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Monday, September 26, 2011

Week 3 - Recap

A very successful week for us, and a good debut for our model.  The model went 10-6 and picked up 4.6 units.  For the week we went 14-9-1.  This runs our yearly total to 27-16, +11.8 units and a 18.14% return.  We'll run through the other games we regularly handicapped.  As always, don't forget to follow us @TheSportsMarket for in-game / halftime action and any late adds we had.

Cincy / NC St. under 63.5 - We got this on in-game betting at 5Dimes.  A big blowout often equals unders as the leading team tries to run the clock out.  We survived two quick TDs to cash this one.

BYU -2.5 - BYU didn't look very good for most of the game, but some late turnovers helped get us to the window.  It's not something we want to rely upon very often, but we'll take it.  We maybe looking to jump off the BYU bus, as their offense just doesn't seem able to produce anything.

Notre Dame -7 We've really had enough of this Irish team and their turnovers.  They seem to be able to move the ball, but shoot themselves in the foot way to often.  From now on we'll only be looking to fade them, and stick with our original thesis.

Eastern Michigan / Penn St. under 45 - This game played out very much how we thought.  Eastern Michigan did get a score and Penn St was able to push to over 30, but this one stayed under for us.

Texas A&M / OK St. under 70 - A very slow start by both teams (relatively) helped us get the under.  Texas A&M turnovers helped as well.  With a total this high the demands on scoring and scoring often are so high, any field goals instead of touchdowns can get you that under, and it did.

Colorado +17 @ Ohio St. - We don't think our assessment of the Buckeye's was that far off, but Colorado turnovers really aided the Buckeyes.  All but 3 of the Buckeye's points came when they started in Colorado territory.  It will be very interesting to see what happens next week with the return of Posey, Adams and Herron.

Some early week games we're looking at:

Utah St. +6.5 @ BYU
MN +19.5 @ MI
Toledo +7 @ Temple
W. MI +3 @ Conn.
KS +6 vs. Texas Tech
AL -3.5 @ FL
AZ St. -18 vs Oregon St.
Purdue +12.5 vs ND

In the NFL we played a 4 team round robin teaser.  3 of the 4 team covered, making us 3-3 on the day, for a complete wash.  This week we debut our NFL Model.

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