Week 4 - CFB Version and The Middler.

Earlier this week we retweeted some of our comments over the summer regarding the Nebraska Cornhuskers.  Both off-shore and Las Vegas books released their "Games of the Year" lines at various times.  These games being the Top 50 or 100 games that would draw the public's interest.  Wisconsin opened up as a 1.5 point favorite against Nebraska and we were able to scoop it up around -2.  The line eventually got to -3 before the season started and the game was taken down.  This week the game opened at 9.5, was but up to 10.5 and then bet back down tonight.  We're faced with a situation that present's a great middling opportunity.  

We did an in-depth analysis of middles regarding season win totals in our blog, "Outs - and We're Not Talking Baseball" and how you can get them by having different places to bet.  Our point in that blog was in quantifying what percentage's a middle would have to hit.  When playing a middle with -110 odds on both sides the odds are always the same, and you need to hit the middle at better than 5.00% to justify taking that position.    That is only one part of three step process.

In Step 2 we must quantify our current position's "market value."  In this instance we have already made the bet (not like when we were looking at two different win total lines and not having bet either yet), so that changes some things.  First, the "market value" of our current position.  Clearly, we have an advantage of having Wisconsin as a two point favorite rather than a nine point favorite.  What value is that, though?  If we were to estimate that each 1/2 point costs you 10 cents (-010) or a full point 20 cents (-020), you could argue that our current bet is worth +140  (7 points x 020 = 140).  Theoretically, someone would be willing to pay us +140 for our ticket.  If you incorporate that into what we've already risked (-110) + the current market value (-140) we're now basically risking -250  to win +100 that Wisconsin covers by -2.  This is very similar concept to the financial and accounting policy of "mark to market."  It takes an asset (in a financial case a business you own), values it and makes you carry it on your books at that value, even though you haven't sold the business yet.  Just like in this case we own an asset (WI -2), value it (-250 to win 100), and carry it on our books (understand what it is moving forward).

With all of that understood the question becomes when to hedge and go for a middle and why?  There's basically three reasons: 1) You feel the second bet (Nebraska +9) has value independent of you first bet, 2) You feel the middle will hit more than 5% of the time and that value outweighs the current market value of risking -250 to win +100 or 3) Risking -250 to win +100 is too high for your risk tolerance, and want to get off the position for a less risky position like a middle that risks -010 to win +200.

One other way to attack a middle is to middle part of your original bet.  It combines a bit of options 2 and 3.  Using our Wisconsin -2 example, let's say we bet $110 to win $100.  We may want to hedge part of it.  We would bet Nebraska +9 at $55 to win $50.  If the middle we're to hit we would win $150, if Wisconsin were to win by more than 9, we win win our original $100 minus our $55 on the Nebraska hedge for $45, however if Nebraska were to win or lose by two or less we would win our Nebraska hedge and $50, but lose our $110 on the original Wisconsin and losing $60.  We basically would be risking $60 to win $150 or $45.  If you assume a winning bet has a 50% chance of either being the middle or Wisconsin by 9 or more, we're risking $60 to win $97.50 ($150+$45 divided by 2) or +163 that Wisconsin wins by -2.

If you follow us on Twitter you'll notice we like to hedge with a second half bet that also provides value, bascially incorporating options 1 and 2 described above.  If we hedge other wise, we try and do it in the fashion in the previous paragraph.  If line gets driven to 10.5 we'll likely enact that scenario. 

On to our model play's we explained last week

2 ★

Spreads:

Arizona +12.5

Florida Atlantic +10

Kent St.-16

Mississippi St. +7

North Texas +23

Notre Dame -12

Penn St. -14.5

Toledo +8

Akron +8.5

Georgia Tech -9.5

Northwestern +10

Totals:

West Virginia / Bowling Green under 61

Georgia Tech / North Carolina St. under 63.5

Idaho / Virginia under 54

Nebraska / Wisconsin under 57

Auburn / South Carolina under 60

Washington St. / Colorado over 58.6

The following are our plays with a brief explanation:

1★

Utah St. +7.5 @ BYU - BYU has been less than impressive the last few weeks on offense.  Their final result last week looked good, but they got lucky with turnovers.  Utah St. has played both Auburn and Colorado St. tough and think they should give BYU a great effort as they are a "Big Brother" in their region. 

Alabama -3.5 @ Florida - The Swamp will be nothing new for the Crimson Tide.  We think Florida maybe a bit overrated having only played one decent team (at best) in Tennessee.  We think they're a bit overvalued when playing this Alabama team who's defense has been and most likely will continue to be dominating against a Florida offense that can struggle at times.

Michigan St. +3 @ Ohio St.  -  As we chronicled earlier in the week Colorado never forced Ohio St to drive more than 50 yards for a score.  Despite throwing for three touchdowns Braxton MIller was only 5 for 13.

Virginia Tech -6.5 vs Clemson Clemson off of two big wins, now have to play at Blacksburg as Tech opens conference play.  Good luck, something tells me the Hokies have been biding their time ready to unleash for this game.

As always don't forget to follow us on Twitter:@TheSportsMarket  for new game adds as the lines move, and halftimes.

Week 3 - Recap

A very successful week for us, and a good debut for our model.  The model went 10-6 and picked up 4.6 units.  For the week we went 14-9-1.  This runs our yearly total to 27-16, +11.8 units and a 18.14% return.  We'll run through the other games we regularly handicapped.  As always, don't forget to follow us @TheSportsMarket for in-game / halftime action and any late adds we had.

Cincy / NC St. under 63.5 - We got this on in-game betting at 5Dimes.  A big blowout often equals unders as the leading team tries to run the clock out.  We survived two quick TDs to cash this one.

BYU -2.5 - BYU didn't look very good for most of the game, but some late turnovers helped get us to the window.  It's not something we want to rely upon very often, but we'll take it.  We maybe looking to jump off the BYU bus, as their offense just doesn't seem able to produce anything.

Notre Dame -7 We've really had enough of this Irish team and their turnovers.  They seem to be able to move the ball, but shoot themselves in the foot way to often.  From now on we'll only be looking to fade them, and stick with our original thesis.

Eastern Michigan / Penn St. under 45 - This game played out very much how we thought.  Eastern Michigan did get a score and Penn St was able to push to over 30, but this one stayed under for us.

Texas A&M / OK St. under 70 - A very slow start by both teams (relatively) helped us get the under.  Texas A&M turnovers helped as well.  With a total this high the demands on scoring and scoring often are so high, any field goals instead of touchdowns can get you that under, and it did.

