Buying High

Today marks the beginning of the NFL season.  Now that the owners and players have figured out how to split more money then we’ll see in a lifetime, we can get back to football.  Despite the labor unrest over the summer, lines for this first week were posted as early as April.  You can view them here via @ViewFromVegas

Obviously, much has changed in the NFL.  Free agency, injuries, and preseason performances, have all changed people’s view of various teams, which has caused some line movement.  However, with the availability and the amount of time people have had to bet into these lines, they have been rounded out to essentially sharp, market lines. 

In equity markets, the idea is to buy equity stocks low and sell them high.  Buy when they’re undervalued and sell when they begin to reach an over-valued level.  Attempting to bet into these Week 1 lines is essentially doing the opposite of this.  For the most part much of the value in these lines has been extracted.  Trying to bet into a line on this Sunday (or Thursday) morning is like buying a stock at its peak.  Therefore, you have to be doubly sure you perceive the current line as having value before taking a position. 

First we’ll go through the positions we’re taking this weekend with some of the lines having being taken earlier in the summer which helped us (sorry if you still can’t get them at those numbers).  For each game we’ll also show the opening line to help reinforce how things have changed in the past five months and why things are much sharper by now.  We’ll also give a “pick” for each game for shits and giggles sake (if we haven’t already taken a position), but please know we will not be backing those with our own money.  Only the official 1★ positions have 1 unit of our money backing them.  Like college football we tend to rely on model based picks which we will begin releasing at higher units in Week 4.

1★ Plays:

Atlanta @ Chicago:

Our Position: Atlanta -1.5

Opening Line: Chicago +1

Current Line: Atlanta -3

This season we see Chicago regressing to the mean, as we could argue they were the league’s “luckiest” team last year.  They were able to take advantage of a weak schedule and an unsustainable record (7-3) in games decided by a TD or less.  Atlanta improved their team after a 13-3 season last year.  While that record may be unsustainable we feel they are closer to a 13-3 team than the Bears were to their record.  Even if their record doesn’t show it this year, the additions of Ray Edwards and Julio Jones should make Atlanta a better team.  We would not play Atlanta by more than a -3 pt favorite, but would play this if you could get it at -2.5.

Cincinnati @ Cleveland

Our Position: Cleveland / Cincinnati under 37

Opening Line: Cleveland -3

Current Line: Cleveland -6.5

Unofficial Line Pick for S&G: Cleveland -6.5

The line movement here is very much based on the “retirement” of Carson Palmer and the performance (or lack thereof) of Andy Dalton.  We viewed taking Cleveland -3 as a very sharp position, however were not able to get down at that number.  We also view the current line of Cleveland -6.5 as a very sharp line.  For the shits and giggles portion we would take the Browns, but again view the line as very sharp (which will be discussed later on). 

The first week of the NFL season often sees many unders as teams shake off the rust.  This is something that was only exacerbated by this year’s lockout.  Our position on the under 37 reflects the same opinion the market has had of Cincinnati’s offense.  A rookie without a full off-season is likely to struggle in the first week.  The lockout also put the Browns at a disadvantage.  Colt McCoy is in his second season at Quarterback and Pat Shurmur is a rookie coach installing a new offense.  One would have to think there will be plenty of rust and miscues on the offensive side of the ball for both teams.  Cincinnati does have an above average defense that also returns its defensive coordinator to provide some consistency.  Both teams will likely try and control the game by running the ball.  The lack of continuity in the off-season with both teams, two young quarterbacks, an average Cleveland defense and above average Cincinnati defense lead to our under play here.

New York Giants @ Washington

Our Position: New York Giants -3

Opening Line: New York Giants -3

Current Line: New York Giants -3

This is a line that has moved a little, but not much throughout the off-season.  Much of this can be attributed to the fact there has been a lot of continuity with both teams.  The Redskins did not (for once) go crazy in free agency.  Both have returning coaches and front offices.  There was some question as to who the Redskin quarterback would be (Rex Grossman will be starting), but outside of that and the addition of Tim Hightower, not much changed with the Redskins.  When they did not pick up a quarterback in free agency, the line ticked up to 3.5.  When the Giants experienced a rash of injuries on their defense, the line ticked back to 3.  Despite Tim Hightower’s solid performance we don’t see Washington having improved much (especially on offense) from last year.  The Giants may have a ton of injuries on defense, but a lack of talent at the skill positions on offense for the Redskins lead us to back the Giants.

