Rankings vs. Ken Pom) they're may or may not be value on those.

In the ACC their is some value on VA and Miami FL.  Virginia seems to be fading fast so we'll be playing Miami FL.  There's a bit of value on Roy Williams' Tar Heels, but historically they haven't given maximum effort until the real tournament.

In the Big 10 we're showing two options: Indiana and Michigan St.  We'll likely play both on the ML starting in the quarterfinals and cash in Indiana if they meet Michigan St.  Izzo is one of our favorite coaches to back in the post-season and Indiana has struggled a bit outside of Bloomington this year.

Conference Tournament Futures (A10, Big East, Big 12, CUSA, MAC, MEAC,

Tonight we have our first shot at actually cashing something our analysis has led us to play.  Fairfield plays Loyola MD as 2.5 point favorite and -140 on the ML to represent the MAAC in the NCAA Tournament.  We have 3 units of which to risk or hold on to.  We can risk all 3 and win 2.2 units giving us 5.2 units with a win or we can take one off the table, risk 2 units to win 1.4.  This would essentially give us a risk less bet, by taking our original 1 unit off the table.  These payouts are slightly below the +500 offered before the tournament because we did not bet Fairfield in their first matchup as a heavy favorite.  We're going to choose to take our original one unit off the table and wager 2 units on Fairfield at -140.  This would net us a 3.2 unit profit with a win and no loss either way.

Below we have the same analysis we've been running for the A10, Big East, Big 12, CUSA, MAC, & MEAC.  Based on our analysis in the A10 there's a little bit of value on St. Louis (we'll be passing).  In the Big East there's also a very minuscule amount of value on Syracuse.  Shifting to the middle of the country in the Big 12 Kansas presents some nice value.  Because they will be a favorite in every game, we'll just go ahead and play the future at KS +105 to win the Big 12.  There really isn't any value in CUSA with Memphis as such a dominant force, which is the polar opposite of the MAC.

The MAC is about as wide open as conference can be, there is value appearing from all over the place.  Toledo, Kent St., Bowling Green and Miami OH all show value based on the current odds.  Toledo and Miami OH actually play each other tonight, so we'll likely look to play the winner of this matchup in the next game on the ML.  In addition we like Bowling Green, but its not worth risking a lot for a small payoff to start the tournament as such a heavy favorite.  We'll look to play them in the next round.  Remember, even with these long shots its not necessarily about trying to hit a 200:1 or 125:1 shot, but being able to lock in profit at a later date or take some money off the table and have a "riskless" bet moving forward.  

Back east in the MEAC both Savannah St. and NC Central are showing value.  NC Central is showing the most value based on the below and we'll be playing them when this tournament kicks off tomorrow.

2★
Fairfield -140


1★
Kansas +105 to win Big 12 Tournament

Saturday March 3rd CBB Through 5pm

Here's what we have through 5pm tonight, we'll back back later with the evening card.

2★
Duquesne/ St. Louis under 132
WV +1
WV/SF under 119.5
E. Michigan +5
Nova/Cincy under 138.5
Wofford/W. Carolina under 129.5
St. Bonaventure +3.5
TN +1
Cuse/Louisville under 132
Louisville +8.5


1★
Rider +8.5

Conference Tournament Futures (Big Sky, Summit, Sun Belt)

Below you'll find the analysis we've been doing all week for conference tournaments.  By our analysis below it would appear there is value on Portland St. and Eastern Washington.  Both play today in the quarterfinals.  In the Sun Belt there appears to be some value with Denver. We'll be playing Eastern Washington -500 today and Denver when they tip off in the Sun Belt, both for 1 unit.

Friday March 2 CBB

Last night was a rough one after some stellar work the last 10 days.  Here's what we have for tonight with a breakdown of the Big Sky, Summit and Sun Belt coming later.

4★
ND/Providence under 132

2★
W. MI -2.5

PA/Brown under 130

Yale +6

BYU/SD under 146.5

1★
W. MI -2.5

Thursday March 1st CBB

"It's March!  Take a deep breath!  Here we go!"

The next month should be a blast.  Be sure to checkout our on going conference tournament odds comparison throughout this week and next.  The regular season is beginning to wind down, but we do have a few positions tonight.

3★
La Tech / Fresno under 129


2★
Nova/Rutgers under 138
Jax St. / Morehead under 117.5
OR/Colorado under 137.5
UT St. -4.5


1★
Bradley +7
SD -3.5

Conference Tournament Futures (MAAC, MVC, Northeast).

Tonight we've put together an analysis of the MAAC, MVC and Northeast as we have all week.  As you may or may not know we use TeamRankings.com and Ken Pom who utilizes a Log5 analysis and then compare them to current odds.  You can see a full breakdown of each team conference below.


Based on this analysis you may find value on Manhattan and Fairfiled in the MAAC (we're likely to play both on the ML when they start tomorrow), Wichita St. in the MVC (we'll likely pass) and Quinnipiac and Robert Morris in the Northeast. 


Tonight we'll be playing Quinnipiac on the ML for 1 unit at -150.  If you want to read more about our futures strategy by playing game by game, you can read here.  We did this last night with Jacksonville St. and got a win giving us two total units tonight.  Tonight they're -120 against Morehead St.  We'll be rolling over both of our units tonight.  If the Gamecocks can pull of a win tonight we'll have some flexibility tomorrow.


2★
Jacksonville St. -120


1★
Quinnipiac -150

Wednesday February 29th CBB

A bit of a regression yesterday after a string of nice days.  Here's what we've got and note that Jax St. on the ML is based on our futures analysis we posted earlier.

3★
Charlotte / Duquesne under 139


2★
Purdue/Penn St. over 131.5
Richmond / Dayton under 137
MD +18
Lville/USF under 119.5
BC/Ga Tech under 121.5
Kent -2
Kent/Ohio under 142.5
Marshall -1
Miami OH +7
Rhode Island/Fordham under 139
SMU/S. Miss under 121.5
AF/NM under 121
S. Carolina / Miss St. under 131
Iowa / Nebraska under 134
Rice / UTEP under 125
Nebraska -1.5
NW +7.5


1★
Jacksonville St ML. +100

Conference Tournament Futures (OVC, WCC, Patriot, Atlantic Sun, American East)

Yesterday we discussed our approach to betting conference tournament futures, and how playing each team game by game may give you some flexibility and value.  We'll continue to use this approach and look for value as we go through each of the tournaments.  Below we have a similar breakdown of what we did yesterday for the OVC, WCC, Patriot, Atlantic Sun and American East.  Based on these numbers it would appear that Tennessee St. and Brigham Young offer some value based on Ken Pom's Log5 analysis.

BYU is currently +400 to win the WCC, while the Log 5 analysis concludes the odds should be more like +310.  This results in a +090 worth of value on the Cougars.  We will look to play BYU on the ML through out the WCC Tournament and hope the flexibility of playing BYU game by game will net us positive results.

Tuesday February 28th CBB

A nice night going 2-1.  As odds are released on conference tournament we'll continue to update the blog with analysis to hopefully find some opportunities to attack with the strategy we discussed last night.  Until then, here's what we're on tonight.

2★
KS St. / TX A&M under 121.5
MI St. / Indiana under 138.5
Butler / Wright St. under 118.5
Wisconsin Green Bay +3
Duke / Wake under 143
Wyoming / TCU under 124
E. Washington / Idaho St. under 141