Colorado +17 @ Ohio St. - We don't think our assessment of the Buckeye's was that far off, but Colorado turnovers really aided the Buckeyes.  All but 3 of the Buckeye's points came when they started in Colorado territory.  It will be very interesting to see what happens next week with the return of Posey, Adams and Herron.

Some early week games we're looking at:

Utah St. +6.5 @ BYU
MN +19.5 @ MI
Toledo +7 @ Temple
W. MI +3 @ Conn.
KS +6 vs. Texas Tech
AL -3.5 @ FL
AZ St. -18 vs Oregon St.
Purdue +12.5 vs ND

In the NFL we played a 4 team round robin teaser.  3 of the 4 team covered, making us 3-3 on the day, for a complete wash.  This week we debut our NFL Model.

Week 3 - CFB Version and Model Debut

This week we debut our long awaited model.  Ok, maybe not that long awaited.  You’re probably longingly awaiting our NFL Model since so far our own handicapping hasn’t gone so well with the guys who get paid to play.  Either way, we’ll be upgrading our one-unit plays, as we are more confident in our model.

For those of you who listen to Chad Millman’s “Beyond The Bets” podcast (and for those of you who don’t, you should), you may have heard him comment on some “public bettors” in this week’s podcast.  He said, "There are starting to be two kinds of public bettors now. There are the public bettors who are a little more aggressive, and if they lived in Vegas and be doing this they'd be called wise guys, but they're lawyers or doctors or finance guys. They go to websites and are starting to make decisions based on the trends they're seeing and they're own algorithms for all we know. These are 10% of bettors, these middle ground, very tapped-in bettors, who don't live in Las Vegas, but take advantage of the information that’s out there.“  We like to think we fit into this category, being a finance professional and using algorithms. 

This is the basis of our model and our betting approach: In its simplest form, our model takes a team’s last three games, normalizes their performance for which teams they played vs. who they’re going to play utilizing various formulas and projects a score.  We’ve done this for every college football game since 2007, giving us enough data to find out which systems are profitable and which aren’t.  We’ve found the following criteria to be worthy of a 2 ★ or 2 unit play.  

1. Each individual year covers the spread at over 55% for all years observed (so you don’t play something that was 80% one year and 30% the next – we like consistency and predictability).
2. There have been at least 100 observations, so the percentages are statistically significant.

Now, you may be asking how we came upon these models or who built them, or did we hire a math genius who’s going to create the next Facebook, but built this instead?  The answer is none of the above.  This is what happens when you have finance professionals with too much time and excel skills on their hands who love sports.

Our model has been more successful based on the back testing with away teams, rather than home teams in terms of spreads.  These are the away teams at 2 ★we are taking this weekend. We may add a few more based on where they line moves and will tweet those Saturday via twitter @TheSportsMarket  

UAB +14 @ E. Carolina – 2 algorithms liked this position

Fresno St. -2.5 @ Idaho – 2 algorithms liked this position

LA-Lafayette +17 @ Florida International

Our model has been successful in predicting both overs and unders.  Our 2 ★ total positions we are taking this weekend.  Again we may add a few more positions depending on how lines move.

UCLA / Oregon St. under 50 – 2 algorithms liked this position

Arizona St. / Southern California under 54  – 2 algorithms liked this position

Ohio St. / Colorado under 45

Georgia / Ole Miss under 54

LA Tech / Miss St. under 59

Syracuse / Toledo under 54

South Carolina / Vanderbilt under 52

Temple / Maryland under 52.5

LA – Monroe / Iowa under 50.5

Rice / Baylor under 67

California / Washington over 58.5

Now our standard handicapping positions that are 1 ★:

BYU -2.5  We think BYU is very undervalued after a lackluster performance against rival Utah.  The score was deceptive with the Utes picking up over 30 points off of turnovers.  UCF really hasn’t played anyone, yet, and sneaked by FIU last week.  This is really a good spot for BYU to bounce back, at home in a nationally televised game.

Notre Dame -7 We didn’t get it tweeted out that we got this at 6.5 today, so we’ll officially list this at -7.  At 6.5 it was a 2 ★ play for us, but officially we’re going to try to keep the numbers here at where you can get them.  If it gets to 6.5, assume we added another unit because we did.  We like the Irish in this spot on the road, as their offense finally proved what it can do when it’s not shooting itself in the foot.   Pittsburgh barely snuck by Maine and blew a big lead against Iowa last week.  Their pass defense has been suspect all year, giving a great matchup for ND.

Eastern Michigan / Penn St. under 45  Both these offenses were born to struggle.  Penn St. is favored by 28.5 points in this game and one makes you think if Penn St. can even score 28 points.  Eastern Michigan was able to move the ball against Michigan last week, but we just don’t foresee them being able to do it against a Penn St. defense that allowed 10 to a pretty good Temple team and 27 to a very good Alabama team that capitalized on a bunch of turnovers.  First to 21 here is likely the victor.

Texas A&M / Oklahoma St. under 70 – We see Texas A&M utilizing their good running game to try and play keep away with Oklahoma St.  At home and favored we would think they can and will control their game.  Combine this with their great defense and we think this is almost a TD too high.

There’s one game we’re currently waiting on and that’s Colorado +16.5 @ Ohio St.   We have one more week to fade the Buckeyes before the return of Posey, Herron and Adams.  We just don’t think the oddsmakers have adjusted low enough on the Buckeyes.  Braxton Miller won’t make that much of a difference.  We’re waiting to see if this line hits 17, because it dropping to anything but 14.5 shouldn’t make that much of a difference.

Week 2 Recap - NFL Version

We bounced back this week going 3-1-1.  We picked up 1.9 units.  We made a dent in the hole from Week 1, and hope to continue our push back to the positive side.  For the season we're now 5-8, with a loss of 3.7 units, and a -25.87% return.  This is how we got there.

Cleveland -1  This game played out, about how we thought.  Its amazing the difference a decent punter and attempting to cover receivers makes.  We're not sure we can still back the Browns this week, though.  Miami's poor performance's against good teams in their first two weeks, could leave them undervalued.

Tampa Bay +3  A late rally by the Buccaneers got us a cover.  We were nervous throughout the game, but the late rally pushed us across and to the window when we thought we were looking at a push.