Carolina @ Arizona

Our Position: Carolina / Arizona under 37

Opening Line: Arizona -3

Current Line: Arizona -7

Unofficial Line Pick for S&G: Carolina +7

Much of this line change came from Arizona’s addition of Kevin Kolb at Quarterback.  We don’t necessarily agree with this large uptick, as to us Kolb is unproven in a new system, with little time to work with new teammates and coaches.  However, Carolina starting a rookie quarterback who looked terrible in pre-season after being the worst team in the NFL leads us to pass on taking an official position on Carolina.  Instead we believe the factors that will affect both of these offenses will lead to a low-scoring game and took a position on the under.  

Minnesota @ San Diego

Our Position: Minnesota +9

Opening Line: San Diego -10.5

Current Line: San Diego -9

Although we were unable to get the best of the line at 10.5 we still feel there is value on Minnesota.  San Diego is often the darling of the off-season, yet historically they have fallen flat in September.  The Chargers under Norv Turner are 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in Week 1 and 4-8-1 ATS in September.  In Norv Turner’s career he is 4-11-2 ATS Week 1 and 14-21-1 ATS in September. 

This may sound strange, but we also feel Donovan McNabb may be a bit underrated this year.  With little or no talent around him last year in Washington, combining with a tumultuous relationship with Mike Shannahan, his poor play could be somewhat explained.  We think his play will be improved this year, even if it’s not up to his former All-Pro level.  Additionally, Brett Favre quietly had a terrible year last year with the highest interception rate of his career.  We won’t even go into the struggles of Tavaris Jackson when Mr. Wrangler Jeans wasn’t playing.  Meanwhile, McNabb has the 3^rd best interception rate for a career in NFL history.  We think the Vikings will be undervalued much of the early part of the year and will look to play them.  In a matchup against an often overvalued San Diego squad, this is one of those spots.

Oakland @ Denver (Monday Night)

Our Positions: Denver -2 and Oakland / Denver under 40.5

Opening Line: Denver -1.5

Current Line: Denver -3

We’re taking Denver mostly as a play against Oakland.  They had a terrible off-season losing their coach the players were supporting (Tom Cable), perhaps the NFL’s best corner (Namdi Assomugha) and some of their best offensive players outside of Darren McFadden (Zach Miller and Robert Gallery).  They also looked fairly awful in the pre-season, managing one TD in four games when most of the starters were playing in the first half.  We also think Denver’s defense will be much improved with John Fox a defensive-minded head coach coming in, the return of Elvis Dumervil and first round pick Von Miller at linebacker.  This game combines teams with two new coaches and two quarterback situations that fluctuated throughout training camp and the pre-season, an improved defense in Denver, and an inept offense in Oakland.  This is why we’ve also added the under as a position.

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

Our Position: 2 Team, 6 Point Teaser +100 Pittsburgh +8.5 and Cleveland -0.5

Opening Line: Baltimore -3

Current Line: Baltimore -2.5

Unofficial Line Pick for S&G: Pittsburgh +2.5

This teaser at +100 is offered by 5Dimes.  Often teasers are looked at as a square position; however they can be used effectively.  Jason Sample @SampleThis32 explained this earlier today.  We’ll get into this more in a later blog, but in addition to Jason thoughts, they are most useful when the lines are sharp, and the game is likely to be low scoring.  We see that in this matchup along with the previous sharpness described in the Cleveland / Cincinnati game.  In the first week, we expect this to be a low-scoring affair and a close game.  These teams are very evenly matched and therefore feel 2.5 is a true and sharp line.  The likelihood that Baltimore beats Pittsburgh by more than a TD (something they haven’t done since 2006) is extremely low.  This tease also allows us to cross the all important numbers of 3 and 7 in Pittsburgh’s case (and 3 in the Brown’s case.)

½ ★ Plays

Tennessee @ Jacksonville

Our Position: Tennessee +3

Opening Line: Jacksonville -2.5

Current Line: Jacksonville -1

We tweeted this play out as soon as the news that David Garrard was cut came out.  We found this out on Twitter and released it on our Twitter @TheSportsMarket as soon as possible.  Clearly, Jacksonville will be effected, but were nervous to play more than a ½ unit without further research, so that’s why this was only a ½ unit play.  Please check our previous blog Insider Trading that covers the advantages Twitter can provide.

To recap our official 1★ positions: Atlanta -1.5, Cleveland/Cincinnati under 37, New York Giants -3, Carolina/Arizona under 37, Minnesota +9, Denver -2, Oakland/Denver under 40.5, Teaser of 2 Teams / 6 Points / +100 Pittsburgh +8.5/Cleveland -0.5.  Our ½ ★ position is Tennessee +3.