Seattle / Pittsburgh under 17.5 2H - We tweeted this play out via our handle @TheSportsMarket.  A solid theory on second halves is in blow-out games the team winning will run the ball.  If the opposite team is bad, they'll struggle to score.  Therefore in games with double digit spreads, when the favorite is covering at half time.  Look to play the under in the second half.  Especially if the team leading starts the second half with the ball.

Dallas -3 Tony Romo's injury almost gave us a loss and his return got us a push in overtime, as he led his team back with an overtime victory.  They did get the ball down to the one yard line and took the easy field goal.  We obviously would have loved the Cowboys to push a TD through, but there's a reason 3 is the keyest of numbers in football.  This was a prime example of making sure you pay attention to which side of 3, you end up on.

Cincinnati / Denver under 41 The Bengals may just be better than we thought.  Two Bronco turnovers led to short fields for the Bengals, which ended up being the difference in getting to the window.  Totals have been tough all year.  The scoring has been historically high.  We're likely to lay off the totals until we begin instituting our models in two weeks.

Here's some early week games we may move on:

Detroit -3.5 @ Minnesota - we would love if it gets to 3.  We just highly doubt it does.  We'll have to be  extra sure with a number like this.
Green Bay -3.5 @ Chicago - same as above
Pittsburgh -10.5 @ Indianapolis


  

Week 2 Recap - CFB Version

Another solid week for us on Saturdays.  We went 6-3, and picked up an additional 2.2 Units.  This drives our annual totals to 13-7, 5.4 units, and a 25.71% return.  This is how we did in each matchup.

Mississippi St. +4 - LSU is good, really good - especially their defense.  Their ability to shut down the Bulldog offense never let the crowd get into the game as we hoped and we were handed an early loss.

Boise St. -19.5 - Just after we thought a backdoor cover would get us, Boise State's second team drove down the field with the running game and punched one last touchdown in for a cover.  The line was pretty sharp and we may have got a bit lucky.

Washington +17 - We considered a hedge at halftime that would have gotten us a middle, but passed.  A rough first start to the half had us worried with the Huskies, but a solid 4th quarter allowed us to get to the window.

Arizona +10 - Stanford did better on the road than we thought.  We may have to go back to looking at fading Arizona, but dont want to overreact.  Despite moving the ball from time to time, they've really struggled to get points.  The Wildcat defense, surely leaves much to be desired.

Navy +16 Navy nearly pulled an upset.  South Carolina has struggled to do anything outside of Marcus Lattimore's rushing.  We're slightly disappointed we didn't up grade this to a two unit play.  The Midshipmen will likely continue to be a live dog all season.

Utah/BYU under 46 - Can we pretend this game didn't happen and move on?  Needless to say, we were way off on this one and the Cougar turnovers certainly didn't help us.  The Cougs will be a team we're likely to look at because so many turnovers may lead the market to overreact to this result and give us value.

Miami -2.5:  This game played out almost exactly as we thought.  Our only regret was not firing on the correlated parlay.  We were able to make up an extra 1/2 unit by playing the 2nd half under.  Ohio St. will likely struggle much of the year.  This was a sad and unmitigated disaster is South Florida for the Buckeyes.

Miami/Ohio St. under 21.5 2H - We tweeted this play out at half time.  Follow us @TheSportsMarket for our 2H plays and anything that doesn't make it into the blog on Saturday morning.

Clemson -3  We tweeted this play out Saturday morning.  Despite a slow start, the Clemson offense took of after the first quarter and got us to the window.

Later this week we'll release our positions that utilize old-fashioned handicapping and our upgraded positions based on our financial models.  We'll also describe them a bit more for you.  For now, here's some early week leans.

BYU +3 vs. Central Florida
San Diego St. +10.5 @ Michigan
San Diego St. / Michigan under 60.5
Va Tech -20.5 @ Marshall
Arkansa +11.5 @ Alabama
Southern Miss. +3 @ Virginia
Missouri +22.5 @ Oklahoma
Oklahoma St. / TXAM under 69.5
Colorado/Ohio St. under 44

Week 2 - NFL Version

We’re treading a bit lighter this week after the bath we took last week.  We’re hoping we learned something from the games we watched.  We’ll also quickly run through each game for our “Unofficial Line Picks for Shits and Giggles” in our next post sometime Saturday or Early Sunday.

Cleveland @ Indianapolis

Our Position: Cleveland -1 -120

Some people are very down on the Browns after their loss to Cincinnati last week.  The Browns outside of a few plays on defense and some poor special teams probably should have won.  Due to poor punting, the Bengals started 3 of their first four drives just a first down outside of field goal range and took a quick 13-0 lead.  Cleveland after battling through penalties rallied to a 17-13 lead before having a mental lapses and giving up an easy TD.  They later sold out and gave up a long run to Cedric Benson.  We think people are overreacting to the loss and feel as if the Browns almost handed Cincinnati 20 points and the mistakes they made are easily correctable.  Indianapolis looks like a mess without Peyton Manning and beyond that their defense looks to be struggling, too.  We think the Browns are a little undervalued here and take a position.

Tampa Bay @ Minnesota

Our Position: Tampa +3

We got a little lucky with Minnesota last week and were possibly dead wrong about Donovan McNabb.  We don’t want to overreact to Minnesota’s performance, nor do we want to with Tampa.  Going into this season we saw Tampa as a better team than Minnesota and despite losing to Detroit we see no reason why they’re still not the better team.  This line implies these two teams are even or Tampa is slightly better on a neutral field.  We disagree and will take Tampa.

Dallas @ San Francisco

Our Position: Dallas -3

The focus most of this week was on Tony Romo choking in the last quarter against the New York Jets.  What was lost was Romo’s ability to move the ball through the air against a good defense and the Dallas defense shutting down a fairly strong Jet running game.  San Fran was only able to tally 209 yards against a bad Seattle team and we’re actually out gained by the Seahawks.  If it wasn’t for the 49er special teams and Seattle turnovers this game would have been much closer.  We think Dallas goes on the road against a team far more inferior than the Jets and wins by a touchdown or more. 

Much like some of our college football positions, this next play is something we’ll wait on in the hopes the public drives the total up.  We’ll confirm it via Twitter on Sunday or if they line gets high enough between now and then.

Cincinnati @ Denver

Our Position: Cincinnati / Denver under 40

The Bengal defense actually played well against the Browns last week.  It’s certainly above average.  Meanwhile, outside of being handed field position and two big plays the Bengal offense struggled to move the ball against a sub-par Cleveland defense.  While Denver’s defense struggled against the run, Cincinnati proved last week they are not a high potent offense.  Denver’s offensive line on Monday night struggled mightily and we see no reason why this wouldn’t continue against a good Bengal defense.  The Oakland / Denver game went a field goal over the lined total of 40 last week, but needed a 63 yard field goal and a special teams TD to do it.  We don’t see Denver’s offense picking it up or Cincinnati’s being as good as Oakland’s.  We were very tempted to take Cincinnati and the points, but the line has dropped so far it’s probably about right at this point.  We should have got it earlier, but now will pass and just play the total

Week 2 - CFB Version

Louisiana State’s defense is for real.  Mississippi St. did everything they could, but it was almost impossible to move the ball on that defense.  We still buy the theory on Thursday nights, but can’t hit them all, on to the rest of our action.

1★ Positions:

Boise St. -20:  Feel free to call us square here, but we really like Boise St.  Some people have postulated that Toledo could keep it close after a nice performance at Ohio St. where they almost won the game.  While we think Toledo is a solid MAC school and bowl team, the Broncos are a step-up from the depleted Buckeyes.  We think they’re may be a bit of a letdown factor with Toledo almost taking out their in state “Big Brother.”  The Rockets knew they were coming home for a second big game, but we think t hey may have trouble getting up for the Broncos after likely dumping everything they had into the Buckeye game.  On the Bronco side of the ledger, Kellen Moore is not Joe Bauserman.  Bauserman missed open receivers left and right, and Kellen Moor is one of the most accurate quarterbacks in college football.  Combine that with the Bronco’s underrated defense and their knack for running up the score and we see value with the Broncos.

Miami -2.5:  Speaking of Mr. Bauserman, he’s not very good.  It appeared sometimes he thought receivers’ hands were attached to their ankles.  There’s been a lot of talk on if/when Braxton Miller should play against Miami.  Although he may get in, we don’t really trust him.  A freshman on the road, at night is not a situation we want to be in, even if playing in Miami isn’t like playing at Camp Randall or The Big House.  We continue to think the Buckeye’s will struggle offensively until Dan “Boom” Herron, Devier Posey and offensive lineman Mike Adams return.  There’s just too much pressure being put on the quarterbacks of the Buckeyes to carry the team, which we think they can’t handle.  The main reason or excuse we’re hearing around Ohio that the Buckeyes can go into Miami and take one is Jacory Harris and his turnovers.  Although he has, in the past been a turnover machine, turnovers are not something we’re going to bank on when handicapping. 

We also see value in a correlated parlay of Miami and the under based on Ohio St.’s offense struggling.  We see the total at 46, but will wait until game time. A night ESPN game will probably allow public bettors to push the total up.  If we can get Miami at -3 or less and the total at 47 (or maybe even 48) we’ll be playing the correlated parlay for a ½ unit.  We’ll tweet this out game day if the opportunity presents itself.

BYU/Utah under 46: You actually can get this at 46.5, now.  If it rises to 47.5 or 48 we’ll be adding another unit to this play.  BYU’s defense has really controlled the game in their first two matchups and we don’t see why this wouldn’t continue.  They Cougar defense is allowing only 3.2 yards per rush and 5.6 yards per pass attempt.  These numbers aren’t largely skewed by beating up on cupcakes.  Neither Ole Miss or Texas are BCS teams, but they’re not a Sun Belt for FCS school either.  BYU’s offense has been, well how could we put this, okay.  They’ve struggled mightily to run the ball and Jake Heaps hasn’t been as stellar as some would hope with 2 TDs and 3 INTs.  Utah meanwhile has done decent running the ball, but struggled in the passing game.  They’re having a bit of trouble familiarizing themselves with Norm Chow’s offense.  They’re averaging less than 5 yards per attempt and those stats include the game against Montana St.  We really see this as a low scoring game.  It’s a big rivalry and both teams may take some time to feel each other out.  We would be surprised if more than one team got into the 20s.

Washington +17: Nebraska has been less than impressive so far this year.  Taylor Martinez can be flashy, but he’s struggled here and there.  Martinez has accounted for almost 80% of the Husker offense.  Their young offensive line has struggled at times leading to inconsistencies.  Nebraska has relied heavily on the big play, leading to the afore mentioned inconsistency when they can’t produce them.  Washington’s new quarterback, Keith Price has acquitted himself well so far with 7TDs and only 1 interception.  Washington has proved in the past they can run the ball against the Blackshirts with Chris Polk.  Polk ran for 177 yards in the bowl game against Nebraska last year, and is averaging over 100 yards in their first two games.  Meanwhile, the vaunted Blackshirts of Nebraska are bordering on possibly being overrated after surrendering over 400 yards and 29 points to Fresno St. at home.  Seventeen points just seems too high here.  If Washington can contain Martinez and move the ball themselves they should have no problem staying within two touchdowns of the Huskers. This game has the potential with Nebraska being a big public team to go to 17.5, however this was at 16.5 at one point this week so we’ll take Washington at 17, just in case it came back to 16.5.

These next three games are positions we’re likely to take, however we feel the number could go up before kickoff, so we’re waiting.  We’ll tweet out on Saturday if we officially move on them, but we expect Navy to possibly go to 17 or higher, Tennessee to go back to 10 and Arizona to go back to 10.

Navy +16.5 (will confirm via Twitter at hopefully 17 or higher): South Carolina’s offense has been less than impressive.  Stephen Garcia is completing less than 50% of his passes and has as many TDs as interceptions.  They’ve relied heavily on turnovers to capitalize in their last two games.  Navy is one of the most disciplined teams in the country and are unlikely to turn it over often.  Part of this is their non-traditional offense where they run the ball as much if not more than any other team in the nation.  Additionally, this could allow them to keep the ball away from South Carolina.  Navy is heading into a major step-up in completion, but taking the points here in a game where Navy can grind the ball and play keep away makes sense to us.  This feels more like a two touchdown game rather than a seventeen point game.

Tennessee +9.5 (will confirm via Twitter at hopefully 10 or higher): Tyler Bray has looked good in the Vols first two games including against Cincinnati, who has fallen off over the last two years, but certainly not on the same level of Florida’s first two opponents, UAB and Florida Atlantic.  We felt Florida was a bit overrated coming into this year and think this their first real challenge, and is the right place to exploit it.

Arizona +9.5 (will confirm via Twitter at hopefully 10 or higher): After getting blown out last Thursday Arizona is likely one of the least liked teams in the Sports Market.  They’re currently getting ready to play one of the more public teams in the market in Stanford.  Most people are very high on Stanford because of Andrew Luck, but he does not have the same team he had around him last year.  They’ve yet to really play anyone and have little at receiver and on their offensive line.  Mike Stoops is 10-1 against the spread at home against ranked teams, so he knows how to get his teams ready to play.  This is the least confident of the three positions we think will move, so we won’t play it unless it does move.  The only way we play this at 9 or 9.5 is if Juron Criner is confirmed to be playing.  

Thursday September 15, 2011 College Football

1★Position Mississippi St. +4:  As we stated before, all year we would be looking for spots to play the home team on Thursday night.  After initially leaning LSU we've come around to take Mississippi St. with much of that coming on the heels of the line move.  Getting off the key number of 3 and Miss St. at 4 was one major reason of taking the Bulldogs.  Additionally, not only is this a home game for Miss St. its their first home game.  There should be a raucous crowd after classes were suspended today for the game, and the Bulldogs should be giving their best effort.  We were very encouraged by their long sustained drives and how much they out gained Auburn last week on the road.  LSU could not be more highly regarded in the market right now, which is what probably pushed this number off of 3, and what would have been a no play, to a 4 for us.  We'll attempt to use the market perception of the Tigers against them tonight.  For people who like trends Les Miles is only 15-31-4 ATS in conference.

Week 1 Recap - NFL Version

Looking back at this past weekend, we could not have been more wrong.  We had a theory about how the Lockout would effect the first few weeks of the season and it would appear we're a bit off.  Overs cashed at a high rate (12-3-1) as clearly defenses were not ahead of the offenses like we expected.  We went 2-7 and lost 6.2 units for a 66% loss.  This is one of only seventeen weeks so we're not going to over react and try to dig it all out in one day or week.  In all likelihood we maybe even more selective until we get a better handle on where this season is going.  The only positive was we beat the closing line on a consistent basis, getting "the best" part of the side we wanted.  This didn't help us out, but over the long haul beating the closing number is going to always be a key to successfully beating the market.    Where we went wrong this week:

Atlanta -1.5:  Turnovers really hurt the Falcons in the game.  They turned it over three times to Chicago's one.  They had much more success than Chicago on the ground and had they not turned the ball over so much and been able to rely more on the running game we might have had a different result.  The Falcons also struggled to defend the pass more than we thought.  It will be interesting to see where both these teams go moving forward.

Cleveland / Cincinnati under 37:  We can attribute a loss here to many a bone-headed play by the Browns.  They quickly went down 13 points due to some poor special teams and punting.  Cincinnati started three of their first four drives barely outside of FG range starting at the Cleveland 41, 41 and 38 yard lines.  Neither team looked very crisp on offense, averaging less than 6 yards per pass attempt and under 4.5 per rush.  Cincincinnati's averages were inflated by two big plays at the end of the game when the Browns fell asleep at the wheel.  We already indicated we're on the Browns in Week 2 at Indy as the elimination of just a few mental mistakes and Cincinnati likely wouldn't have scored 17 points let alone 27 points.

New York Giants -3: As we indicated, we grabbed this line before the rash of injuries to the Giants thinking we were ahead of the market.  We probably should have bought back on the Redskins and just taken a loss on the vigorish.  Clearly, the Giants depleted defense could not stay with the Redskins.

Carolina / Arizona under 37: We'll have to look at these teams moving forward more for their defenses than their offenses.  The amount of yardage given up by both teams is something we'll have to look at and remember moving forward.  These will likely be two "stay away" teams until we get a better handle on just how good their offenses are.

Minnesota +9: Finally, a winner.  Frankly, you could argue we were a little right and a little lucky.  Minnesota looked like crap for most of the game and without a special teams touchdown from Percy Harvin we wouldn't have covered.  Not exactly benefiting from a late backdoor cover, but Minnesota certainly wasn't impressive and we were a little off on Donovan McNabb being better than some expected.  Fortunately, we were correct with San Diego coming out flat and being slightly overvalued.

Oakland / Denver under 40.5 and Denver -2:  We overrated Denver, and their defense.  The Broncos had many missed tackles in the run game.  They had no running game to speak of themselves and their offense was manhandled much of the game.  Thankfully, (or not so thankfully) Oakland committed enough boneheaded penalties to keep Denver in the game.  A relaxed defense and a special teams touchdown were the only reason Denver scored two touchdowns.  Oakland's 15 penalties for 131 yards were just enough of a tease to keep Denver close and allow them to score enough to go over the total.  Not a good result for us.  

Pittsburgh / Cleveland Teaser: We already covered Cleveland's issues.  Pittsburgh had 7 turnovers.  That will always do you in.  Hopefully, Big Ben realizes Ed Reed wears purple by now.  It will be interesting to see what Pittsburgh does going forward.  Likely, another "stay away" team until we see if this defense is as they showed.

Tennessee +3:  We were able to win this 1/2 unit play by beating the closing number and firing quickly after the David Garrard news.  The TN offense appeared to be more stifled than we thought and Luke McCown did not look as bad as we thought.  Luckily, we got the best of the number here.

We'll be looking to improve in Week 2 and are considering the following:

Cleveland -1 (already taken)

Dallas -3

Tampa Bay +3

Buffalo -3.5

Cincinnati +5.5

Cincinnati / Denver under 40 (we'll wait till Sunday if we move on this as I think this total could get bet up)

Week 1 Recap - CFB Version

We were able to have a very successful week in our college football positions.  We went 4-1 and won 3.9 units for about a 70% return.  This brings our college football record for the year to 7-4, +4.15 units and a 36% return.  Certainly that return % is unsustainable, but we won't complain.  A quick run through how we did.

Oklahoma St. -13.5: The Cowboys put up 37 points which is a little low for them, however Arizona had a difficult time staying with Oklahoma St.  Oklahoma St. ground game proved to be the difference.  Arizona ran up almost 400 yards throwing, but couldn't get anything going in the run game.  We had a nice relaxing cover.

Wisconsin -21 vs. Oregon St.: The Badger offense is going to be scary good all year.  The Wisconsin ground game and another stellar game from Russell Wilson gave Wisconsin 35 points.  Oregon St.'s running back injuries proved to be too much as they could only gain 25 yards on the ground and were behind much of the game.  The Badger defense bounced back after a less than stellar performance against UNLV to pitch a shutout.  

Utah +9 @ Southern Califonria: In what ended up being one of the craziest games of the night Southern Cal blocked a fg attempt in the last seconds that would have tied the game.  The Trojans recovered the block and returned it for an apparent TD, however an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty wiped out that touchdown.  Later in the evening the PAC-12 overruled the officiating crew that eliminated the TD making the final 23-16.  However, most sportsbooks do not honor protests or overturned decisions.  Todd Furhman who runs the Caesar's Sportsbook tweeted out, "We do not recognize defaults prior to the start of the event, suspended games, protests, or overturned decisions for wagering purposes."  Individual books have their own rules, however you should have at a minimum earned a push.  Some books even paid both sides of the wager.  

UNLV +14 @ Washington St.:  Ok, Washington St.  We see you, we respect you.  We get it.  We're glad betting against you got you motivated.  UNLV, your defense is horrible.  

Brigham Young +7 @ Texas: As we thought, these teams were fairly even.  Had BYU been more successful in the red zone they may have won this game out right.  It appears Garrett Gilbert is out as Texas' quarterback and there may be some animosity there moving forward.  Something we'll continue to watch.  

Here are the games that are on our initial list that we'll be looking deeper at:

LSU -3

Eastern Michigan +29

Kansas +14

Washington +17.5

Navy +18

Arizona St. -1.5

Utah +6

Oklahoma St. -14

Arizona +10

Panic In The Markets - Don't Overreact To The First Game

We move on to Week 1 of the football season and our college football card for this weekend.  We feel the key here is not overreacting to something you saw last week. 

The best comparison we can make to an overreaction to a team’s second game is the overreaction in the market place to what the Down Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 or other stock indexes may do in a certain day.  How often (if you follow financial news) have you seen huge reaction to a large drop in an index in one day?  Alarmist reporting, world coming to the end scenario articles, etc. never seem to play out.  If you’re like most investors with retirement savings in a 401K or a college fund for junior, these ebbs and flows really shouldn’t affect you.  If they do, you should be putting your savings in a different asset class – high daily, weekly, or monthly volatility really only effects short-term investors. 

We here at The Sports Market aren’t that type of sports investor.  We attempt to do our fundamentals and grind out a profitable return over the long haul.  You won’t see us overreact to one bad day or week here (it’s called variance), nor will you see us quote our record over the last 7 or 10 plays, or offer any 500★ stone cold locks to rally your bankroll.  We grind our return out in a conservative approach that aims to win over a season, a year and hopefully into the forseeable future.   

With that being said, we won’t be overreacting and steaming Stanford and Michigan with our full bankrolls this week.  You could argue we’re doing this with our Wisconsin position, however we feel this has more to do with travel, the quarterback situation and a running-back injury to Oregon St., rather than just thinking “Oregon St. got beat by Sacramento St.” 

After cashing in on Oklahoma St. last night we’ve rounded out the rest of our card.  The first two we tweeted out earlier in the week and now provide a full explanation along with a few other positions.

1★ Positions:

Wisconsin -21 vs. Oregon St.: We tweeted this play out earlier in the week and it has subsequently dropped.  This could be the square side here, but we like the Badgers.  Their offense was spectacular last weekend.  Their defense did leave a bit to be desired.  Oregon St will be travelling across the country to meet the Badgers.  They lost last week at home to Sacramento St. and although we don’t expect performances that poor to continue, it’s a tall order to bounce back at Camp Randall in a morning game for a West Coast team. 

You could also argue Oregon St. is in a bit of disarray.  Not only did they lose to Sac St. last week, but they’re looking to rebound amid a quarterback controversy.  Starter Ryan Katz who struggled greatly last week (11/22 – 87yds – 0 TD – 1 INT) will split time with red-shirt freshman Sean Mannion.  The Beavers relied heavily on the one successful part of their offense last week, the running game.  Sadly, leading rusher Malcolm Agnew is out with a bad hamstring.  Oregon St. going cross country, amidst turmoil and without the one reliable part of their offense will prevent them from staying with this potent Badger offense.

Utah +9 @ Southern Califonria: This line is down to 8.5 in some places after opening at 10.5.  Southern California looked less than spectacular last week in staving off a Minnesota team that will be near the basement of the Big 10 this year.  Although they out gained the Gophers, USC had less yards per pass attempt and yards per rush than Minnesota.  We think Utah will pose a more difficult challenge for the Trojans.  The Utes were very successful on the ground, while struggling a bit through the air.  You have to think Norm Chow returning to USC will make the Utes very motivated.  This line feels almost a TD too high for us.  Had we been able to get on the other side of 10, we likely would have upgraded this to a 2 ★ position.

UNLV +14 @ Washington St.:  UNLV showed us something last weekend.  They moved the ball a bit against Wisconsin in a tough environment.  Washington St.’s environment won’t be nearly as difficult, nor will their offense.  Washington St. has been one of the worse teams for the better part of the last 5 years.  While we know you can probably add UNLV to that category as well, how either team would be a 14 point favorite is beyond us.  Washington St. has won 5 games in the past 3 years, and hasn’t been a favorite against an FBS school since 2007.  Until they prove they can beat anyone on a regular basis, let alone win by double digits – we’ll take the points.

Brigham Young +7 @ Texas: BYU Quarterback Jake Heaps came on at the end of last year for the Cougars as they won 4 of their last 5 and blew UTEP out in their Bowl Game.  In addition to having Heaps back, they also return 4 starters on their offensive line and their running back.  On the opposite side of the ball their defensive line dominated Ole Miss allowing only 64 yards rushing.  As Texas installs a new offense we see these teams as fairly equal and think taking the points is a good position.  

Thursday September 8, 2011 College Football

1★ Play - Oklahoma St. -13.5: We tweeted this play yesterday when we saw Juron Criner, Arizona' All-PAC 10 Wide Receiver was ruled out with an illness.  First we started looking at Oklahoma St. based on a trend that @beyondthebets (great follow and blog) uncovered over the summer.  In ESPN's Thursday Night game, home teams are 47 - 27 against the spread.  This makes sense and isn't random, the team and crowd will be pumped up for a game on National TV when no other games are on.  We filed this away as something to look into each week this season.  This game features a rematch of last season's Alamo Bowl in which Oklahoma St. blew out Arizona.  Arizona may have the revenge factor here, but going on the road on National TV is something we think will easily be neutralized.  Oklahoma St. bringing back both QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon gives them an edge.  Oklahoma St. took down Louisiana-Lafayette by 27 in the opener, but gave up most of the points in the second half.  Weeden also threw 3 interceptions which we don't see happening again.  The inexperienced Arizona defense will have a hard time controlling Weeden and Blackmon.  This was initially a lean of ours, but with the injury news on Criner, we just don't see them having the ability to stay with Oklahoma St. and take a position on them.


We'll back tomorrow to go through the rest of our CFB Card.

NFL Every (Rest Of) Game on The Board

Below are our remaining “Unofficial Line Picks for Shits and Giggles” along with the opening and current lines so you can see if you’re getting “the best of it.”  These are the games we didn't have any official position on.  You can find our official positions here.  Again, we aren’t backing these positions with our own money, but its good to at least look at every game on the board.

New Orleans @ Green Bay

Opening Line: Green Bay -5

Current Line: Green Bay -4.5

Unofficial Line Pick for S&G: Green Bay-4.5

The defending Super Bowl Champs are undefeated in the NFL Kickoff Game.  The line is a little too high for us to back the Saints, but we don’t want to go against that trend.

Detroit @ Tampa Bay

Opening Line: Tampa Bay -3

Current Line: Tampa Bay -1

Unofficial Line Pick for S&G: Tampa Bay -1

This game feels like a toss-up to us, but we’d rather back the home team against a team that may have a just weee bit too much hype.

Buffalo @ Kansas City

Opening Line: Kansas City -6.5

Current Line: Kansas City -6

Unofficial Line Pick for S&G: Buffalo +6

Some of this line movement is due to Matt Cassell’s injured ribs.  Having injured our ribs in the past we’ll take Buffalo.  That injury doesn’t go away quick.  Also, Ryan Fitzpatrick is a bit underrated in our opinion.

Indianapolis @ Houston

Opening Line: Indianapolis -1

Current Line: Houston -9

Unofficial Line Pick for S&G: Houston -9

Hmmm, why did this line move?  Some Manning guy?  We’re not backing Houston as we have no clue how Indy will respond, but certainly wouldn’t back them either.

Philadelphia @ St. Louis

Opening Line: Philadelphia -4.5

Current Line: Philadelphia -4.5

Unofficial Line Pick for S&G: St. Louis +4.5

We saw this line hit 5.5 at one point this summer and are hearing Philadelphia (unsurprisingly) is receiving a lot of love from the public.  If this line is somehow driven up to a touchdown, look for us to play the Rams.  Assuming that’s the case we’ll release the play on Twitter along with where we able to get down on the Rams getting a touchdown.

Seattle @ San Francisco

Opening Line: San Fran -6.5

Current Line: San Fran -5.5

Unofficial Line Pick for S&G: San Fran -5.5

I have absolutely no idea how either of these teams will perform.  Both of their quarterback situations are a mess and both weren’t very good last year.  I’d rather not back Tavaris Jackson or Charlie Whitehurst on the road, though.

Dallas @ New York Jets

Opening Line: New York Jets -4

Current Line: New York Jets -4

Unofficial Line Pick for S&G: New York Jets -4

Another sharp line in our opinion, but if we’re just picking we’d like to root for New York on 9/11’s 10^th Anniversary.

New England @ Miami (Monday Night)

Opening Line: New England -3.5

Current Line: New England -7

Unofficial Line Pick for S&G: New England -7

For the last game we leave you with the perfect example of buying high on a Week 1 game.  We would have loved to have taken New England at 3.5, 4, or even 6.  However, at this time the line has been pushed just too high.  We wish we would have had our act together earlier in the summer and been able to get down on this at the opening line.  Sadly, we didn’t and now can’t justify laying 7 with our own money when we could have a lot better lines.

Buying High

Today marks the beginning of the NFL season.  Now that the owners and players have figured out how to split more money then we’ll see in a lifetime, we can get back to football.  Despite the labor unrest over the summer, lines for this first week were posted as early as April.  You can view them here via @ViewFromVegas

Obviously, much has changed in the NFL.  Free agency, injuries, and preseason performances, have all changed people’s view of various teams, which has caused some line movement.  However, with the availability and the amount of time people have had to bet into these lines, they have been rounded out to essentially sharp, market lines. 

In equity markets, the idea is to buy equity stocks low and sell them high.  Buy when they’re undervalued and sell when they begin to reach an over-valued level.  Attempting to bet into these Week 1 lines is essentially doing the opposite of this.  For the most part much of the value in these lines has been extracted.  Trying to bet into a line on this Sunday (or Thursday) morning is like buying a stock at its peak.  Therefore, you have to be doubly sure you perceive the current line as having value before taking a position. 

First we’ll go through the positions we’re taking this weekend with some of the lines having being taken earlier in the summer which helped us (sorry if you still can’t get them at those numbers).  For each game we’ll also show the opening line to help reinforce how things have changed in the past five months and why things are much sharper by now.  We’ll also give a “pick” for each game for shits and giggles sake (if we haven’t already taken a position), but please know we will not be backing those with our own money.  Only the official 1★ positions have 1 unit of our money backing them.  Like college football we tend to rely on model based picks which we will begin releasing at higher units in Week 4.

1★ Plays:

Atlanta @ Chicago:

Our Position: Atlanta -1.5

Opening Line: Chicago +1

Current Line: Atlanta -3

This season we see Chicago regressing to the mean, as we could argue they were the league’s “luckiest” team last year.  They were able to take advantage of a weak schedule and an unsustainable record (7-3) in games decided by a TD or less.  Atlanta improved their team after a 13-3 season last year.  While that record may be unsustainable we feel they are closer to a 13-3 team than the Bears were to their record.  Even if their record doesn’t show it this year, the additions of Ray Edwards and Julio Jones should make Atlanta a better team.  We would not play Atlanta by more than a -3 pt favorite, but would play this if you could get it at -2.5.

Cincinnati @ Cleveland

Our Position: Cleveland / Cincinnati under 37

Opening Line: Cleveland -3

Current Line: Cleveland -6.5

Unofficial Line Pick for S&G: Cleveland -6.5

The line movement here is very much based on the “retirement” of Carson Palmer and the performance (or lack thereof) of Andy Dalton.  We viewed taking Cleveland -3 as a very sharp position, however were not able to get down at that number.  We also view the current line of Cleveland -6.5 as a very sharp line.  For the shits and giggles portion we would take the Browns, but again view the line as very sharp (which will be discussed later on). 

The first week of the NFL season often sees many unders as teams shake off the rust.  This is something that was only exacerbated by this year’s lockout.  Our position on the under 37 reflects the same opinion the market has had of Cincinnati’s offense.  A rookie without a full off-season is likely to struggle in the first week.  The lockout also put the Browns at a disadvantage.  Colt McCoy is in his second season at Quarterback and Pat Shurmur is a rookie coach installing a new offense.  One would have to think there will be plenty of rust and miscues on the offensive side of the ball for both teams.  Cincinnati does have an above average defense that also returns its defensive coordinator to provide some consistency.  Both teams will likely try and control the game by running the ball.  The lack of continuity in the off-season with both teams, two young quarterbacks, an average Cleveland defense and above average Cincinnati defense lead to our under play here.

New York Giants @ Washington

Our Position: New York Giants -3

Opening Line: New York Giants -3

Current Line: New York Giants -3

This is a line that has moved a little, but not much throughout the off-season.  Much of this can be attributed to the fact there has been a lot of continuity with both teams.  The Redskins did not (for once) go crazy in free agency.  Both have returning coaches and front offices.  There was some question as to who the Redskin quarterback would be (Rex Grossman will be starting), but outside of that and the addition of Tim Hightower, not much changed with the Redskins.  When they did not pick up a quarterback in free agency, the line ticked up to 3.5.  When the Giants experienced a rash of injuries on their defense, the line ticked back to 3.  Despite Tim Hightower’s solid performance we don’t see Washington having improved much (especially on offense) from last year.  The Giants may have a ton of injuries on defense, but a lack of talent at the skill positions on offense for the Redskins lead us to back the Giants.

Carolina @ Arizona

Our Position: Carolina / Arizona under 37

Opening Line: Arizona -3

Current Line: Arizona -7

Unofficial Line Pick for S&G: Carolina +7

Much of this line change came from Arizona’s addition of Kevin Kolb at Quarterback.  We don’t necessarily agree with this large uptick, as to us Kolb is unproven in a new system, with little time to work with new teammates and coaches.  However, Carolina starting a rookie quarterback who looked terrible in pre-season after being the worst team in the NFL leads us to pass on taking an official position on Carolina.  Instead we believe the factors that will affect both of these offenses will lead to a low-scoring game and took a position on the under.  

Minnesota @ San Diego

Our Position: Minnesota +9

Opening Line: San Diego -10.5

Current Line: San Diego -9

Although we were unable to get the best of the line at 10.5 we still feel there is value on Minnesota.  San Diego is often the darling of the off-season, yet historically they have fallen flat in September.  The Chargers under Norv Turner are 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in Week 1 and 4-8-1 ATS in September.  In Norv Turner’s career he is 4-11-2 ATS Week 1 and 14-21-1 ATS in September. 

This may sound strange, but we also feel Donovan McNabb may be a bit underrated this year.  With little or no talent around him last year in Washington, combining with a tumultuous relationship with Mike Shannahan, his poor play could be somewhat explained.  We think his play will be improved this year, even if it’s not up to his former All-Pro level.  Additionally, Brett Favre quietly had a terrible year last year with the highest interception rate of his career.  We won’t even go into the struggles of Tavaris Jackson when Mr. Wrangler Jeans wasn’t playing.  Meanwhile, McNabb has the 3^rd best interception rate for a career in NFL history.  We think the Vikings will be undervalued much of the early part of the year and will look to play them.  In a matchup against an often overvalued San Diego squad, this is one of those spots.

Oakland @ Denver (Monday Night)

Our Positions: Denver -2 and Oakland / Denver under 40.5

Opening Line: Denver -1.5

Current Line: Denver -3

We’re taking Denver mostly as a play against Oakland.  They had a terrible off-season losing their coach the players were supporting (Tom Cable), perhaps the NFL’s best corner (Namdi Assomugha) and some of their best offensive players outside of Darren McFadden (Zach Miller and Robert Gallery).  They also looked fairly awful in the pre-season, managing one TD in four games when most of the starters were playing in the first half.  We also think Denver’s defense will be much improved with John Fox a defensive-minded head coach coming in, the return of Elvis Dumervil and first round pick Von Miller at linebacker.  This game combines teams with two new coaches and two quarterback situations that fluctuated throughout training camp and the pre-season, an improved defense in Denver, and an inept offense in Oakland.  This is why we’ve also added the under as a position.

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

Our Position: 2 Team, 6 Point Teaser +100 Pittsburgh +8.5 and Cleveland -0.5

Opening Line: Baltimore -3

Current Line: Baltimore -2.5

Unofficial Line Pick for S&G: Pittsburgh +2.5

This teaser at +100 is offered by 5Dimes.  Often teasers are looked at as a square position; however they can be used effectively.  Jason Sample @SampleThis32 explained this earlier today.  We’ll get into this more in a later blog, but in addition to Jason thoughts, they are most useful when the lines are sharp, and the game is likely to be low scoring.  We see that in this matchup along with the previous sharpness described in the Cleveland / Cincinnati game.  In the first week, we expect this to be a low-scoring affair and a close game.  These teams are very evenly matched and therefore feel 2.5 is a true and sharp line.  The likelihood that Baltimore beats Pittsburgh by more than a TD (something they haven’t done since 2006) is extremely low.  This tease also allows us to cross the all important numbers of 3 and 7 in Pittsburgh’s case (and 3 in the Brown’s case.)

½ ★ Plays

Tennessee @ Jacksonville

Our Position: Tennessee +3

Opening Line: Jacksonville -2.5

Current Line: Jacksonville -1

We tweeted this play out as soon as the news that David Garrard was cut came out.  We found this out on Twitter and released it on our Twitter @TheSportsMarket as soon as possible.  Clearly, Jacksonville will be effected, but were nervous to play more than a ½ unit without further research, so that’s why this was only a ½ unit play.  Please check our previous blog Insider Trading that covers the advantages Twitter can provide.

To recap our official 1★ positions: Atlanta -1.5, Cleveland/Cincinnati under 37, New York Giants -3, Carolina/Arizona under 37, Minnesota +9, Denver -2, Oakland/Denver under 40.5, Teaser of 2 Teams / 6 Points / +100 Pittsburgh +8.5/Cleveland -0.5.  Our ½ ★ position is Tennessee +3.